Thursday, October 31, 2013

Terrorism / Disaster signature continues: Outlook 31 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P -6.8 (-0.4%); Markets were down and choppy today as social mood hovered above a short term support.  The "disaster or terrorist activity" should be in the next day or two, if such an event is going to take place in connection with the current mood pattern.


 (click to enlarge)
- - -
Overview: Social mood has dropped hard and fast over the last couple of days.  Fortunately, it is near a support area, so whatever happens, it won't be a "straight down" type event.  Social mood reflects aggression and "righteous agendas."  The themes in the news are associated with the perception of destruction, deterioration, or disaster; also, government intervention may be possible.  Markets should be right behind the social mood drop.  Whether it happens today, or in a few days, something abrupt and tragic is very near.

Today's Market Outlook is down, choppy (-0.1% to -0.65%);  While the news signal is near unchanged at the time of this posting, the social mood signal is moderately down.
 
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggression and "righteous agendas."  The mood themes found in the news are associated with destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, protests, and terrorist activity.  An abrupt change and something of a tragic nature is indicated as a highly likely occurrence within the next few days.
 
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has turned down from the resistance area (see this post for more info).  Markets should momentarily turn down sharply.
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.
 
Today’s social mood signal is -10.5 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 
 
(click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is -1.4 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 
(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. 

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Disaster or Terrorist Activity?- Something Big is Near: Outlook 30 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P -8.7 (-0.5%); Markets did turn down today, accelerating after the FOMC meeting as bonds sold off and interest rates climbed.  The "disaster or terrorist activity" may be later this week.


 (click to enlarge)
 
- - -
Overview: Social mood appears to be deteriorating, and reflects both aggressiveness and instability.  The themes in the news are associated with the perception of destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  Mood is turning sharply down, markets are likely to follow.  Whether it happens today, or in a few days, something abrupt and tragic is near.

Today's Market Outlook is turning down to sharply down (-0.1% to -1.1%);  While the news signal is near unchanged at the time of this posting, the social mood signal is sharply down.
 
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with violence and instability.  The mood themes found in the news are associated with destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, protests, and terrorist activity.  An abrupt change and something of a tragic nature is indicated as a highly likely occurrence.
 
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is turning down from the resistance area (see this post for more info).  Markets should either pause or turn down sharply from here.
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp drop of more than 10%, just around the corner, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.
 
Today’s social mood signal is -18.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 
 
(click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is -0.9 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 
(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. 

Social Mood Deteriorating; Markets to Follow: Outlook 29 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P +9.8 (+0.56%); Mood has turned down, markets haven't caught on yet.  As long as markets remain below 1780, we are bearish.


 (click to enlarge)
 
- - -
Overview: Social mood appears to be deteriorating, and reflects both aggressiveness and instability.  The themes in the news are associated with the perception of destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  Mood is turning down, markets are likely to follow.

Today's Market Outlook is turning down (-0.3% to -0.5%);  Both social mood and news signals are negative for today.
 
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggressiveness and instability.  The mood themes found in the news are associated with destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, protests, and instability.
 
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is brushing against resistance (see this post for more info), so it will have a difficult time climbing past current levels.  Markets should pause or turn down from here.
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp drop of more than 10%, just around the corner, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.
 
Today’s social mood signal is -8.5 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 
 
(click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is -5.5 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 
(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. 

Monday, October 28, 2013

Mood Hits a Ceiling; Time for a Stock Market Drop?

The chart below shows that social mood (and the stock market) are at a social mood resistance area.  This means that optimism (or "animal spirits") is about to hit a top or at least pause.  For people that are interested in shorting the market, and have been looking for a time to get in, this would be a good spot.  Markets should either pause or turn down here (for those who like to play breakouts, they could short a break below 1760, the low end of the resistance area).  If they break above S&P 1780, then they are likely going to keep on going for a bit (closer to the 1800 mark).  A sharp turn down in mood would be another helpful signal that it was a good time to go short.  We will be watching closely over the next few days for a possible turn down in mood.

(click to enlarge)


Disclaimer: Don't trade if you can't afford to make mistakes.  Don't trade with money you need to pay the rent or other bills.  Suggestion is based on probability of success based on past performance.  There is no guarantee of success this particular time or any specific time in the future.

Cheering continues while at Destruction's Edge: Outlook 28 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P +2.3 (+0.13%); Markets do look like they are hitting a "ceiling," as expected.  Will the destructive signature  found in the mood reflected in the news themes show up as an actual news event?  Will the markets turn down for no reason at all?  Whatever it is, it is coming quickly.


 (click to enlarge)
 
- - -
Overview: Last hurrah continues, but be ready for an abrupt paradigm shift.  Uncertainty on the global outlook should be rising this week.  The themes in the news are associated with the perception of destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  Mood / market signals for today are positive as of the time of this posting, but its durability is questionable.

Today's Market Outlook is Up, but will it stay up? (0.5% to +0.7%);  Both social mood and news signals are positive for today as of the time of this posting.  Yet, the mood signals change coming.
 
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggressiveness.  The mood themes found in the news are associated with destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, uncertainty, and geopolitical escalation.
 
Near term market outlook: Social mood is now at resistance, so it will have a difficult time climbing past where it is as of Monday morning.  Markets should likewise run into a ceiling today or tomorrow.
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp drop of more than 10%, just around the corner, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.
 
Today’s social mood signal is +8.2 S&P points (+9.2 for the entire weekend's signal, Saturday through today).  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 
 
(click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is +3.2 S&P points (+11.9 for the entire weekend's signal, Saturday through today).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 
(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. 

Friday, October 25, 2013

The Last Big Hurrah! - Outlook 25 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P +7.5 (+0.43%); Looks like social mood is back in sync on trend and for the day.  Turning process may be near completion.  Next week could be interesting!


 (click to enlarge)
 
- - -
Overview: It may not be the most exuberant hurrah ever, but today's social mood indicates a near ending of chapter, and with a slightly positive note.  The markets today should end on a fairly positive note. 

Today's Market Outlook is Up! (0.1% to +0.6%);  Both social mood and news signals are positive today.  Mood and markets should be back in sync again, the evidence will be up markets.
 
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with an ending of a chapter.  The mood themes found in the news show an assumption that in spite of an unsteady economy, the government at least has the markets covered (literally, the greed and power people).  The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of instability, protests, and terrorist activity.
 
Near term market outlook: Social mood is just about at resistance, so it will have a difficult time climbing past where it is.  Markets should likewise run into a ceiling either today or early next week.
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in a topping process all year.  When the current bounce is over, markets should be turning down and joining mood in a period of decline. 
 
Today’s social mood signal is +1.9 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 
 
(click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is +10.0 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 
(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. 

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Next day or two: Big Surge, then... Outlook 24 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P +5.7 (+0.33%); While social mood and markets are in step with trend, we may have to wait another day or so for mood and markets to be in sync on a daily basis.


 (click to enlarge)
 
- - -
Overview: Today's social mood indicates a tired optimism; the mood from themes in the news shows a tired mania.  While there still may be another big push up in the markets in the next day or so, the mood is near ready to shift and the markets with that.  Today should be another day of ambiguity in the markets.  They may start one way and end another, for example. 

Today's Market Outlook is Mixed or Down (0% to +0.6%);  Both social mood and news signals are negative today.  If mood and markets are back in sync again, markets will be down today.
 
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with people who are tired of how things have been, tired of aggression, arguing and uncertainty.  The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and geopolitical escalation.
 
Near term market outlook: Social mood has gone past resistance and may continue to climb until the next area of resistance which is almost immediately ahead.  There should be at least one more large surge ahead in the next day or two.  Following that, the mood and the markets my turn back down.
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend is down.  When the current bounce is over, markets should be turning down and joining mood in a period of decline. 
 
Today’s social mood signal is -10 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 
 
(click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is -0.8 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 
(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. 

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Maintain that High or Self-Destruct!: 23 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P -8.3 (-0.47%); As suspected, the turning process was still in progress today causing the mood and market opposition to continue.  However, there's a good chance that by tomorrow social mood and the markets will be back in sync.


 (click to enlarge)
 
- - -
Overview: Collective mood portrays either a sense of irrational exuberance or manic destructiveness (or both).  Today's potentially large market moves could bring resolution to the mood/market divergence that has been observed over the past week or so. 

Today's Market Outlook is Up (+1.0% to +1.2%)   Both social mood and news signals are strongly positive today, but the trend change is still in process.  This may continue to result in inverted model results where mood is opposing the markets.  If so, today could end up being a strong down move.  However, it turns out, a large directional move today should resolve the mood/market divergence that has been showing up over the past week or so.
 
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with either a desperate pushing or utter exhaustion. The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and geopolitical escalation.
 
Near term market outlook: Social mood is at resistance; markets are at a turning point.  If mood and markets do not turn down immediately, a strong positive surge into a new range could be at hand.
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend is down.  When the current bounce is over, markets should be turning down and joining mood in a period of decline. 
 
Today’s social mood signal is +19.3 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 


(click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is +17.2 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 
(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. 

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Looking Shaky: Outlook 22 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P +9.99 (+0.57%); A strange mix showed up today as this major turning process continued to play out.  Even with the markets ending up over 1/2%, the VIX (i.e. the fear index) ended up even more than that.  The markets are currently running inverted to the social mood signal.  That is expected to right itself when this turning process is complete.

An interesting headline on the VIX today: VIX Trader Pays $6.7 Million Betting Fear Gauge May Double


 (click to enlarge)
- - -
Overview: Social mood shows a combination of aggression and increasing uncertainty.  Today's news is likely to be considered somewhat negative.  Markets remain at a major turning point. 

Today's Market Outlook is Down (-0.2% to -0.3%).  Both social mood and news signals are negative today, but the trend change is still in process.  This may create choppy or confused markets.
 
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggression with increasing uncertainty combined with "bad news."  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and geopolitical escalation.
 
Near term market outlook: Social mood is at resistance; markets are at a turning point.  If mood and markets do not turn down immediately, a strong positive surge into a new range could be at hand.
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend is down.  When the current bounce is over, markets should be turning down and joining mood in a period of decline. 
 
Today’s social mood signal is -4.6 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

(click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is -2.8 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 
(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. 

Monday, October 21, 2013

Major Turning in Progress, Bumpy Road Ahead: Outlook 21 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P +0.16 (+0.01%); Market does indeed appear to be undergoing a turning point, as the entire day showed uncertain action near the unchanged line.  A directional move did not occur as this turning process is still in progress.



 (click to enlarge)
- - -
Overview: Social mood shows an almost desperate, last gasp, surge of aggression or optimism.  Today's news is likely to be considered somewhat negative.  Markets are at a major turning point.  Will they turn down from here, or begin a new range upward?

Today's Market Outlook is Uncertain, Directional (-0.1% to +1.2%).  A strong directional move is expected today.  Whether it will be up or down is unclear due to a trend change in progress.  Social mood is desperately trying to push ahead, the news (or global reality) is dragging it down.
 
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with a desperate striving toward optimism in the face of bad news.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and geopolitical escalation.
 
Near term market outlook: Social mood is at resistance; markets are at a turning point.  If mood and markets do not turn down immediately, a strong positive surge into a new range could be at hand.
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend is down.  When the current bounce is over, markets should be turning down and joining mood in a period of decline. 
 
Today’s social mood signal is +12.1 S&P points (+20.7 S&P points for the entire weekend signal, Saturday through Monday).  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 (click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is -2.6 S&P points (-1.9 S&P points for the entire weekend signal, Saturday through Monday).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 
(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. 

Friday, October 18, 2013

Major Socioeconomic Turning Point Days Away: Outlook 18 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P +11.2 (+0.65%); Today wasn't the day.  We'll look for it next week.


 (click to enlarge)
- - -
Overview:  An interesting divergence has been showing up over the past few days.  Wall Street has been hoping and then celebrating the debt deal, while overall collective mood has been signaling a major breakdown is fast approaching.  Will it begin today?  Or, will today once again see this divergence strengthen and tension pulled even tighter towards an eventual snap back?

Today's Market Outlook is Turning Down (-0.2% to -1.3%) At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the signal from the news are negative.  If the market breaks down, the overbought condition of the market (relative to collective mood) may result in a sharper drop than indicated by today's collective mood signals alone.  The stronger negative number in the outlook above, -1.3%, accounts for this.
 
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with an increase in protests, complaints, and self-sacrifice for an ideology.  Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news is anything under the basic heading of general "bad news."  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity; yet also, new diplomatic possibilities.
 
Near term market outlook: Social mood is hovering near support (see chart below).  A serious breakdown in the markets may begin at any time.
 
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  Markets should be turning down and joining mood in a period of decline. 
 
Today’s social mood signal is -5.5 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 (click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is -4.1 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. 

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Back to Normal? Outlook 17 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P +11.4 (+0.66%); Markets continued to climb, in spite of slowly deteriorating social mood.  Art Cashin, a regular on CNBC likened the persistent market climb to the tech bubble of 1999-2001.  With social mood at support, a sharp break down below that may be the signal that the markets will have no choice but to follow.  The next few days are critical to long term direction.


 (click to enlarge)
- - -
Overview:  The U.S. government shutdown is over and there was no default, at least there shouldn't be one this year.  The social mood shows a slight relaxing of the aggressiveness that has been pervasive.  The mood depicted by themes in the news reflects waning uncertainty, mania and the perception of "bad news"  The stock market may try to continue its recent uptrend, but the collective mood is a heavy weight pulling it down.  It's unclear how far it will continue going beyond where the mood will support.  Very soon, the rubber band will snap.

Today's Market Outlook is Confused, and Down (-0.2% to -0.3%) At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the signal from the news are negative.  If the market turns down, the overbought condition of the market (relative to collective mood) may result in a sharper drop than indicated by the models.
 
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with a slight relaxation of aggressiveness.  Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are the unexpected, protests, terrorism, and general "bad news."  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity; yet also, new diplomatic possibilities.
 
Near term market outlook: Social mood is hovering near support (see chart below).  A serious breakdown in the markets may begin at any time.
 
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  Markets should be turning down and joining mood in a period of decline. 
 
Today’s social mood signal is -4.4 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 (click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is -3.4 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 
(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. 

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Scrambling, Arguing, and Blaming: Outlook 16 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P +23.4 (+1.4%); Markets soared as time came for the debt deal to be made and the crisis resolved.  That's when the blame game started.  Even with the deal, or perhaps because of it, Republicans are in trouble.  The high divergence between the timid collective mood signals and the action in the stock market will bear close watching over the next few days.  The relief seen in Wall Street does not appear to translate to the general public or world at large.  Here are some of the headlines coming in on the blame game theme, and frustration at the further arguing ahead:

The right's angry response to the House GOP's collapse

Boehner caves

Relief to be short in emerging debt deal

 (click to enlarge)
- - -
Overview:  A U.S. government shutdown is in day 16, and participants should continue to be aggressively and desperately pushing their side's agendas.  The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, confusion, mania and the perception of "bad news"  Markets may be confused, jostled by every rumor and hope, but the overall outlook is down.

Today's Market Outlook is Confused, and Down (-0.1% to -0.4%) At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the signal from the news are negative.  If the market turns down, the overbought condition of the market (relative to collective mood) may result in a sharper drop than indicated by the models.
 
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with a desperate forward pushing.  Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are uncertainty, the unexpected, chaos, protests, and terrorism.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.
 
Near term market outlook: Social mood is hovering near support (see chart below).  A serious breakdown in the markets may begin at any time.
 
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The overall market trend should be down. 
 
Today’s social mood signal is -5.1 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 (click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is -1.9 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 
(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. 

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Surprising News: Outlook 15 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P -12.1 (-0.7%); Not sure the news was that surprising so far today, although it has seemed to rattle the hopeful camp some.  This morning people were somewhat optimistic a deal was near in the U.S. shutdown.  As of market close, each group seemed to still be boldly marching in their own direction with little chance of resolution this evening.  Are there more or larger surprises ahead?  The market call for today of uncertain/mixed played out well.  The markets today opened sharply down, climbed back above zero about two hours in, went sideways for a few hours, then ended back at the lows.

evening update:  Here's a surprise:  House vote delayed, chaos continues.  "Reid said he was 'blindsided by the news from the House.'"
 (click to enlarge)
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Overview:  A U.S. government shutdown is in day 15, and participants should be aggressively and desperately pushing their side's agendas while trying not to appear weak or vulnerable.  Social mood today is supportive of a possible breakthrough in group leadership or doing the right thing for the group (a shutdown deal?)  The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, confusion, mania and the perception of "bad news."  If the stock market starts in one direction, look for possible breaking news to change the direction.

Today's Market Outlook is Mixed / Uncertain (-0.7% to +0.7%) At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is moderately positive, yet the signal from the news is moderately negative.  If the market turns down, the overbought condition of the market (relative to collective mood) may result in a sharper drop than indicated by the models.
 
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with a desperate forward pushing, and trying not to appear weak or vulnerable.  Social mood today is supportive of a possible breakthrough in group leadership or doing the right thing for the group.  Could there be a deal in the debt/shutdown crisis?  Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are uncertainty, the unexpected, chaos, protests, and terrorism.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.
 
Near term market outlook: Social mood is hovering near support (see chart below).  A serious breakdown in the markets may begin at any time.
 
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The overall market trend should be down. 
 
Today’s social mood signal is +11.4 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

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Today’s news signal is -11.0 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 
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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.