Major Global Turning Point Dead Ahead: Outlook 29 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -1.4 (-0.08%); Markets were little changed, but the VIX was up over 5%.  This signals nervousness going into the weekend.  We'll know by Monday if their fears pan out or not.  Either way, something very serious is brewing that is likely to change our collective reality in a big way.

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting the combination of celebration with family and manic Gray Thursday shopping.  The risk of protests and civil unrest is high.  While this can be seen strongly showing up in places like Thailand, the full expression of this mood component may stay in check for another day or two in the U.S.  Themes in the news are reflecting either a vulnerability to attack and/or economic downturn.  Markets are likely to range from nearly unchanged to moderately up today.  Watch for a news event that may drastically change our collective realities in the next few days.

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately up (0% to +0.8%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are positive.  However, the signals over the last few days show a sharp downturn may be imminent.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting confusion, greed, and group cohesion (i.e. Thanksgiving with family). The risk of protests and civil unrest is high, along with the possibility of terrorist activity.  Themes in the news are reflecting either a vulnerability to attack and/or economic downturn.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global ending of a chapter or paradigm.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below primary support (1760) which signals a serious downturn in social mood that is also likely to be followed by the markets.  

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +1.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is +14.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Civil Unrest Risk Rising: Outlook 26 November '13

after market update: actual S&P +0.27 (+0.01%);  Markets spent most of the sessions steadily struggling to continue upward.  With only a few minutes left in the session, markets dropped sharply, losing all gains for the day.  Tomorrow could be an interesting day, as all of this pent up energy gets released.
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Overview: Social mood is reflecting uncertainty, aggression, and willingness to take action.  The risk of protests and civil unrest is increasing.  Themes in the news are reflecting a perception of deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are likely to range from nearly unchanged to sharply down.  Watch for a possible negative news headline to shake things up.

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to sharply down (0% to -2.3%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are slightly down.  However, the signals over the last few days show a sharp downturn may be imminent.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting uncertainty, aggression, and willingness to take action. The risk of protests and civil unrest is increasing, along with the possibility of terrorist activity.  Themes in the news are reflecting a perception of deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of aggression, willingness to take action for a purpose, and a possible increase in violence.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below primary support (1760) which signals a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets.  

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -2.7 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -0.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Aggressive Destruction: Outlook 25 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -2.3 (-0.1%); Markets moved sideways, slightly above the zero line, broke below, and ended only slightly down.  This shows the strong pull in both directions in effect right now.

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting aggression, and willingness to take action.  Themes in the news are reflecting a perception of deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are about as likely to be up as down today, with strong forces pushing in both directions.  Watch for a possible negative news headline to shake things up.

Today's Market Outlook is sharply up to sharply down (+1.2% to -1.0%).  There is extreme divergence between social mood and the news signals.  Social mood is strongly signaling a down, but has just completed a polarity flip, making it ambiguous.  The signal from themes in the news is showing a sharp deterioration.  Markets may make strong moves in both directions, or have trouble moving at all.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting aggression, and willingness to take action.  Themes in the news are reflecting a perception of deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of aggression, willingness to take action for a purpose, and possible increase in violence.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below primary support (1760) which signals a serious downturn in social mood which is likely to be followed by the markets.  

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -22.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting -19.0 for the entire weekend, Saturday through Monday).  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -9.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting (-18.7 S&P points for the entire weekend, Saturday through Monday).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Trying to Believe in Economic Recovery: Outlook 21 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -14.5 (-0.81%); Sometimes, belief is all it takes.  Markets were way up today, in spite of the negative mood signals.  Because markets are now overbought relative to social mood, there's a good chance of a sharp drop tomorrow.  

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Overview: People want to believe in the economic recovery.  Traders may push hard today, insisting that up is the way the market should be going.  Will their wishes be enough to make it so?  Social mood is reflecting aggression, agitation, and increased concerns with economic stability.  Themes in the news are reflecting an increasingly somber tone, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are likely to be near unchanged to sharply down today.  A climax move may be near.

Today's Market Outlook is near unchanged to sharply down (0% to -0.7%);  both the social mood signal the signal from themes in the news are negative.  The social mood signal is in a heavy support area, so markets may have difficulty dropping further, resulting in choppiness.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting aggression, agitation, and increased concerns with economic stability.  Themes in the news are reflecting an increasingly somber tone, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of uncertainty, and rising economic concerns.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken first support (1780) which puts mood (and market) in a near term downturn.  Longer term trend is expected to be generally up as long as the mood signal does not go below current levels (1760 primary support).  Social mood momentum is indicating that a trend change is approaching.  A climax move or pause in the downtrend may be near, as the social mood signal is in a heavy support area.

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is  -0.7 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -0.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Steadily Rising Instability: 20 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -7.5 (-0.4%); Markets briefly bounced as was mentioned in yesterday's after market update.  Following that, they turned down and stayed down.  

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting increased aggression, agitation, and instability.  Themes in the news are reflecting deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are likely to be down today.

Today's Market Outlook is near unchanged to moderately down (0% to -0.3%);  both the social mood signal the signal from themes in the news are negative.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting increased aggression and agitation.  Themes in the news are reflecting government or government intervention, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of uncertainty, rising aggression and agitation.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken first support (1780) which puts mood (and market) in a near term downturn.  Longer term trend is expected to be generally up as long as the mood signal does not go below current levels (1760 primary support).

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is  -5.3  S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -0.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

If We Can Just Stay Positive...: Outlook 14 Nov. '13

after market update: actual S&P +8.6 (+0.48%); Markets continue to follow the mood signal, yet the mood themes of avoidance and denial make the sustainability of this rally doubtful.  Tomorrow may hold the key as both the mood and new signals are at key resistance.  Should they go any higher, the rally will have news collective mood support, and may continue for some time.

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting a manic avoidance of a depressing reality.  The themes in the news reflect "bad news" that is seen with rose colored glasses.  Based on this and current mood signals, markets should again try really hard to continue up.  Social mood signals have made a new high, but are in the area of a possible double top.  By tomorrow at the latest (i.e. Friday), we should know if we are about to enter a whole new era of prosperity and positive mood, or are about to smack right into a wall.

Today's Market Outlook is up (+0.1% to +0.9%);  both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are positive.  However, news theme signal momentum indicates a trend change is near.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting a manic avoidance of a depressing reality.  The themes in the news reflect "bad news" that is seen with rose colored glasses.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a rising global background of uncertainty, and a good chance of an unexpected turn of events.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has made a new high today, passing 1800.  Is this a double top or is it signaling a whole new era of prosperity and positive mood that is about to unfold?  By tomorrow we should have a good idea.  

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +14.5 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is +2.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.

Avoiding the Truth: Outlook 13 Nov '13

after market update: actual S&P +14.2 (+0.8%); The markets fell into the manic mood just as they should have.  The day of reckoning is as soon as tomorrow.  What will it be that pull us out of our collective denial? 

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting a manic avoidance of a depressing reality.  The themes in the news reflect "bad news" that is seen with rose colored glasses.  Based on this and current mood signals, markets will try really hard to be up today.  Whatever is being collectively avoided, may become apparent in the very near future, but it is likely not going to be today.

Today's Market Outlook is up (+0.3% to +0.6%);  both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are moderately positive. Mood signal momentum indicates a trend change is near.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting a manic avoidance of a depressing reality.  The themes in the news reflect "bad news" that is seen with rose colored glasses.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a rising global background of economic uncertainty.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is still quite near the high of September 14, but may be turning down at this resistance area.  Markets may also be hitting a ceiling here.  The markets had broken below the key 1760-1780 area and are testing this area once again.  The mood signal still needs to confirm a downward trend change with a break of this area.  However, the mood signal is now testing the upper end (resistance) to either fall back from this ceiling or push for a possible upside breakout.  The next day or two are key to overall direction.

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +6.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is +9.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.

Getting Shaky: Outlook 7 Nov. '13

after market update: actual S&P -23.3 (-1.3%); The ECB surprisingly cut rates and the U.S. GDP was better than expected.  Together, these strongly contributed to a U.S. Dollar rally, and selling off of commodities.  The stock market briefly took the news as a positive, but then a strong sell-off ensued fitting the social mood forecast description almost to a tee (see Overview below).  Markets may bounce or pause briefly before continuing down, as it appears to be oversold relative to the social mood signal (see chart below).

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Overview: Social mood appears to be taking a dip today.  It reflects an increased inhibition and lowered willingness to take risks.  The themes in the news reflect an increase in irrational decision-making or emotional responses.  Markets should turn lower today. 

Today's Market Outlook is turning down (-0.2% to -0.8%);  While the news signal is mildly down at the time of this posting, the social mood signal is sharply down. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with increased inhibition and lowered willingness to take risks.  The mood themes found in the news are associated with an increase in irrational decision-making or emotional responses.  The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, protests, geopolitical escalation, and terrorist activity.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is near the high of September 14, but may be turning down at this resistance area.  Markets may also be hitting a ceiling here.  A decisive break below 1760 would confirm a negative trend change. 

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -15.4 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -3.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.

November 2013 - Growing Economic Uncertainty and Civil Unrest

One of the many benefits of looking at collective mood is that one can get a heads up on prosperous times, and times of more uncertainty and social angst.  The information is perhaps more general than one would desire, but it is still helpful in planning for near future storms or celebrations.

Coming into the month of November is a hopeful United States, and to some extent the world.  Perhaps the worst is behind us?  Perhaps we conquered the problems of the Great Recession after all?  Maybe things are going to really start to get better?

Yet, that is not the picture for November.  Globally, the primary concern is associated with economic issues.  While, as usual, the people of the United States will try to assume that this doesn't apply to them, the U.S. is not exempt from the November turmoil.

The top issues associated with the mood configurations for November: economic uncertainty, bonds and interest rates, new and unexpected problems, denial, fighting, arguing, and protests.  Overall, this is a month of transition.  In the long run, what will matter is how we resolve this transition in December and January.  Do we enter a new global era of prosperity and stability or does cooperation become so elusive that it all starts to unravel?

Likely stock market direction for the month: mixed to down.

Disaster or Terrorist Activity?- Something Big is Near: Outlook 30 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P -8.7 (-0.5%); Markets did turn down today, accelerating after the FOMC meeting as bonds sold off and interest rates climbed.  The "disaster or terrorist activity" may be later this week.

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Overview: Social mood appears to be deteriorating, and reflects both aggressiveness and instability.  The themes in the news are associated with the perception of destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  Mood is turning sharply down, markets are likely to follow.  Whether it happens today, or in a few days, something abrupt and tragic is near.

Today's Market Outlook is turning down to sharply down (-0.1% to -1.1%);  While the news signal is near unchanged at the time of this posting, the social mood signal is sharply down.

 

Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with violence and instability.  The mood themes found in the news are associated with destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, protests, and terrorist activity.  An abrupt change and something of a tragic nature is indicated as a highly likely occurrence.

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is turning down from the resistance area (see this post for more info).  Markets should either pause or turn down sharply from here.

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp drop of more than 10%, just around the corner, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -18.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -0.9 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.