A Very Scary Week: Aug 16-22, 2015

Next week's news stories will be violent and volatile, and the mood in the U.S. extremely serious, according to social mood projections. 

The stock market the week of Aug 16 should see an end of a pattern.  The most likely move is sharply down at least through sometime on Friday.

 

A News Driven Week: Mood & Market Aug 9-15, 2015

 

This week is all about the news (or data), especially news outside of the United States, and building tension surrounding it.  People are feeling generally anxious as the week begins.  There should be a shift around Thursday as the background news becomes more volatile or violent, and people begin to feel more cautious.

 

The way this pattern plays out in the market is not exactly bullish, but is markedly different from the previous week.  There should be a noticeable shift on Thursday from what takes place on Monday through Wednesday.  Whether the "Aversion" taking hold on Thursday manifests as short covering in the stock market or a sell off will depend on how the market does on Monday-Wednesday.

 

Rising Uncertainty: Mood & Market Aug. 2-8, 2015

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Change is in the air, and uncertainty is rising, according to U.S. collective mood projections for the week of Aug 2.  Expect earlier understandings and assumptions to be challenged, and people to be even more challenging.  A background of international issues are likely to be in the news, and have the attention of U.S. people.

 

Markets could be extra confusing or constricted for much of this week.  Although there is the possibility of a market disruption of some type, overall, it looks like it would probably be a good week for traders to take a vacation.     

The big climax: Market Mood July 27-31, 2015

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Risk aversion reaches a peak the week of July 27 with a backdrop of violence in the news, according to this week's projected social mood pattern.  Spatial analysis shows risk aversion in the United States to be greater than the previous week, indicating further market losses are likely.  However, the bearish mood will not likely continue past this week, at least in the near term. 

 

A "new paradigm" pattern early in the week indicates that markets could attempt a new direction as early as late Monday.  Thursday and Friday volatility should pick up, and large moves are likely.   

 

Uncertainty vs. Hope: Market Mood July 13-17, 2015

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The week of July 13 is characterized by a struggle between uncertainty about the global situation and the desire to hope that everything is going to be OK.  This will create an unusually choppy (or whipsaw) condition in the markets.  Spatial analysis shows risk aversion in the United States to be slightly less this week than last week.  While conditions are not yet clearly bullish, they appear to be less bearish than the previous week.

 

 

Tentative optimism is projected to wane early in the week and be replaced by a nervous hope midweek.  By the end of the week, it may seem that it was too early to hope, as strong market moves return to the picture.

 

U.S. Market & Mood July 6-10, 2015

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According to social mood projections, Monday should be the most solidly bearish day for the stock market, and the middle of the week, the most clearly bullish or optimistic.  A major shift in the market pattern should take place near the end of the week at the same time that social mood shows increased instability of one type or another is likely to be a focal point of the news.  Spatial analysis shows that the most disruptive events are likely to occur outside of the United States.  Regardless, they should to get America's attention.

U.S. Market & Mood: June 29-July 2, 2015

Risk aversion may peak early in the week.  By midweek, a shift in the pattern shows a new mindset beginning to take hold. Market losses this week are likely going to be greater than last week's.


Social mood shows less willingness to cooperate and an increase in belligerence and willingness to challenge authority.  Tension is likely to lead to a climactic action either during this week or the following one.

Update July 2: Markets were down 1.1% this week.  This is a greater loss than the previous week's 0.5%.