Future Looking Less Certain: 2 December '13

after market update: actual S&P -4.9 (-0.27%); Markets tried to rally, but with social mood continuing to deteriorate, uncertainty was looming too loudly for an up day.

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting rising passions, and willingness to take action, including violence.  Themes in the news are general "bad news" and a vulnerability to attack and/or economic downturn.  There is a watch for a very serious news event in the next few days.  While the N.Y. train derailment could conceivably qualify, it is more likely something on a larger scale, still just around the corner.  Markets are likely to range from nearly unchanged to moderately down today. 

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately down (0% to -0.6%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are negative.   The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: rising passions, and willingness to take action, including violence. Themes in the news are general "bad news" and a vulnerability to attack and/or economic downturn.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a high global risk of violence, protests, and a high risk of terrorist activity.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below primary support (1760) which signals a serious downturn in social mood that is also likely to be followed by the markets.  

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -10.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -0.1 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Major Global Turning Point Dead Ahead: Outlook 29 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -1.4 (-0.08%); Markets were little changed, but the VIX was up over 5%.  This signals nervousness going into the weekend.  We'll know by Monday if their fears pan out or not.  Either way, something very serious is brewing that is likely to change our collective reality in a big way.

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting the combination of celebration with family and manic Gray Thursday shopping.  The risk of protests and civil unrest is high.  While this can be seen strongly showing up in places like Thailand, the full expression of this mood component may stay in check for another day or two in the U.S.  Themes in the news are reflecting either a vulnerability to attack and/or economic downturn.  Markets are likely to range from nearly unchanged to moderately up today.  Watch for a news event that may drastically change our collective realities in the next few days.

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately up (0% to +0.8%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are positive.  However, the signals over the last few days show a sharp downturn may be imminent.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting confusion, greed, and group cohesion (i.e. Thanksgiving with family). The risk of protests and civil unrest is high, along with the possibility of terrorist activity.  Themes in the news are reflecting either a vulnerability to attack and/or economic downturn.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global ending of a chapter or paradigm.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below primary support (1760) which signals a serious downturn in social mood that is also likely to be followed by the markets.  

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +1.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is +14.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Civil Unrest Risk Rising: Outlook 26 November '13

after market update: actual S&P +0.27 (+0.01%);  Markets spent most of the sessions steadily struggling to continue upward.  With only a few minutes left in the session, markets dropped sharply, losing all gains for the day.  Tomorrow could be an interesting day, as all of this pent up energy gets released.
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Overview: Social mood is reflecting uncertainty, aggression, and willingness to take action.  The risk of protests and civil unrest is increasing.  Themes in the news are reflecting a perception of deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are likely to range from nearly unchanged to sharply down.  Watch for a possible negative news headline to shake things up.

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to sharply down (0% to -2.3%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are slightly down.  However, the signals over the last few days show a sharp downturn may be imminent.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

(click to enlarge)

 

Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting uncertainty, aggression, and willingness to take action. The risk of protests and civil unrest is increasing, along with the possibility of terrorist activity.  Themes in the news are reflecting a perception of deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of aggression, willingness to take action for a purpose, and a possible increase in violence.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below primary support (1760) which signals a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets.  

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -2.7 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -0.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Aggressive Destruction: Outlook 25 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -2.3 (-0.1%); Markets moved sideways, slightly above the zero line, broke below, and ended only slightly down.  This shows the strong pull in both directions in effect right now.

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting aggression, and willingness to take action.  Themes in the news are reflecting a perception of deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are about as likely to be up as down today, with strong forces pushing in both directions.  Watch for a possible negative news headline to shake things up.

Today's Market Outlook is sharply up to sharply down (+1.2% to -1.0%).  There is extreme divergence between social mood and the news signals.  Social mood is strongly signaling a down, but has just completed a polarity flip, making it ambiguous.  The signal from themes in the news is showing a sharp deterioration.  Markets may make strong moves in both directions, or have trouble moving at all.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting aggression, and willingness to take action.  Themes in the news are reflecting a perception of deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of aggression, willingness to take action for a purpose, and possible increase in violence.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below primary support (1760) which signals a serious downturn in social mood which is likely to be followed by the markets.  

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -22.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting -19.0 for the entire weekend, Saturday through Monday).  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -9.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting (-18.7 S&P points for the entire weekend, Saturday through Monday).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Celebrating Uncertainty... at least for now

Syria is not going to get blasted by the United States, at least for the moment.  Uncertainty often causes stress, but at least this time, both the social mood signal and the mood signal obtained from the news show that this is being experienced by the people of the U.S. and perhaps the world as somewhat of a relief.

The current mood is extremely unstable; however, nothing lasts forever, right?  This is a moment that collectively we relax into the unknown, while at the same time feeling the agitation of the unkowningness of it all.  It isn't comfortable, but at least it isn't a new war... or at least not today.

While U.S. markets are closed on Monday, global markets could have a good rally, at least for most of their sessions.  If the U.S. stock market was open on Monday, collective mood signals suggest markets would likely gain between 0.5% to 1.2%. 

What a funny thing social mood is.  People are afraid of what might happen, then relieved at what won't happen... for now.  Yet, life is always uncertain.  Sometimes, perhaps, we are more aware of it.  Still, what social mood is clearly saying at this very moment, regardless of the hold put on a U.S. strike on Syria until congress can debate it, is that something highly destructive is gearing up to take place.  And it doesn't look like it cares whether or not congress is there to debate it or not.

There is no clear signal at this point that it is tomorrow or even the next day.  However, it isn't likely going to wait until congress is back in session.  But, for now, we should all get back to celebrating because today is not the day that this thing is going to happen, certainly.