Update, 1st Week of August Event, 2014

On 24 July, we announced a disaster or tragic event of high impact to the United States was near and most likely to occur between August 1-8, 2014.  Also, that more information would be available in the days ahead as to the type of event that was anticipated.

The shift in social mood points to a collective desire to shift *away* from global violence as people become concerned with new types of threats.  Some of these new types of concerns, such as disease and economic issues have already begun to surface as Ebola makes headlines and market volatility spikes.  Environmental tragedies and natural events that relate to water or fluid such as severe storms, flooding, a tsunami, or volcanic eruptions (lava) may also be a part of this cluster.

At this time, we can say the following about likely events of this period:
1) The bulk of the destructive components of these events should be international (non-U.S.) in origin.
2) There could be a significant economic component or impact to the U.S.
3) The event or series of events should dominate U.S. conversation and air-wave time for days if not weeks.

For more info on The MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

War, not diplomacy: Outlook 7 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates a trend toward war and away from diplomacy.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (most likely before 13 March).  This may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It may well be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  Market direction for today is unclear.

Near Term: Mood signals have shown a sharp drop while markets remain at or near record highs (see Google trends chart below).  Since social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes, a sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: +3.7 from Google Hot Trends, -0.5 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Latest Info on Global / U.S. Crisis: 6-13 March 2014

Early on 28 February, we posted about an imminent Global crisis that would strongly impact the U.S. and its people.  Hours later, the Ukraine crisis began.  The latest info shows that the U.S. impact from this or additional events will show up as soon as tomorrow.  This could be the beginnings of the greatest crisis the U.S. has faced in years.

This summarizes the available information from social mood patterns on this upcoming crisis:
1) The likely timeframe is March 6-13.  2) Although dramatic in effect on the U.S. it does not likely involve large U.S. casualties like most "disasters."  3) The social mood configuration shows a rising risk of panic.  4) The category of event is MoodCompass type NE which would usually show up as a) an economic disaster, b) an "attack" (i.e. a perceived "victimization") from a geopolitical entity, or c) if a natural disaster, a winter storm.  5) There is little chance of it being a natural disaster.  6) The precipitating cause is most likely an international disaster or crisis, meaning it could involve further fallout from the Ukraine crisis. 

The top chart below shows the relatively low estimated U.S. fatalities of this "disaster."  For this reason, as well as the indication of it originating outside of the U.S., we are referring to it as a "crisis."  If the second chart is looked at carefully, especially beginning with the Boston Marathon event, the pattern can be observed which makes this crisis appear especially serious.

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U.S. Panic as soon as tomorrow: Outlook 5 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates rising risk of panic.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (most likely between 6-13 March).  This may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It may well be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  Market direction for today is unclear.

Near Term: Mood signals have shown a sharp drop while markets remain at or near record highs (see Google trends chart below).  Since social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes, a sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: +0.6 from Google Hot Trends, +3.6 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

(click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

(click to enlarge)

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Outlook 4 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates rising risk aversion.  There is an extreme risk of a major natural disaster outside the U.S.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (within a few days away).  This may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It could be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  A sell-off in the markets is likely.

Near Term: Mood signals have not rallied to record highs along with the markets (see Google trends chart below). and are breaking down below support.  A sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: -5.6 from Google Hot Trends, -3.5 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

  (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

(click to enlarge)

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Escalating Violence and Volatility: Outlook 3 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates high risk of violence and geopolitical escalation.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (within a few days away).  It may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It could be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  A sharp sell-off in the markets is likely.

Near Term: Mood signals have not rallied to record highs along with the markets (see Google trends chart below). and are breaking down below support.  A sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: -19.7 from Google Hot Trends, -17.4 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

  (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

(click to enlarge)

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

World in Crisis; U.S Government and People not immune

Update 2 March 2014: This was posted hours *before* the Ukraine crisis occurred.
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This is a BIG ONE, and it is imminent!

 

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The above chart shows that a U.S. disaster is imminent that could be on the scale of Boston Marathon or Hurricane Sandy.  The Arapahoe High School shooting, and the recent cluster of ice storms were just a warm up; they did not sufficiently resolve the “disaster pressure.” 

 

Also, the usual indicators of scale (see chart below) do not show large scale damages for any of the normally anticipated disaster types.  Because of this, we am referring to the event as a major “crisis.”

 

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 The type of crisis from the social mood pattern is NE.  The most likely types of events that show up with type NE are an economic disaster, an attack from another geopolitical entity, or if a natural disaster, a winter storm.  It’s also associated with anxiety and risk aversion.

 This must be the beginning of the big March/April crisis we have been watching for.  Whatever it is, we will all know shortly.

Party's about Over: Outlook 14 Feb '14

after market update: actual S&P +8.81  Markets are seriously overbought.  Will the rally continue much longer?  Watch for the update Monday near 12am ET.

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Overview:  Collective mood indicates the ending of a chapter, and a struggle to hold onto optimism that looks about to be lost.  Mood signals for the day indicate a sell off in the markets is likely.  We've been watching for a high impact U.S. disaster or tragic event since late January.  Will the current ice storm have enough impact to get us out of this disaster zone, or will pressure continue to build only to erupt in something bigger?  We will know in a few days.

Near Term: While markets have rallied quite a bit in the past few days, social mood signals have been hovering in the 1740-1760 area (see Google trends chart below).  The mood signal is now just below support which may indicate an imminent break down.   

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -11.7 from Google Hot Trends, -1.4 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

  (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Is Pax the Big U.S. Disaster?

The graph below shows the scale of disaster that is likely to occur if the anticipated disaster or tragedy occurs on 14 February or later (under that is the graph for before 14 February).  Will storm Pax claim another 10 or even more lives in the next day or two, or will pressure continue to build, creating an even larger disaster in another few weeks?  That is the current question being asked as the current social mood data is compared with previous disasters.

 

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Since late January, after Storm Leon, a United States disaster has been "waiting" to happen.  The chart below shows the divergence between U.S. collective mood and mood themes in top U.S. news stories since July 2012.  Recently, there has been an amazing repeating occurrence of severe ice storms the next two times the line in this chart got into the same area as Leon.  Nika was bad, but Pax looks like it could be worst of all.

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Storm Nika did not relieve the "pressure" that would have been released if that was the disaster.   After the Boston Marathon bombing, the Navy Yard shooting of a few months ago, and even the Arapahoe High School shooting, there is a noticeable drop in the chart marked by an orange line.  This has not yet occurred in this cluster.

The most likely type of event expected, as indicated by current collective mood patterns is type NE.  This would probably be an economic event, or a Winter Storm if a natural event is the disaster.  Looking at the pattern occurring for this entire cluster, the most likely event would be type NE and SW.  This would likely be an international economic event that impacts the United States, a geopolitical escalation that the U.S. feels victimized by (e.g. act of war or internationally sponsored terrorist attack), or, if a natural event, a Winter Storm with heavy precipitation and winds.

Is Pax finally going to be the event that relieves this building pressure?  It certainly fits the type, and some are saying that Pax may be one for the history books, but our suspicions are that something else is still to come.  Yet, Pax could be the big disaster that will get rid of this growing monster of potential.  The only way to know for sure will be after the fact.  If a sharp drop shows up in the chart (i.e. the orange "release" lines) then we will know it was the big one.  Whatever shows up as the disaster or tragic event when it does appear, will impact us all on some level.  It will be something everyone talks about for days.
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Update 2/14/14: Pax death toll is estimated at 25.  There were record flight cancellations, a 100 car pile up in Pennsylvania, and economic losses from closures of shops, transportation, etc.
Winter storm leaves 25 dead in US East Coast, more than 2100 flights cancelled.  Fatality estimates from social mood data (see charts at top) was 18 through February 14, and 27 if the event after February 14.  Something much bigger than Pax is coming if it was not "bad enough" to relieve the disaster pressure.  It fit the estimate, so perhaps this might be it.   In the next day or two we should know.

Outlook 12 December '13

after market update: actual S&P -6.7 (-0.4%); With today's respite in the social mood signal, markets tried hard most of the session to get positive.  Near the end of the session, however, they turned down.  The divergence between social mood and the markets signals a climax move is near.  Will it be tomorrow?

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Overview: The social mood pattern for today reflects sputtering aggression and rising economic concerns.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster, with a possible connection with government or government intervention.  Markets may be mixed and confused as the question over long term direction is pondered, although the near term trend has turned negative.  There is a U.S. disaster/tragic event watch for the next few days (see U.S. Disaster Imminent).

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to slightly up (0% to +0.3%).  The social mood signal is slightly up, and the signal from themes in the news is near unchanged.  Watch for either a confused, mixed market or a possible abrupt shift. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook:  sputtering aggression and rising economic concerns.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster, with a possible connection with government or government intervention.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects an elevated global risk of violence, protests, and an elevated risk of geopolitical escalation; there are rising economic concerns in the background.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. 

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, may be in its early stages.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +5.1 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.

 

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Today’s news signal is +0.4 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Outlook 11 December '13

after market update: actual S&P -20.4 (-1.3%); Markets were down hard today as investors find it more likely that the FOMC will begin tapering Quantitative Easing.  The sharp downturn is in line with the near term mood outlook as well as the near term market outlook (below).  However, with markets oversold versus the daily signal, will they at least try to bounce overnight or tomorrow?

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Overview: The social mood pattern for today reflects desperate aggression.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster, with a possible connection with government or government intervention.  Markets may be mixed and confused as the question over long term direction is pondered.

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to slightly down (0% to -0.2%).  The social mood signal is slightly down, and the signal from themes in the news is near unchanged.  Watch for either a confused, mixed market or a possible abrupt shift. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: desperate aggression.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster, with a possible connection with government or government intervention..  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects an elevated global risk of violence, protests, and an elevated risk of geopolitical escalation; there are rising economic concerns in the background.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. 

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, appears very close to beginning.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -2.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.

 

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Today’s news signal is -0.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Violence and Volatility: Global Outlook Wk of 19 Aug '13

Social Mood patterns indicate a spike in factors related to violence and volatility.  This pattern signals even more global violence and instability in the next few days.  Markets continue to look shaky as the week begins.  To add to the uncertainty, a short term trend change is near.


Update 8/23/2013:  There definitely was a spike in global violence, with the primary example being the Syria chemical attack and the possible counterattacks currently on the table. In the markets, there was at least a short term trend change as the markets continued down into mid-day Wednesday and then climbed through Friday.