Global Disasters not yet finished

Recap: the MoodCompass team reported a disaster indicator peaking near August 1-8 that would impact the United States, but be more destructive outside the U.S. (see last few posts). It continues to play out.

Tropical storm Iselle will hopefully turn out to pack less of a punch to Hawaii than feared.  However, the MoodCompass disaster indicator says there is an even higher likelihood globally for natural disasters or major global changes tomorrow (8 Aug) than there were today.  The approximately 1 week period of an anticipated cluster of disasters began to show on 2 August with toxic water in Ohio, a potentially deadly inconvenience.  The following day, a major earthquake in China toppled thousands of homes and killed 600 people.  Today, 7 Aug, a rare hurricane landfall in Hawaii may cause some damages, but hopefully they will be minimal.  Tomorrow and into early next week, this global disaster wave should continue to play itself out.  Best case, it will soon run out of steam and fade away.  All that is clear today, is that it isn't over yet.

Global Cluster of Disaster-type Events Underway

As mentioned in previous posts, a global cluster of disaster-type events has begun, and it may be another week before this disaster wave peaks (current data shows it is not even near peak yet).  While the most destructive events should be located outside the United States, the U.S. will not be immune.

Saturday kicked it off with Ohio's forth largest city suddenly finding itself waterless due to toxins found in the drinking water. This has resulted in the governor declaring a state of emergency.  See news story.

On Sunday, over 12,000 homes were destroyed in China due to a large earthquake.  The current death toll is near 400.  See story.

There should be another week or possibly more filled with headlines of death, destruction, disease, and/or toxicity.  This is the measureable shift in consciousness we have already made in collectively turning away from a focus on global violence, aggression, and expansion.  It just hasn't yet all shown up in the news.  Give it a week or two.  We will have a new global focus, new types of collective troubles to worry about.  Perhaps it doesn't have to be this way, but for now, this is what gets our collective attention, and allows us to globally shift gears.



For more info on The MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

Update, 1st Week of August Event, 2014

On 24 July, we announced a disaster or tragic event of high impact to the United States was near and most likely to occur between August 1-8, 2014.  Also, that more information would be available in the days ahead as to the type of event that was anticipated.

The shift in social mood points to a collective desire to shift *away* from global violence as people become concerned with new types of threats.  Some of these new types of concerns, such as disease and economic issues have already begun to surface as Ebola makes headlines and market volatility spikes.  Environmental tragedies and natural events that relate to water or fluid such as severe storms, flooding, a tsunami, or volcanic eruptions (lava) may also be a part of this cluster.

At this time, we can say the following about likely events of this period:
1) The bulk of the destructive components of these events should be international (non-U.S.) in origin.
2) There could be a significant economic component or impact to the U.S.
3) The event or series of events should dominate U.S. conversation and air-wave time for days if not weeks.

For more info on The MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

Stock Market Panic Ahead?

As we await more information about a tragic event that should strongly impact the U.S. any day now (signal indicates most likely timeframe August 1-8, see previous post), the stock market is indicating strong bias toward a sharp sell-off.  In addition, today's social mood is showing a shift toward "panic."  Something big is brewing.  The chart below shows how the stock market has been generally in the same spot for three weeks, while social mood has lead the way steadily down (mood most often leads the market's direction).

 

U.S Disaster, 1st Week of August, 2014

A U.S. disaster signal has been detected by the MoodCompass Project team after many months of little to no U.S. disaster activity.  It should be of significant emotional impact to most people within the U.S., and will most likely include loss of life greater than seen in average news stories; economic losses are also likely.

We will wait a few more days before presenting further information about the likely type of disaster while we sift through our data, and get additional information.

A disaster signal is generated when the relationship between U.S. social focus (social mood measured by top Google Hot Trends) and social mood factors found in the top U.S. news stories meets certain criteria.  You can see in the chart below, that the U.S. disaster mood factor today spiked up from the low range area it normally hovers in.  This means that there is a significant risk of a U.S. disaster in the near future, most likely between 7 and 14 days from now, or August 1 - 8.

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The second chart (below), is a snap shot of the intensity of these factors.  The greatest specific threat showing up as of today is mass violence or terrorism.  However, we will be getting more information in the next few days.

 

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War, not diplomacy: Outlook 7 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates a trend toward war and away from diplomacy.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (most likely before 13 March).  This may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It may well be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  Market direction for today is unclear.

Near Term: Mood signals have shown a sharp drop while markets remain at or near record highs (see Google trends chart below).  Since social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes, a sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: +3.7 from Google Hot Trends, -0.5 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Latest Info on Global / U.S. Crisis: 6-13 March 2014

Early on 28 February, we posted about an imminent Global crisis that would strongly impact the U.S. and its people.  Hours later, the Ukraine crisis began.  The latest info shows that the U.S. impact from this or additional events will show up as soon as tomorrow.  This could be the beginnings of the greatest crisis the U.S. has faced in years.

This summarizes the available information from social mood patterns on this upcoming crisis:
1) The likely timeframe is March 6-13.  2) Although dramatic in effect on the U.S. it does not likely involve large U.S. casualties like most "disasters."  3) The social mood configuration shows a rising risk of panic.  4) The category of event is MoodCompass type NE which would usually show up as a) an economic disaster, b) an "attack" (i.e. a perceived "victimization") from a geopolitical entity, or c) if a natural disaster, a winter storm.  5) There is little chance of it being a natural disaster.  6) The precipitating cause is most likely an international disaster or crisis, meaning it could involve further fallout from the Ukraine crisis. 

The top chart below shows the relatively low estimated U.S. fatalities of this "disaster."  For this reason, as well as the indication of it originating outside of the U.S., we are referring to it as a "crisis."  If the second chart is looked at carefully, especially beginning with the Boston Marathon event, the pattern can be observed which makes this crisis appear especially serious.

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U.S. Panic as soon as tomorrow: Outlook 5 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates rising risk of panic.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (most likely between 6-13 March).  This may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It may well be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  Market direction for today is unclear.

Near Term: Mood signals have shown a sharp drop while markets remain at or near record highs (see Google trends chart below).  Since social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes, a sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: +0.6 from Google Hot Trends, +3.6 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Outlook 4 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates rising risk aversion.  There is an extreme risk of a major natural disaster outside the U.S.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (within a few days away).  This may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It could be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  A sell-off in the markets is likely.

Near Term: Mood signals have not rallied to record highs along with the markets (see Google trends chart below). and are breaking down below support.  A sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: -5.6 from Google Hot Trends, -3.5 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Escalating Violence and Volatility: Outlook 3 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates high risk of violence and geopolitical escalation.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (within a few days away).  It may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It could be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  A sharp sell-off in the markets is likely.

Near Term: Mood signals have not rallied to record highs along with the markets (see Google trends chart below). and are breaking down below support.  A sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: -19.7 from Google Hot Trends, -17.4 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

(click to enlarge)

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

World in Crisis; U.S Government and People not immune

Update 2 March 2014: This was posted hours *before* the Ukraine crisis occurred.
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This is a BIG ONE, and it is imminent!

 

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The above chart shows that a U.S. disaster is imminent that could be on the scale of Boston Marathon or Hurricane Sandy.  The Arapahoe High School shooting, and the recent cluster of ice storms were just a warm up; they did not sufficiently resolve the “disaster pressure.” 

 

Also, the usual indicators of scale (see chart below) do not show large scale damages for any of the normally anticipated disaster types.  Because of this, we am referring to the event as a major “crisis.”

 

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 The type of crisis from the social mood pattern is NE.  The most likely types of events that show up with type NE are an economic disaster, an attack from another geopolitical entity, or if a natural disaster, a winter storm.  It’s also associated with anxiety and risk aversion.

 This must be the beginning of the big March/April crisis we have been watching for.  Whatever it is, we will all know shortly.

No Imminent U.S. Disasters - Pax did it

Since the end of January, a U.S. disaster or tragedy was waiting to happen (see post).  Although the latest big ice storm Pax fit the description of the type of disaster predicted by the social mood patterns, as described in the earlier post, it was unclear whether it would create sufficient "release" of "disaster pressure" (for lack of better words to describe it), or whether something else was right around the corner.  Today we can issue an all clear for imminent major U.S. tragic events.

Social mood data gave U.S. natural disaster fatality estimates of 18 though February 14, and 27 as of February 14.  As of 14 February, Pax death toll was estimated at 25.  There were record flight cancellations, a 100 car pile up in Pennsylvania, and economic losses from closures of shops, transportation, etc.  This article (Winter storm leaves 25 dead in US East Coast, more than 2100 flights cancelled) gives further details.  The Pax event fulfilled the scale of disaster supported by collective mood.

Below is the latest chart of the differential between social mood and mood themes found in the news.  The "orange line" referred to in the earlier post has been added to the chart after Pax.  This signifies the required release has occurred.

While disasters or tragic events can occur anywhere at anytime, there are no signals from collective mood for any imminent major tragic events within the United States.

 

Party's about Over: Outlook 14 Feb '14

after market update: actual S&P +8.81  Markets are seriously overbought.  Will the rally continue much longer?  Watch for the update Monday near 12am ET.

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Overview:  Collective mood indicates the ending of a chapter, and a struggle to hold onto optimism that looks about to be lost.  Mood signals for the day indicate a sell off in the markets is likely.  We've been watching for a high impact U.S. disaster or tragic event since late January.  Will the current ice storm have enough impact to get us out of this disaster zone, or will pressure continue to build only to erupt in something bigger?  We will know in a few days.

Near Term: While markets have rallied quite a bit in the past few days, social mood signals have been hovering in the 1740-1760 area (see Google trends chart below).  The mood signal is now just below support which may indicate an imminent break down.   

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -11.7 from Google Hot Trends, -1.4 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Is Pax the Big U.S. Disaster?

The graph below shows the scale of disaster that is likely to occur if the anticipated disaster or tragedy occurs on 14 February or later (under that is the graph for before 14 February).  Will storm Pax claim another 10 or even more lives in the next day or two, or will pressure continue to build, creating an even larger disaster in another few weeks?  That is the current question being asked as the current social mood data is compared with previous disasters.

 

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Since late January, after Storm Leon, a United States disaster has been "waiting" to happen.  The chart below shows the divergence between U.S. collective mood and mood themes in top U.S. news stories since July 2012.  Recently, there has been an amazing repeating occurrence of severe ice storms the next two times the line in this chart got into the same area as Leon.  Nika was bad, but Pax looks like it could be worst of all.

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Storm Nika did not relieve the "pressure" that would have been released if that was the disaster.   After the Boston Marathon bombing, the Navy Yard shooting of a few months ago, and even the Arapahoe High School shooting, there is a noticeable drop in the chart marked by an orange line.  This has not yet occurred in this cluster.

The most likely type of event expected, as indicated by current collective mood patterns is type NE.  This would probably be an economic event, or a Winter Storm if a natural event is the disaster.  Looking at the pattern occurring for this entire cluster, the most likely event would be type NE and SW.  This would likely be an international economic event that impacts the United States, a geopolitical escalation that the U.S. feels victimized by (e.g. act of war or internationally sponsored terrorist attack), or, if a natural event, a Winter Storm with heavy precipitation and winds.

Is Pax finally going to be the event that relieves this building pressure?  It certainly fits the type, and some are saying that Pax may be one for the history books, but our suspicions are that something else is still to come.  Yet, Pax could be the big disaster that will get rid of this growing monster of potential.  The only way to know for sure will be after the fact.  If a sharp drop shows up in the chart (i.e. the orange "release" lines) then we will know it was the big one.  Whatever shows up as the disaster or tragic event when it does appear, will impact us all on some level.  It will be something everyone talks about for days.
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Update 2/14/14: Pax death toll is estimated at 25.  There were record flight cancellations, a 100 car pile up in Pennsylvania, and economic losses from closures of shops, transportation, etc.
Winter storm leaves 25 dead in US East Coast, more than 2100 flights cancelled.  Fatality estimates from social mood data (see charts at top) was 18 through February 14, and 27 if the event after February 14.  Something much bigger than Pax is coming if it was not "bad enough" to relieve the disaster pressure.  It fit the estimate, so perhaps this might be it.   In the next day or two we should know.

Next "U.S." Disaster could be the Sochi Olympics

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A few days ago, we were wondering if the Superbowl might be the next major U.S. tragedy.  However, as we mentioned in the post, it seemed more likely that it would be an event with an international component.  The Sochi Olympics has the international component and is related to sports.  This imminent disaster, however it will manifest, still appears to be quickly approaching.

To repeat what was said in the earlier post: the Disaster Curve (see above) peaked on 31 January 2014.  This means that if the pattern continues as it has over the past couple of years, the next major U.S. tragic event is imminent.  The Boston Marathon bombing occurred 6 days after the peak immediately before it.  The Navy Yard shooting several months ago occurred only 1 day after the peak preceding it.  We are now on day 4.

The type of disaster or tragic event can take many forms, but the current social mood pattern can often give us clues.  The current pattern indicates that it will likely be type SW.  This is associated with international events, the military, acts of war, sports, and leadership (e.g. the President or high ranking U.S. leader).  Should there be a natural U.S. event on the horizon, type SW is most often associated with a volcano or flood.  Globally, there may be disasters or tragic events during this period that are also of this same type.

While the event doesn't have to be related to sports, the Sochi Olympics as disaster would fit several of the key themes listed above for type SW.  Let us hope and pray that the athletes and spectators stay out of harms way.  We will know soon enough what this disaster curve has been trying to tell us.

Next U.S. tragedy: Is it the Superbowl?

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The Disaster Curve (see above) peaked on 31 January 2014.  This means that if the pattern continues as it has over the past couple of years, the next major U.S. tragic event is imminent.  The Boston Marathon bombing occurred 6 days after the peak immediately before it.  The Navy Yard shooting several months ago occurred only 1 day after the peak preceding it. 

The type of disaster or tragic event can take many forms, but the current social mood pattern can often give us clues.  The current pattern indicates that it will likely be type SW.  This is associated with international events, the military, acts of war, sports, and leadership (e.g. the President or high ranking U.S. leader).  Should there be a natural U.S. event on the horizon, type SW is most often associated with a volcano or flood.  Globally, there may be disasters or tragic events during this period that are also of this same type.

While sports is one of the listed probable types of events, and Superbowl Sunday is only two days away, that does not necessarily mean that the Superbowl will be subject to attack, yet it does merit a close watch.  It is likely that whatever occurs has an international component or leads to war or the brink of war.  We will have to see how this shapes up over the next few days.
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Update 1 Feb '14: Here's the volcano, but not the U.S. thing yet.
                             Wow!  Another one!
Update 5 Feb '14: Storm Nika-- "flood" or heavy precipitation of ice and snow with near record power outages.

Next U.S. Tragedy Days Away

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The United States is about to experience another major tragedy.  This one should be more impactful to the average American than the Arapahoe High School shooting was.  Depending on where the current upswing in the above chart peaks, this next event should be more impactful than the Navy Yard shooting of a few months ago, and possibly near the subjective impact of the Boston Marathon event of last year.

 

Without getting into the details of the chart this time around, the event should occur within a day or two of the next peak in the above chart.  It may be a mass violence event, but could be some other type of tragedy that allows people to emotionally connect with what is happening in the news.

Big Bad News this Weekend?

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Individually, this might be a great weekend for many people.  On a global scale, there is a big bad news story likely just around the corner.  Stock market trend changes tend to follow just behind social mood changes.  The news, on the other hand, tends to lag just behind that (believe it or not).  Social mood started showing a sharp drop beginning on January 12, 2014 (see #1 in chart above).  At this same time, the stock market was still moving sideways.  The news signal was still going up until January 22 (see #1 in chart below).

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The market is now sharply dropping.  According to the social mood signal (see #2 in Google Hot Trend chart), it should pause at least briefly in the S&P 1780 to 1800 area.  The news signal, on the other hand, has not yet shown its sharp drop.  That may come as soon as this weekend (see #2 in News chart).  It's possible that a "big bad news story" could accompany this.  It is also possible, that a relieving news story occurs relatively soon that leads to the market pause or bounce which is also right around the corner.

Please note that these are preliminary charts and were produced with data available as of January 24.  The official January 27 chart is not released until midnight (E.T.) of January 27.  Because of this we will not yet comment on area #3 in the Google Trends chart.

Don't miss out on seeing our global and U.S. overview for the year 2104 at: http://moodcompass-world.blogspot.com/2014/01/2014-global-and-us-overview.html
 

Outlook16 January '14

after market update: actual S&P -2.5.  Markets retreated from highs in a mostly sideways motion in line with social mood.  Markets remain highly overbought relative to collective mood signals.

 

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Overview:  Collective mood shows rising uncertainty and ambiguity. Mood signals for the day indicate a market that has little room left to rise, and markets are highly overbought relative to social mood.  In other words, it wouldn't take much of a nudge to initiate a sharp sell-off.

 

Near Term: Global mood trends show sharply rising uncertainty and ambiguity.  Near term social mood trend had been pushing against a "ceiling"(see Google Hot Trends chart below) but is now in process of turning down sharply. 

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping, but there is no sign that a major market shift is imminent.  The impact of human and natural disasters of late has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: +3.0 from Google Hot Trends, +0.2 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Panic or Disaster Imminent? - Outlook 15 January '14

after market update: actual S&P +9.5.  Markets rallied to new record highs, and are now seriously overbought relative to collective mood signals which have turned sharply down.

 

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Overview:  Collective mood shows rising perceptions of deterioration or disaster. Themes in the news reflect a perception of instability and uncertainty.  Mood signals for the day indicate a wide market range possible, from little changed to a sharp sell-off.

 

Near Term: Global mood trends show sharply rising instability and perceptions of deterioration or destruction.  Near term social mood trend had been pushing against a "ceiling"(see Google Hot Trends chart below) but is now in process of turning down sharply. 

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping, but there is no sign that a major market shift is imminent.  The impact of human and natural disasters of late has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -19.8 from Google Hot Trends, +4.4 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.