Economic Issues Rising: Outlook 2 January '14

after market update: actual S&P -16.4.  Today's sell-off was in line with collective mood's signal and indication of rising global economic issue.  Markets are now slightly oversold relative to mood in the short term.  Will that mean a bounce tomorrow? 

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Overview: Collective mood reflects global trends of aggression and violence, but almost as a desperate attempt to ward off perceptions of weakness. There's an elevated global risk for economic issues to surface. Mood signals for the day indicate a moderate market sell-off is likely.

 

Today's Signals: -8.7 from Google Hot Trends, -4.3 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.

 

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Outlook 20 December '13

after market update: actual S&P +5.9 (+0.3%). 

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Overview: The social mood pattern for today reflects aggression and willingness to take action.  Themes in the news reflect uncertainty.  Market signals are up, however, markets are highly overbought relative to social mood, so anything can happen. Markets are near a "ceiling" area.

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately up (0% to +0.3%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are up.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook:  aggression and rising uncertainty.  Themes in the news reflect uncertainty.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects aggression, violence, and an elevated risk for destructive events or disasters world-wide.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. The signal is at a significant resistant point and may have difficulty moving up further-- i.e. markets may be near a "ceiling."

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, may be in its early stages.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +5.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.

 

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Today’s news signal is +0.5 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Wishing Hard for Christmas Cheer: Outlook 16 December '13

after market update: actual S&P +11.22 (+0.6%); Markets were up today, resolving the large divergence between mood signal and market.  The wish for Holiday Cheer (optimism) in today's social mood appears to have been satisfied, and was stronger than today's calculated mood signal.

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Overview: The social mood pattern for today reflects a desire for leadership, direction, and optimism.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  Markets could be sharply down today, but may try to rally in line with the collective desire for optimism.  There is still a U.S. disaster/tragic event watch for few more days (see More Info on Next U.S. Tragedy).

Today's Market Outlook is down ( -0.5% to -0.7%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are down.  A climax may be near.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook:  a desire for leadership, direction, and optimism.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects an elevated global desire for leadership, direction, and optimism; and an elevated risk of geopolitical escalation.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. 

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, may be in its early stages.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -11.8 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.

 

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Today’s news signal is -8.5 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

When Global Tempers Flare: Outlook 9 December '13

after market update: actual S&P +3.3 (+0.2%); Riots in the Ukraine.  S. Korea extends its airspace in defiance of China.  This angry collective mood is an example of a world that is "over-heated."  Is this all just background noise, or is the global economy about to get woken up with a splash of cold water?

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Overview: Social mood shows a strong directed push against the established order.  Themes in the news reflect aggression, and possible military escalation.  Markets may start out up, but an abrupt change is possible later in the day.

Today's Market Outlook is slightly down to moderately up (-0.1% to +0.6%).  The social mood signal is slightly down, and the signal from themes in the news is moderately up.  If markets start off up, watch for a possible abrupt shift late in the day. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: shows a strong directed push against the established order.  Themes in the news reflect aggression, and possible military escalation.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a high global risk of violence, protests, and a high risk of geopolitical escalation.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. 

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, appears very close to beginning.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -2.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.

 

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Today’s news signal is +10.5 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Increasing Destructiveness: Outlook 22 November '13

after market update: actual S&P +8.9 (+0.5%); In spite of the degradation in social mood, and the increase in destructive sentiment, today's market continued to climb.  Will the growing differential be resolved with a big boost of collective optimism, or a sharp drop in the stock market?

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting a move toward revolutionary and anti-establishment outlook and behavior.  This would favor an increase in protests, civil unrest, and possibly terrorist activity in the next week or so.  Themes in the news are reflecting an increasingly somber tone, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are likely to be down today, possibly sharply down.

Today's Market Outlook is slightly down to sharply down (-0.2% to -1.6%);  both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are negative.  The social mood signal is at support.  Any further deterioration could spell social upheaval and serious economic fallout.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: reflecting a move toward revolutionary and anti-establishment outlook and behavior.  This would favor an increase in protests, civil unrest, and possibly terrorist activity in the next week or so.  Themes in the news are reflecting an increasingly somber tone, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of rising uncertainty and economic concerns.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken first support (1780) which puts mood (and market) in a near term downturn.  Longer term trend is expected to be generally up as long as the mood signal does not go below current levels (1760 primary support).  Social mood signal momentum is indicating that a trend change is approaching.

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is  -13.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -2.8 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Trying to Believe in Economic Recovery: Outlook 21 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -14.5 (-0.81%); Sometimes, belief is all it takes.  Markets were way up today, in spite of the negative mood signals.  Because markets are now overbought relative to social mood, there's a good chance of a sharp drop tomorrow.  

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Overview: People want to believe in the economic recovery.  Traders may push hard today, insisting that up is the way the market should be going.  Will their wishes be enough to make it so?  Social mood is reflecting aggression, agitation, and increased concerns with economic stability.  Themes in the news are reflecting an increasingly somber tone, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are likely to be near unchanged to sharply down today.  A climax move may be near.

Today's Market Outlook is near unchanged to sharply down (0% to -0.7%);  both the social mood signal the signal from themes in the news are negative.  The social mood signal is in a heavy support area, so markets may have difficulty dropping further, resulting in choppiness.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting aggression, agitation, and increased concerns with economic stability.  Themes in the news are reflecting an increasingly somber tone, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of uncertainty, and rising economic concerns.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken first support (1780) which puts mood (and market) in a near term downturn.  Longer term trend is expected to be generally up as long as the mood signal does not go below current levels (1760 primary support).  Social mood momentum is indicating that a trend change is approaching.  A climax move or pause in the downtrend may be near, as the social mood signal is in a heavy support area.

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is  -0.7 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -0.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Steadily Rising Instability: 20 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -7.5 (-0.4%); Markets briefly bounced as was mentioned in yesterday's after market update.  Following that, they turned down and stayed down.  

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting increased aggression, agitation, and instability.  Themes in the news are reflecting deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are likely to be down today.

Today's Market Outlook is near unchanged to moderately down (0% to -0.3%);  both the social mood signal the signal from themes in the news are negative.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting increased aggression and agitation.  Themes in the news are reflecting government or government intervention, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of uncertainty, rising aggression and agitation.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken first support (1780) which puts mood (and market) in a near term downturn.  Longer term trend is expected to be generally up as long as the mood signal does not go below current levels (1760 primary support).

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is  -5.3  S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -0.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

If We Can Just Stay Positive...: Outlook 14 Nov. '13

after market update: actual S&P +8.6 (+0.48%); Markets continue to follow the mood signal, yet the mood themes of avoidance and denial make the sustainability of this rally doubtful.  Tomorrow may hold the key as both the mood and new signals are at key resistance.  Should they go any higher, the rally will have news collective mood support, and may continue for some time.

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting a manic avoidance of a depressing reality.  The themes in the news reflect "bad news" that is seen with rose colored glasses.  Based on this and current mood signals, markets should again try really hard to continue up.  Social mood signals have made a new high, but are in the area of a possible double top.  By tomorrow at the latest (i.e. Friday), we should know if we are about to enter a whole new era of prosperity and positive mood, or are about to smack right into a wall.

Today's Market Outlook is up (+0.1% to +0.9%);  both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are positive.  However, news theme signal momentum indicates a trend change is near.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting a manic avoidance of a depressing reality.  The themes in the news reflect "bad news" that is seen with rose colored glasses.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a rising global background of uncertainty, and a good chance of an unexpected turn of events.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has made a new high today, passing 1800.  Is this a double top or is it signaling a whole new era of prosperity and positive mood that is about to unfold?  By tomorrow we should have a good idea.  

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +14.5 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is +2.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.

Avoiding the Truth: Outlook 13 Nov '13

after market update: actual S&P +14.2 (+0.8%); The markets fell into the manic mood just as they should have.  The day of reckoning is as soon as tomorrow.  What will it be that pull us out of our collective denial? 

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting a manic avoidance of a depressing reality.  The themes in the news reflect "bad news" that is seen with rose colored glasses.  Based on this and current mood signals, markets will try really hard to be up today.  Whatever is being collectively avoided, may become apparent in the very near future, but it is likely not going to be today.

Today's Market Outlook is up (+0.3% to +0.6%);  both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are moderately positive. Mood signal momentum indicates a trend change is near.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting a manic avoidance of a depressing reality.  The themes in the news reflect "bad news" that is seen with rose colored glasses.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a rising global background of economic uncertainty.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is still quite near the high of September 14, but may be turning down at this resistance area.  Markets may also be hitting a ceiling here.  The markets had broken below the key 1760-1780 area and are testing this area once again.  The mood signal still needs to confirm a downward trend change with a break of this area.  However, the mood signal is now testing the upper end (resistance) to either fall back from this ceiling or push for a possible upside breakout.  The next day or two are key to overall direction.

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +6.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is +9.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.

Nearing the Top-- It's all downhill from here: Outlook 12 Nov. '13

after market update: actual S&P -4.2 (-0.24%) ; The market struggled for direction today.  The next day or two should complete the current trend/paradigm shift. 

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting tired optimism, and a new paradigm on the horizon.  The themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster as well as government and government intervention.  Based on current mood signals, markets could struggle to try to stay positive today.  The next day or two are key to overall market direction.

Today's Market Outlook is unchanged to up (0% to +0.2%);  both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are positive, but barely so. Mood signal momentum indicates a trend change is near.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting tired optimism, and a new paradigm on the horizon.  The themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster as well as government and government intervention.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a rising global background of fatigue and anxiety.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is still quite near the high of September 14, but may be turning down at this resistance area.  Markets may also be hitting a ceiling here.  The markets had broken below the key 1760-1780 area and are testing it once again.  The mood signal still needs to confirm this downward trend change with a break of this area.  However, the mood signal is now testing the upper end (resistance) to either fall back from this ceiling or push for a possible upside breakout.  The next day or two are key to overall direction.

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +1.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is +2.7 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.

Getting Shaky: Outlook 7 Nov. '13

after market update: actual S&P -23.3 (-1.3%); The ECB surprisingly cut rates and the U.S. GDP was better than expected.  Together, these strongly contributed to a U.S. Dollar rally, and selling off of commodities.  The stock market briefly took the news as a positive, but then a strong sell-off ensued fitting the social mood forecast description almost to a tee (see Overview below).  Markets may bounce or pause briefly before continuing down, as it appears to be oversold relative to the social mood signal (see chart below).

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Overview: Social mood appears to be taking a dip today.  It reflects an increased inhibition and lowered willingness to take risks.  The themes in the news reflect an increase in irrational decision-making or emotional responses.  Markets should turn lower today. 

Today's Market Outlook is turning down (-0.2% to -0.8%);  While the news signal is mildly down at the time of this posting, the social mood signal is sharply down. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with increased inhibition and lowered willingness to take risks.  The mood themes found in the news are associated with an increase in irrational decision-making or emotional responses.  The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, protests, geopolitical escalation, and terrorist activity.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is near the high of September 14, but may be turning down at this resistance area.  Markets may also be hitting a ceiling here.  A decisive break below 1760 would confirm a negative trend change. 

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -15.4 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -3.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.