Increasing Agitation: Outlook 18 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -6.7 (-0.37%); Markets started up today, but then abruptly turned down, right in line with the collective mood signal.  The overall trend is still up unless social mood breaks below support. 

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting increased aggression and agitation.  Themes in the news are reflecting government or government intervention, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster (this might be related to the tornado outbreak on Sunday and overnight).  Markets are likely to be down today.

Today's Market Outlook is slightly to moderately down (-0.2% to -0.5%);  both the social mood signal the signal from themes in the news are negative.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting increased aggression and agitation.  Themes in the news are reflecting government or government intervention, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of uncertainty, rising aggression and agitation.  

 

Near term market outlook: Trend is expected to be generally up as long as the mood signal does not go below current levels.

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is  -3.6  S&P points (-8.5 S&P points for the entire weekend, Saturday through Monday) as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -4.7 S&P points as of the time of this posting (-3.3 S&P points for the entire weekend, Saturday through Monday).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.