The graph below shows the scale of disaster that is likely to occur if the anticipated disaster or tragedy occurs on 14 February or later (under that is the graph for before 14 February). Will storm Pax claim another 10 or even more lives in the next day or two, or will pressure continue to build, creating an even larger disaster in another few weeks? That is the current question being asked as the current social mood data is compared with previous disasters.
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Since late January, after Storm Leon, a United States disaster has been "waiting" to happen. The chart below shows the divergence between U.S. collective mood and mood themes in top U.S. news stories since July 2012. Recently, there has been an amazing repeating occurrence of severe ice storms the next two times the line in this chart got into the same area as Leon. Nika was bad, but Pax looks like it could be worst of all.
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Storm Nika did not relieve the "pressure" that would have been released if that was the disaster. After the Boston Marathon bombing, the Navy Yard shooting of a few months ago, and even the Arapahoe High School shooting, there is a noticeable drop in the chart marked by an orange line. This has not yet occurred in this cluster.
The most likely type of event expected, as indicated by current collective mood patterns is type NE. This would probably be an economic event, or a Winter Storm if a natural event is the disaster. Looking at the pattern occurring for this entire cluster, the most likely event would be type NE and SW. This would likely be an international economic event that impacts the United States, a geopolitical escalation that the U.S. feels victimized by (e.g. act of war or internationally sponsored terrorist attack), or, if a natural event, a Winter Storm with heavy precipitation and winds.
Is Pax finally going to be the event that relieves this building pressure? It certainly fits the type, and some are saying that Pax may be one for the history books, but our suspicions are that something else is still to come. Yet, Pax could be the big disaster that will get rid of this growing monster of potential. The only way to know for sure will be after the fact. If a sharp drop shows up in the chart (i.e. the orange "release" lines) then we will know it was the big one. Whatever shows up as the disaster or tragic event when it does appear, will impact us all on some level. It will be something everyone talks about for days.
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Update 2/14/14: Pax death toll is estimated at 25. There were record flight cancellations, a 100 car pile up in Pennsylvania, and economic losses from closures of shops, transportation, etc.
Winter storm leaves 25 dead in US East Coast, more than 2100 flights cancelled. Fatality estimates from social mood data (see charts at top) was 18 through February 14, and 27 if the event after February 14. Something much bigger than Pax is coming if it was not "bad enough" to relieve the disaster pressure. It fit the estimate, so perhaps this might be it. In the next day or two we should know.
