Global Agression, Market Correction

This week looks notably bumpy, and worthy of a special public post.  As U.S. society is a part of the global system, U.S. social mood is a subset of the global mood pattern.  There is an abrupt shift (see chart below) in the U.S. pattern showing up sometime tomorrow (Tuesday).  Slight optimism becomes passion and "mild panic" (circled in the chart).  Then by Wednesday there is a sharp deflation of spirit, as the Expansion quality quickly drops below zero, and everyone holds their breath in a tension that lasts through Thursday.  The abruptness indicates that this may show up as something quite intense.  The smallness of it reflected in the U.S. mood, may indicate that the larger effect is happening somewhere else.

In addition to this abrupt shift in mood, the MarketMood weekly model is showing a brief, but possibly sharp, market correction, of up to 2% this week.  Also, the weekly social mood (not shown) shows an aggressive configuration that often goes with geopolitical escalation.  So, hang on, there may be some turbulence.

 

A News Driven Week: Mood & Market Aug 9-15, 2015

 

This week is all about the news (or data), especially news outside of the United States, and building tension surrounding it.  People are feeling generally anxious as the week begins.  There should be a shift around Thursday as the background news becomes more volatile or violent, and people begin to feel more cautious.

 

The way this pattern plays out in the market is not exactly bullish, but is markedly different from the previous week.  There should be a noticeable shift on Thursday from what takes place on Monday through Wednesday.  Whether the "Aversion" taking hold on Thursday manifests as short covering in the stock market or a sell off will depend on how the market does on Monday-Wednesday.

 

Global Disasters not yet finished

Recap: the MoodCompass team reported a disaster indicator peaking near August 1-8 that would impact the United States, but be more destructive outside the U.S. (see last few posts). It continues to play out.

Tropical storm Iselle will hopefully turn out to pack less of a punch to Hawaii than feared.  However, the MoodCompass disaster indicator says there is an even higher likelihood globally for natural disasters or major global changes tomorrow (8 Aug) than there were today.  The approximately 1 week period of an anticipated cluster of disasters began to show on 2 August with toxic water in Ohio, a potentially deadly inconvenience.  The following day, a major earthquake in China toppled thousands of homes and killed 600 people.  Today, 7 Aug, a rare hurricane landfall in Hawaii may cause some damages, but hopefully they will be minimal.  Tomorrow and into early next week, this global disaster wave should continue to play itself out.  Best case, it will soon run out of steam and fade away.  All that is clear today, is that it isn't over yet.

Time to Panic?

We've been watching the setup develop for months of what has turned out to be a long and painful process, as the world fights to hold on to a sense of growth, expansion, and/or aggression (the alternatives being contraction, depression, and/or despair).  We called the first chapter of "World in Crisis" which we then discovered included the beginnings of the Ukraine crisis, a missing Malaysian airliner,  and a Korean ferry disaster.  Part II of this "World in Crisis" phenomenon saw ISIS take parts of Iraq and Syria, eruption of conflict with Israel/Gaza, further escalation in Ukraine, and another downed Malaysian aircraft with all aboard lost.  Part III is nearing.

There has been a steady negative social mood trend for two weeks.  Intraday movement (volatility) has begun to increase in the stock market, yet markets have managed to stay nearly flat.  Pressure is leaning on the markets for a 3% drop, just to catch up to where social mood has recently deteriorated to. The grand finale we have been watching for in the recent series of world events is not yet here, but as said previously, a drop in the market should be a clear signal that it's getting close.  The next few days could be quite informative. 

 

War, not diplomacy: Outlook 7 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates a trend toward war and away from diplomacy.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (most likely before 13 March).  This may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It may well be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  Market direction for today is unclear.

Near Term: Mood signals have shown a sharp drop while markets remain at or near record highs (see Google trends chart below).  Since social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes, a sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: +3.7 from Google Hot Trends, -0.5 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

(click to enlarge)

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

(click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

(click to enlarge)

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

U.S. Panic as soon as tomorrow: Outlook 5 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates rising risk of panic.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (most likely between 6-13 March).  This may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It may well be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  Market direction for today is unclear.

Near Term: Mood signals have shown a sharp drop while markets remain at or near record highs (see Google trends chart below).  Since social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes, a sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: +0.6 from Google Hot Trends, +3.6 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

(click to enlarge)

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

(click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

(click to enlarge)

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Outlook 4 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates rising risk aversion.  There is an extreme risk of a major natural disaster outside the U.S.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (within a few days away).  This may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It could be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  A sell-off in the markets is likely.

Near Term: Mood signals have not rallied to record highs along with the markets (see Google trends chart below). and are breaking down below support.  A sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: -5.6 from Google Hot Trends, -3.5 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

  (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

(click to enlarge)

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Escalating Violence and Volatility: Outlook 3 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates high risk of violence and geopolitical escalation.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (within a few days away).  It may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It could be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  A sharp sell-off in the markets is likely.

Near Term: Mood signals have not rallied to record highs along with the markets (see Google trends chart below). and are breaking down below support.  A sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: -19.7 from Google Hot Trends, -17.4 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

  (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

(click to enlarge)

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

World in Crisis; U.S Government and People not immune

Update 2 March 2014: This was posted hours *before* the Ukraine crisis occurred.
- - -

This is a BIG ONE, and it is imminent!

 

(click to enlarge)

 

The above chart shows that a U.S. disaster is imminent that could be on the scale of Boston Marathon or Hurricane Sandy.  The Arapahoe High School shooting, and the recent cluster of ice storms were just a warm up; they did not sufficiently resolve the “disaster pressure.” 

 

Also, the usual indicators of scale (see chart below) do not show large scale damages for any of the normally anticipated disaster types.  Because of this, we am referring to the event as a major “crisis.”

 

(click to enlarge)

 The type of crisis from the social mood pattern is NE.  The most likely types of events that show up with type NE are an economic disaster, an attack from another geopolitical entity, or if a natural disaster, a winter storm.  It’s also associated with anxiety and risk aversion.

 This must be the beginning of the big March/April crisis we have been watching for.  Whatever it is, we will all know shortly.

Outlook 27 February '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates high risk of violence and increasing uncertainty globally.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  A sell-off in the markets is likely. 

Near Term: Mood signals have not rallied to record highs along with the markets (see Google trends chart below). and are breaking down below support.  A sharp drop in the near term is likely.

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -7.6 from Google Hot Trends, -4.1 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

  (click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Violent Uncertainty: Outlook 26 February '14

after market update: actual S&P +.04  Markets were extremely uncertain, and are now extremely overbought relative to daily social mood; a reckoning is very near.  

(click to enlarge)

- - -
Overview:  Collective mood indicates rising risk of violence and increasing uncertainty globally.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  A slight sell-off in the markets is likely. 

Near Term: Mood signals have not rallied to record highs along with the markets (see Google trends chart below). and are breaking down below support.  A sharp drop in the near term is likely.

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -6.2 from Google Hot Trends, -0.1 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

  (click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Outlook 25 February '14

after market update: actual S&P -2.49  Markets are becoming overbought relative to daily social mood; a reckoning is approaching.  Watch for the update near 12am ET.

(click to enlarge)

- - -
Overview:  Collective mood indicates rising risk of violence globally and a willingness to take action toward a goal.  A moderate to strong sell-off in the markets is likely. 

Near Term: While markets have been rallying recently, social mood signals have continued to hover in a tight range (see Google trends chart below).  Mood signals are now breaking down below support indicating a sharp drop is likely.

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -5.0 from Google Hot Trends, -15.8 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Global Violence and War: Outlook 24 February '14

 

Overview:  The global risk of violence, geopolitical escalation and/or new war talk is rising.  Collective mood indicates rising risk of violence globally and a willingness to take action toward a goal.  Mood signals for the day are strongly directional.  A strong sell-off in the markets is likely. 

Near Term: While markets have been rallying recently, social mood signals have continued to hover in a tight range (see Google trends chart below).  Mood signals are now breaking down below support indicating a sharp drop is likely.

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -29.6 from Google Hot Trends, -11.0 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

 (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

U.S. Disaster Nears: Outlook 31 January '14

after market update: actual S&P -11.6  The market was moderately down, in line with social mood signals.  When the disaster signal peaks indicating a U.S. tragic event is imminent, we will announce that.  Hopefully, it has nothing to do with the upcoming Superbowl this weekend. 

(click to enlarge)

- - -

Overview:  Collective mood shows aggression, and perceptions of deterioration.  Mood signals for the day indicate a moderate decline in the markets is likely.  A U.S. disaster or major tragic event is a few days away (see 28 Jan. post).  The curve we have been waiting to top is showing signs of peaking, but has not yet turned down.  When it does, the anticipated event becomes imminent (within a day or two).

Near Term: Global mood trends imply a profound transformation in the global landscape taking place in the background.  It may be another few days to a few weeks to know all that this is pointing to.  The social mood trend had been turning down sharply, but after briefly bouncing off support has been scraping along it (see Google trends chart below).  

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "caution," yet there is no definitive signal that a major market shift is imminent.  The impact of human and natural disasters of late has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -7.3 from Google Hot Trends, -2.1 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

  (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice

Outlook 30 January '14

after market update: actual S&P -18.3  Today was the bounce we have been watching for all week from near S&P 1780 (it was from S&P 1772).  Markets rallied to 1800, but couldn't get past that (social mood also indicated a resistance area there, which was discussed yesterday).

(click to enlarge)

- - -

Overview:  Collective mood shows uncertainty coupled with vulnerability or weakness.  Mood signals for the day indicate little change in the markets is likely.  The next market support area indicated by social mood signals is near S&P 1760.  Markets are extremely oversold relative to daily social mood signals and may try to stage a significant bounceback.

Near Term: Global mood trends imply a profound transformation in the global landscape taking place in the background.  It may be another few days to a few weeks to know all that this is pointing to.  The social mood trend had been turning down sharply, but has reached support and has begun to turn up from there.  Markets may try to stabilize here, but may require a "climax" event first.  The next major market support indicated by social mood is the S&P 1760 area.

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "caution," yet there is no definitive signal that a major market shift is imminent.  The impact of human and natural disasters of late has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -3.6 from Google Hot Trends, +5.4 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

  (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice

Outlook 29 January '14

after market update: actual S&P -18.3  Futures tried and failed to get past 1800 overnight (see comments under Overview below).  Markets opened down and stayed down, yet several sharp pops showed the readiness for a relief rally.  Markets continue to be extremely oversold relative to social mood daily signals, and a major bounceback is likely just around the corner.

 

(click to enlarge)

- - -
Overview:  Collective mood shows a transition in progress.  Mood signals for the day indicate a moderate rally in the markets is likely.  Markets are extremely oversold relative to daily social mood signals and may try to stage a significant bounceback. Yet, mood signals also indicate that there should be sizeable resistance near S&P 1800.

Near Term: Global mood trends imply a profound transformation in the global landscape taking place in the background.  It may be another few days to a few weeks to really know what this is pointing to.  The social mood trend had been turning down sharply, but has reached support and has begun to turn up from there.  The market equivalent of this mood signal area is S&P 1780 - 1800.

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "caution," yet there is no definitive signal that a major market shift is imminent.  The impact of human and natural disasters of late has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: +4.8 from Google Hot Trends, +5.4 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

  (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice

Outlook 28 January '14

after market update: actual S&P +10.94  Markets were sideways all day, but the 1780 support indicated by social mood signals (see Near Term below), seems to be holding for now.  Markets continue to be extremely oversold relative to social mood daily signals, which could possibly fuel a major bounceback.

 

(click to enlarge)

- - -

Overview:  Collective mood shows a transition in progress.  Social mood signals give near term market support near S&P 1780.  Mood signals for the day indicate little net change in the markets is likely.  However, markets are extremely oversold relative to daily social mood signals and may try to bounce off of support. 

Near Term: Global mood trends imply a profound transformation in the global landscape taking place in the background.  It may be another few days to a few weeks to really know what this is pointing to.  The social mood trend had been turning down sharply, but has reached support.  This may pause or reverse the downtrend in the near term.  The market equivalent of this mood signal area is S&P 1780.

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "caution," yet there is no definitive signal that a major market shift is imminent.  The impact of human and natural disasters of late has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -3.3 from Google Hot Trends, -0.3 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

  (click to enlarge)

Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice