The stock market the week of Aug 16 should see an end of a pattern. The most likely move is sharply down at least through sometime on Friday.
Showing posts with label crash. Show all posts
Showing posts with label crash. Show all posts
Thursday, August 13, 2015
A Very Scary Week: Aug 16-22, 2015
The stock market the week of Aug 16 should see an end of a pattern. The most likely move is sharply down at least through sometime on Friday.
Thursday, October 2, 2014
U.S and Global Trends, Remainder of 2014
In January, we published a summary of expectations for 2014. Using a translation of then available social mood data into cyclical projections for the upcoming year, we filled in the blanks with a best-guess narrative for 2014. The data showed a large spike in oil/fuel prices in March and April, surrounding an international crisis. There were indications that the Iran negotiations could run into difficulty. We put those together in our narrative. The actual picture was much more complex, with several new situations. In March and April the Ukrainian crisis was accompanied by an increase in oil/gas prices and volatility of global markets. In fact, on March 2, from our daily data, we were able to announce as imminent, a large international crisis impacting the U.S. only a few hours before news broke about Ukraine and possible Russian involvement.
The global situations continued to unfold. In June, ISIS was an issue, and the continued stability of Iraq was a concern. Social mood data continued to lack the signs of full relief and release that would indicate things might settle down for more than a moment. In our last post (August 7), our conclusion was that these waves of global disasters were not finished. We stopped posting after that. What more could we keep saying that would be of any use? Why continue to drone on with "more disasters to come?" On September 29, a reader commented, asking for an update. We decided to oblige.
Looking back at the data we had at the beginning of the year, we can now add to the narrative, as many of the details surrounding context has been filled in (Undoubtedly, there are also new surprises yet to come).
Our forecast for the stock market (S&P) for the year was near unchanged. Based on that, in our January presentation we said not to worry about a total market meltdown, and assured the Fed would do what it needed to keep the market at least near unchanged. At this point, with the market still up about 5% for the year, many different scenarios could result in ending the year with the market near 1850. One of those would include a sharp drop (crash) and modest recovery. Another is a large rally followed by a sharp drop. Another would be a slow meltdown from current levels. No matter how we get there, the expectation is that we end the year somewhere near 1850.
Health issues came up in our data for the year, but we decided not to emphasize this point. We mentioned in the summary that it would be a good idea to get rest, exercise, eat healthy, etc. Six months ago, the data started showing signs of an approaching epidemic affecting the U.S. As we saw stories of Ebola in West Africa, we were quietly crossing our fingers that this had nothing to do with the U.S. indicators (what could we say, and to who?). As of a few days ago, Ebola arrived in the U.S. If the data reflected actual likely U.S. numbers of Ebola cases, this would not be anything like the plague in fatalities, but would definitely cause people to be concerned, possibly changing behaviors in public places. It is likely that there would be quite a few more cases (more than double digits) before this is over.
Finally, a major turning point was mentioned in the summary occurring shortly before the November elections in the September/October timeframe. We are in the midst of this now. During this period, the focus of the U.S. government (and people) shifts from international issues to domestic issues. There is not a lack of international issues, but a shift of priorities. Economic concerns should increase, and possibly other matters of a domestic nature. Also mentioned in the summary, is that incumbents are not likely to do well in the elections. These internal issues are the reasons why. As the year comes to a close, the U.S. may also look more weak or vulnerable to the rest of the world than it has for some time. This may be due to the issues now beginning to come into focus.
On the positive side, there is a better chance than there has been all year, for diplomatic agreements to be reached in November or December. It will be seen how this affects dealings with Iran, Russia, and China in the coming months.
The global situations continued to unfold. In June, ISIS was an issue, and the continued stability of Iraq was a concern. Social mood data continued to lack the signs of full relief and release that would indicate things might settle down for more than a moment. In our last post (August 7), our conclusion was that these waves of global disasters were not finished. We stopped posting after that. What more could we keep saying that would be of any use? Why continue to drone on with "more disasters to come?" On September 29, a reader commented, asking for an update. We decided to oblige.
Looking back at the data we had at the beginning of the year, we can now add to the narrative, as many of the details surrounding context has been filled in (Undoubtedly, there are also new surprises yet to come).
Our forecast for the stock market (S&P) for the year was near unchanged. Based on that, in our January presentation we said not to worry about a total market meltdown, and assured the Fed would do what it needed to keep the market at least near unchanged. At this point, with the market still up about 5% for the year, many different scenarios could result in ending the year with the market near 1850. One of those would include a sharp drop (crash) and modest recovery. Another is a large rally followed by a sharp drop. Another would be a slow meltdown from current levels. No matter how we get there, the expectation is that we end the year somewhere near 1850.
Health issues came up in our data for the year, but we decided not to emphasize this point. We mentioned in the summary that it would be a good idea to get rest, exercise, eat healthy, etc. Six months ago, the data started showing signs of an approaching epidemic affecting the U.S. As we saw stories of Ebola in West Africa, we were quietly crossing our fingers that this had nothing to do with the U.S. indicators (what could we say, and to who?). As of a few days ago, Ebola arrived in the U.S. If the data reflected actual likely U.S. numbers of Ebola cases, this would not be anything like the plague in fatalities, but would definitely cause people to be concerned, possibly changing behaviors in public places. It is likely that there would be quite a few more cases (more than double digits) before this is over.
Finally, a major turning point was mentioned in the summary occurring shortly before the November elections in the September/October timeframe. We are in the midst of this now. During this period, the focus of the U.S. government (and people) shifts from international issues to domestic issues. There is not a lack of international issues, but a shift of priorities. Economic concerns should increase, and possibly other matters of a domestic nature. Also mentioned in the summary, is that incumbents are not likely to do well in the elections. These internal issues are the reasons why. As the year comes to a close, the U.S. may also look more weak or vulnerable to the rest of the world than it has for some time. This may be due to the issues now beginning to come into focus.
On the positive side, there is a better chance than there has been all year, for diplomatic agreements to be reached in November or December. It will be seen how this affects dealings with Iran, Russia, and China in the coming months.
Sunday, July 20, 2014
Time to Panic?
We've been watching the setup develop for months of what has turned out to be a long and painful process, as the world fights to hold on to a sense of growth, expansion, and/or aggression (the alternatives being contraction, depression, and/or despair). We called the first chapter of "World in Crisis" which we then discovered included the beginnings of the Ukraine crisis, a missing Malaysian airliner, and a Korean ferry disaster. Part II of this "World in Crisis" phenomenon saw ISIS take parts of Iraq and Syria, eruption of conflict with Israel/Gaza, further escalation in Ukraine, and another downed Malaysian aircraft with all aboard lost. Part III is nearing.
There has been a steady negative social mood trend for two weeks. Intraday movement (volatility) has begun to increase in the stock market, yet markets have managed to stay nearly flat. Pressure is leaning on the markets for a 3% drop, just to catch up to where social mood has recently deteriorated to. The grand finale we have been watching for in the recent series of world events is not yet here, but as said previously, a drop in the market should be a clear signal that it's getting close. The next few days could be quite informative.
There has been a steady negative social mood trend for two weeks. Intraday movement (volatility) has begun to increase in the stock market, yet markets have managed to stay nearly flat. Pressure is leaning on the markets for a 3% drop, just to catch up to where social mood has recently deteriorated to. The grand finale we have been watching for in the recent series of world events is not yet here, but as said previously, a drop in the market should be a clear signal that it's getting close. The next few days could be quite informative.
Wednesday, March 5, 2014
Latest Info on Global / U.S. Crisis: 6-13 March 2014
Early on 28 February, we posted about an imminent Global crisis that would strongly impact the U.S. and its people. Hours later, the Ukraine crisis began. The latest info shows that the U.S. impact from this or additional events will show up as soon as tomorrow. This could be the beginnings of the greatest crisis the U.S. has faced in years.
This summarizes the available information from social mood patterns on this upcoming crisis:
1) The likely timeframe is March 6-13. 2) Although dramatic in effect on the U.S. it does not likely involve large U.S. casualties like most "disasters." 3) The social mood configuration shows a rising risk of panic. 4) The category of event is MoodCompass type NE which would usually show up as a) an economic disaster, b) an "attack" (i.e. a perceived "victimization") from a geopolitical entity, or c) if a natural disaster, a winter storm. 5) There is little chance of it being a natural disaster. 6) The precipitating cause is most likely an international disaster or crisis, meaning it could involve further fallout from the Ukraine crisis.
The top chart below shows the relatively low estimated U.S. fatalities of this "disaster." For this reason, as well as the indication of it originating outside of the U.S., we are referring to it as a "crisis." If the second chart is looked at carefully, especially beginning with the Boston Marathon event, the pattern can be observed which makes this crisis appear especially serious.
This summarizes the available information from social mood patterns on this upcoming crisis:
1) The likely timeframe is March 6-13. 2) Although dramatic in effect on the U.S. it does not likely involve large U.S. casualties like most "disasters." 3) The social mood configuration shows a rising risk of panic. 4) The category of event is MoodCompass type NE which would usually show up as a) an economic disaster, b) an "attack" (i.e. a perceived "victimization") from a geopolitical entity, or c) if a natural disaster, a winter storm. 5) There is little chance of it being a natural disaster. 6) The precipitating cause is most likely an international disaster or crisis, meaning it could involve further fallout from the Ukraine crisis.
The top chart below shows the relatively low estimated U.S. fatalities of this "disaster." For this reason, as well as the indication of it originating outside of the U.S., we are referring to it as a "crisis." If the second chart is looked at carefully, especially beginning with the Boston Marathon event, the pattern can be observed which makes this crisis appear especially serious.
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Thursday, February 13, 2014
Party's about Over: Outlook 14 Feb '14
after market update: actual S&P +8.81 Markets are seriously overbought. Will the rally continue much longer? Watch for the update Monday near 12am ET.
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Overview: Collective mood indicates the ending of a chapter, and a struggle to hold onto optimism that looks about to be lost. Mood signals for the day indicate a sell off in the markets is likely. We've been watching for a high impact U.S. disaster or tragic event since late January. Will the current ice storm have enough impact to get us out of this disaster zone, or will pressure continue to build only to erupt in something bigger? We will know in a few days.
Overview: Collective mood indicates the ending of a chapter, and a struggle to hold onto optimism that looks about to be lost. Mood signals for the day indicate a sell off in the markets is likely. We've been watching for a high impact U.S. disaster or tragic event since late January. Will the current ice storm have enough impact to get us out of this disaster zone, or will pressure continue to build only to erupt in something bigger? We will know in a few days.
Near Term: While markets have rallied quite a bit in the past few days, social mood signals have been hovering in the 1740-1760 area (see Google trends chart below). The mood signal is now just below support which may indicate an imminent break down.
Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping. Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress. The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact. Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.
Today's Signals: -11.7 from Google Hot Trends, -1.4 from Themes in the News. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.
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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Economic Issues Rising: Outlook 2 January '14
after market update: actual S&P -16.4. Today's sell-off was in line with collective mood's signal and indication of rising global economic issue. Markets are now slightly oversold relative to mood in the short term. Will that mean a bounce tomorrow?
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Overview: Collective mood reflects global trends of aggression and violence, but almost as a desperate attempt to ward off perceptions of weakness. There's an elevated global risk for economic issues to surface. Mood signals for the day indicate a moderate market sell-off is likely.
Today's Signals: -8.7 from Google Hot Trends, -4.3 from Themes in the News. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.
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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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Friday, December 13, 2013
Big Day? - Outlook 13 December '13
after market update: actual S&P -0.2 (-0.01%); Markets were nearly unchanged all day. The big divergence between social mood and markets show that a climax is near. We will have to wait until early next week to see how social mood and markets resolve this divergence.
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Overview: The social mood pattern for today reflects aggression and rising emotions. Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster, with a possible connection with government or government intervention. Markets could be sharply down today. There is still a U.S. disaster/tragic event watch for another day or two (see Next American Tragedy).
Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to sharply down (0% to -0.8%). The social mood signal is sharply down, and the signal from themes in the news is near unchanged. A climax may be near. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
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Near term mood outlook: aggression and rising emotions. Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster, with a possible connection with government or government intervention. The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects an elevated global risk of violence, protests, and an elevated risk of geopolitical escalation; there are rising economic concerns in the background.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets.
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months. This topping process appears to be in its final stages. A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, may be in its early stages.
Today’s social mood signal is -14.2 S&P points as of the time of this posting. On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.
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Today’s news signal is -0.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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Sunday, December 1, 2013
Future Looking Less Certain: 2 December '13
after market update: actual S&P -4.9 (-0.27%); Markets tried to rally, but with social mood continuing to deteriorate, uncertainty was looming too loudly for an up day.
Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately down (0% to -0.6%). Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are negative. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories. Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model. The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. Stock market data source: Google Finance. This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research. It is not intended to be trading advice.
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Overview: Social mood is reflecting rising passions, and willingness to take action, including violence. Themes in the news are general "bad news" and a vulnerability to attack and/or economic downturn. There is a watch for a very serious news event in the next few days. While the N.Y. train derailment could conceivably qualify, it is more likely something on a larger scale, still just around the corner. Markets are likely to range from nearly unchanged to moderately down today.
Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately down (0% to -0.6%). Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are negative. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
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Near term mood outlook: rising passions, and willingness to take action, including violence. Themes in the news are general "bad news" and a vulnerability to attack and/or economic downturn. The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a high global risk of violence, protests, and a high risk of terrorist activity.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below primary support (1760) which signals a serious downturn in social mood that is also likely to be followed by the markets.
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months. There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon. Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.
Today’s social mood signal is -10.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting. On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
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Today’s news signal is -0.1 S&P points as of the time of this posting. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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Thursday, November 28, 2013
Major Global Turning Point Dead Ahead: Outlook 29 November '13
after market update: actual S&P -1.4 (-0.08%); Markets were little changed, but the VIX was up over 5%. This signals nervousness going into the weekend. We'll know by Monday if their fears pan out or not. Either way, something very serious is brewing that is likely to change our collective reality in a big way.
Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately up (0% to +0.8%). Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are positive. However, the signals over the last few days show a sharp downturn may be imminent. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories. Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model. The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. Stock market data source: Google Finance. This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research. It is not intended to be trading advice.
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Overview: Social mood is reflecting the combination of celebration with family and manic Gray Thursday shopping. The risk of protests and civil unrest is high. While this can be seen strongly showing up in places like Thailand, the full expression of this mood component may stay in check for another day or two in the U.S. Themes in the news are reflecting either a vulnerability to attack and/or economic downturn. Markets are likely to range from nearly unchanged to moderately up today. Watch for a news event that may drastically change our collective realities in the next few days.
Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately up (0% to +0.8%). Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are positive. However, the signals over the last few days show a sharp downturn may be imminent. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting confusion, greed, and group cohesion (i.e. Thanksgiving with family). The risk of protests and civil unrest is high, along with the possibility of terrorist activity. Themes in the news are reflecting either a vulnerability to attack and/or economic downturn. The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global ending of a chapter or paradigm.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below primary support (1760) which signals a serious downturn in social mood that is also likely to be followed by the markets.
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months. There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon. Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.
Today’s social mood signal is +1.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting. On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
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Today’s news signal is +14.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Disaster or Terrorist Activity?- Something Big is Near: Outlook 30 Oct. '13
after market update: actual S&P -8.7 (-0.5%); Markets did turn down today, accelerating after the FOMC meeting as bonds sold off and interest rates climbed. The "disaster or terrorist activity" may be later this week.
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Overview: Social mood appears to be deteriorating, and reflects both aggressiveness and instability. The themes in the news are associated with the perception of destruction, deterioration, or disaster. Mood is turning sharply down, markets are likely to follow. Whether it happens today, or in a few days, something abrupt and tragic is near.
Today's Market Outlook is turning down to sharply down (-0.1% to -1.1%); While the news signal is near unchanged at the time of this posting, the social mood signal is sharply down.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with violence and instability. The mood themes found in the news are associated with destruction, deterioration, or disaster. The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, protests, and terrorist activity. An abrupt change and something of a tragic nature is indicated as a highly likely occurrence.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is turning down from the resistance area (see this post for more info). Markets should either pause or turn down sharply from here.
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year. There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon. Yet, a sharp drop of more than 10%, just around the corner, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.
Today’s social mood signal is -18.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
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Today’s news signal is -0.9 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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Monday, October 14, 2013
Expect the Unexpected: Outlook 14 Oct. '13
after market update: actual S&P +7.0 (+0.4%); The uncertainty and the unexpected for today so far was that there was talk of progress, but a meeting with the President was postponed, and markets went up on hope. Will the next surprise be that a deal is made, or that there is no hope whatsoever? Either way, markets are outpacing what social mood will support. Something has to give.
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 14, and participants should be aggressively and desperately pushing their side's agendas while trying not to appear weak or vulnerable. The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, confusion, surprise, and the perception of chaos. The stock market may be at the beginning of a serious decline.
Today's Market Outlook is Down (-0.1% to -0.5%). At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the signal from the news are negative. The overbought condition of the market (relative to collective mood) may result in a sharper drop than indicated by the models.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggressive, but desperate forward pushing, and trying not to appear weak or vulnerable. It is not conducive to a genuine breakthrough in negotiations in the U.S. government impasse. Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are uncertainty, confusion, the unexpected, chaos, protests, and terrorism. This particular pattern also corresponds with news of unexpected, chaotic natural events such as tornadoes and earthquakes. The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.
Near term market outlook: Social mood is once again trying to break below support (see chart below). A serious breakdown in the markets may begin at any time.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down. The overall market trend should be down.
Today’s social mood signal is -9.5 S&P points (-8.3 S&P points for the entire weekend Saturday through Monday). Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
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Today’s news signal is -3.4 S&P points ( -1.1 S&P points for the entire weekend Saturday through Monday). News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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Friday, October 4, 2013
Over the Edge of the Cliff: Outlook 4 Oct '13
after market update: actual S&P +11.8 (+0.7%); Markets climbed steadily today, even with no apparent progress on the shutdown. However, unless social mood rises from its current position, a 4% drop in the S&P in the next few days is the most likely outcome. Why that happens, whether from the shutdown or some other named reason, is yet to be seen.
End of day update: News story reflecting today's social mood of angry and exasperated-- With No New Plan, Boehner Makes Angry Plea on Shutdown
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 4, and people are getting angry and exasperated. Social mood reflects both aggression and desperation. The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, confusion, and attempting to avoid appearing irrational or delusional. Markets are expected to drop about 4% in the next few days. This may or may not occur today.
Today's Market Outlook is Near unchanged to down sharply (0% to -0.4% or greater). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is negative, and the signal from the news is barely negative. Markets are expected to drop about 4% in the next few days. This may or may not occur today. A major influence on today's outlook is the chart below "today's social mood signal."
End of day update: News story reflecting today's social mood of angry and exasperated-- With No New Plan, Boehner Makes Angry Plea on Shutdown
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 4, and people are getting angry and exasperated. Social mood reflects both aggression and desperation. The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, confusion, and attempting to avoid appearing irrational or delusional. Markets are expected to drop about 4% in the next few days. This may or may not occur today.
Today's Market Outlook is Near unchanged to down sharply (0% to -0.4% or greater). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is negative, and the signal from the news is barely negative. Markets are expected to drop about 4% in the next few days. This may or may not occur today. A major influence on today's outlook is the chart below "today's social mood signal."
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggression and desperation. Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are uncertainty, confusion, and attempts to avoid appearing irrational or delusional. The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below support. Next support is a 4% drop. A sharp drop of up to 4% is expected in the next few days. It may or may not happen today.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down. As long as it stays at or below its current level, it can be assumed that the trend is down.
Today’s social mood signal is -6.0 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Signal has broken below support. Next support is a 4% drop. A sharp drop of up to 4% could happen at any time now.
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Today’s news signal is -0.4 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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Today's expected stock market range is calculated from -0.4 S&P points (news signal) to -6.0 S&P points (social mood signal), or-0% to -0.4%. It is also based on technical analysis of the social mood signal over the past three months.
Sunday, September 29, 2013
As News Deteriorates, Markets are Heading over the Cliff
Various pundits say the U.S. budget and debt limit crisis could affect the markets and possibly unravel the fragile economic recovery that apparently is on its way. If Monday's preliminary collective mood charts are even close to the final version we will publish in about 18 hours, there could definitely be a problem.
Our preliminary charts for Monday show a plunge in the mood reflected by the news. They also show social mood dipping below support. Does this mean a sharp market drop is at hand? On Friday, in our after market notes, we shared this: "If both the mood and the news go south over the weekend, that could spell big trouble next week."
Hmmm...
Below are the preliminary charts for Monday. They show a 1-2% drop is possible on Monday. The news chart is pretty ominous looking, but the top one, the social mood chart is actually hopeful, as it is bad but not terrible. As that will be behind the decisions made, and it hasn't solidly broken down, markets may hang in there and not drop precipitously. Perhaps there is even a chance for a last minute deal. Stay tuned for the final chart early Monday morning.
Our preliminary charts for Monday show a plunge in the mood reflected by the news. They also show social mood dipping below support. Does this mean a sharp market drop is at hand? On Friday, in our after market notes, we shared this: "If both the mood and the news go south over the weekend, that could spell big trouble next week."
Hmmm...
Below are the preliminary charts for Monday. They show a 1-2% drop is possible on Monday. The news chart is pretty ominous looking, but the top one, the social mood chart is actually hopeful, as it is bad but not terrible. As that will be behind the decisions made, and it hasn't solidly broken down, markets may hang in there and not drop precipitously. Perhaps there is even a chance for a last minute deal. Stay tuned for the final chart early Monday morning.
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Thursday, September 26, 2013
Eyes on Washington; Market Breakdown?: Outlook 26 Sept '13
after market update: actual S&P +5.88 (+0.35%); There was a focus on Washington, yet the markets climbed anyway. There was an upward breakout followed by a drop to near unchanged, ending with about half of the early gains. Markets were one directional, as forecasted, refusing to spend one moment negative today.
BTW, the reason for the uncertainty around direction of breakout on our end (see Today's Market Outlook below), was that the social mood to market model was in the midst of a polarity flip today. We could tell that the markets today would be directional, but not which direction.
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Overview: The mood shows movement in a specific direction; a focus on leadership. After two doji days, markets should be ready to make a definite move. Will U.S. government leadership shake things up today? Will it be a break down or break through?
Today's Market Outlook is Unchanged to Breakout (near -0.1% or breakout move in either direction). Both social mood and the news appear to be slowly breaking below support. A large market drop may be at hand. At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the news signals are slightly negative. There is therefore a bias in the negative direction. The mood, however, will support a one directional move in either direction.
BTW, the reason for the uncertainty around direction of breakout on our end (see Today's Market Outlook below), was that the social mood to market model was in the midst of a polarity flip today. We could tell that the markets today would be directional, but not which direction.
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Overview: The mood shows movement in a specific direction; a focus on leadership. After two doji days, markets should be ready to make a definite move. Will U.S. government leadership shake things up today? Will it be a break down or break through?
Today's Market Outlook is Unchanged to Breakout (near -0.1% or breakout move in either direction). Both social mood and the news appear to be slowly breaking below support. A large market drop may be at hand. At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the news signals are slightly negative. There is therefore a bias in the negative direction. The mood, however, will support a one directional move in either direction.
Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with leadership and directional movement. Common news themes associated with the current news mood pattern are uncertainty, confusion, and volatility. The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, terrorist activity, and geopolitical escalation. Diplomatic endeavors or negotiations are not likely to succeed at this time, as a mood of genuine cooperation is almost non-existent.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down; the bounce over the last month appears to be complete. However, confirmation of a continuation of the long term downtrend has not yet occurred.
Today’s social mood signal is -2.6 S&P points. Signal is at support, the next few days are critical to direction. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
Today’s news signal is -1.9 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
Thursday, September 19, 2013
At the Edge of a Cliff: Outlook 20 Sept '13
after market update: actual S&P -12.6 (-0.7%); Markets opened nearly unchanged, up about 0.2%. Following this, they slowly declined the rest of the day. The House passed a stopgap funding bill, tied to defunding Obamacare. Does this give us the title for the next "chapter"-- the U.S. funding/debt crisis? Does today mark the first step off the cliff?
news ties markets and this next chapter together: Dow down nearly 200 points as uncertainty returns
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Overview: The mood portrays a perception of an "ending of a chapter." This together with the sharp drop in social mood showing up over the last few days, indicates that the new reality showing up next week may be quite surprising and disturbing.
news ties markets and this next chapter together: Dow down nearly 200 points as uncertainty returns
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Overview: The mood portrays a perception of an "ending of a chapter." This together with the sharp drop in social mood showing up over the last few days, indicates that the new reality showing up next week may be quite surprising and disturbing.
Today's Market Outlook is Nearly Unchanged (-0.1% to +0.3%). A sharp stock market drop is likely to begin within a few days. Social mood is sharply down over the past several days, and the markets should be joining the trend by early next week. At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is slightly positive, and the news signal is barely negative.
Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with perceptions that a national or global "chapter" is ending, and a new one very near beginning. Common news themes associated with the current news mood pattern are uncertainty, confusion, and over-indulgence. The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, terrorist activity, and geopolitical escalation. Diplomatic endeavors or negotiations are not likely to succeed at this time, as a mood of genuine cooperation is almost non-existent.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned sharply down; the bounce over the last month appears to be complete.
Today’s social mood signal is +4.9 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
Today’s news signal is -0.5 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
Sharp Deterioration of Social Mood: Outlook 19 Sept '13
after market update: actual S&P -3.2 (-0.2%); The sharp drop in mood did not yet translate into a sharp market drop as the trend change takes hold and people collectively struggle with assessing a new reality.
news stories that fit today's themes: 13 Wounded as Gunmen Open Fire in Chicago Park
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Overview: A sharp stock market drop is likely in the next few days. Social mood is sharply down, and the markets are within a day or two of joining the trend. In the early stages of a trend change there is often confusion and hesitation as forces pull in both directions, and people try to make sense of the changes they are perceiving. Estimated losses for today as high as 1-2%.
news stories that fit today's themes: 13 Wounded as Gunmen Open Fire in Chicago Park
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Overview: A sharp stock market drop is likely in the next few days. Social mood is sharply down, and the markets are within a day or two of joining the trend. In the early stages of a trend change there is often confusion and hesitation as forces pull in both directions, and people try to make sense of the changes they are perceiving. Estimated losses for today as high as 1-2%.
Today's Market Outlook is Sharply Down. The social mood signal is strongly negative. At the time of this posting, the news signal is slightly positive. News signal momentum indicates a trend change is near.
Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with perceptions of destruction, deterioration, and violence or volatility. Common news themes associated with the current pattern are confusion, and violence or volatility. The combined pattern at times accompanies violence, instability, terrorist activity, and geopolitical escalation. Diplomatic endeavors or negotiations are not likely to succeed at this time, as a genuine mood of cooperation is almost non-existent.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned sharply down; the bounce over the last month appears to be complete.
Today’s social mood signal is -18.2 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
Today’s news signal is +4.0 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
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