More Info on the Next U.S. Tragedy

The latest information suggests the next big U.S. tragedy will be early this week.  One week ago, the latest information showed the next big U.S. tragedy was days away.  On the 10th, it appeared imminent.  Friday's shooting at Arapahoe High School could have been the next disaster, but it wasn't.  It was a tragedy, but did not resolve the pattern that has been developing in collective mood.  There is something else still likely to show up.

Below is the latest graph of social mood relative to U.S. news (an update to what was presented last week).  Storm Electra has been added to the chart. 

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Notice what has happened to the pattern.  This line had appeared to be peaking near December 10th as the ice storms were completing.  This would mean that a major U.S. tragic event was right around the corner.  The Arapahoe shooting happened immediately after this apparent peak, but this line then started to climb again.  The added segment over this past week, with Storm Electra added, shows a peaking had not yet occurred... until now.  So, again, as was said in the original post on this event, if the pre-disaster pattern that can be clearly seen with the Boston Marathon event, and the recent Navy Yard shooting, continues to hold true, then America is only days away from its next big tragedy. 

When Global Tempers Flare: Outlook 9 December '13

after market update: actual S&P +3.3 (+0.2%); Riots in the Ukraine.  S. Korea extends its airspace in defiance of China.  This angry collective mood is an example of a world that is "over-heated."  Is this all just background noise, or is the global economy about to get woken up with a splash of cold water?

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Overview: Social mood shows a strong directed push against the established order.  Themes in the news reflect aggression, and possible military escalation.  Markets may start out up, but an abrupt change is possible later in the day.

Today's Market Outlook is slightly down to moderately up (-0.1% to +0.6%).  The social mood signal is slightly down, and the signal from themes in the news is moderately up.  If markets start off up, watch for a possible abrupt shift late in the day. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: shows a strong directed push against the established order.  Themes in the news reflect aggression, and possible military escalation.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a high global risk of violence, protests, and a high risk of geopolitical escalation.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. 

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, appears very close to beginning.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -2.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.

 

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Today’s news signal is +10.5 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

The Next American Tragedy... A Few Days Away?

America's next big tragedy may be only a few days away.  This has been detected by observing changes in social mood, and in the divergence between themes in the news and how people collectively are feeling.  For more details on how this is detected, see Disasters: Society's Shadow.  For more details on where America is now, and this particular alert, keep reading.

The chart below is one of the ways we watch the changes in social mood relative to the news.  A pattern emerged prior to every major tragic U.S. event since July 2012.  You will see one of the black dots, labeled Karma Point, followed by a red dot, labeled Tragic Event or Disaster.   The exception to this is that immediately following the very impactful Boston Marathon event and out through September of this year, there was a disruption in the pattern.

If the previous pattern has returned, as appears from the Navy Yard shooting in September, then America is days away from its next big tragedy.  We will be able to discover within a few days, if this is true, or if there is some unidentified new pattern (or no pattern) in play.  Another interesting feature that has been noticed in the last few disaster clusters is a possible relationship between stormy weather and the immediately following tragic events. 

In April 2013, immediately preceding the Boston Marathon event, was a disruptive and damaging storm, and this line on the graph peaked.

In September 2013, immediately preceding the Navy Yard Shooting, there was a major flooding event in Western Colorado.

Now, in December 2013, after the prerequisite black dot on the graph (Karma Point), there are disruptive and damaging ice storms.  The big question is, does this line now peak, with a major U.S. tragedy immediately afterwards?  We will know in a few days.


 

Future Looking Less Certain: 2 December '13

after market update: actual S&P -4.9 (-0.27%); Markets tried to rally, but with social mood continuing to deteriorate, uncertainty was looming too loudly for an up day.

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Overview: Social mood is reflecting rising passions, and willingness to take action, including violence.  Themes in the news are general "bad news" and a vulnerability to attack and/or economic downturn.  There is a watch for a very serious news event in the next few days.  While the N.Y. train derailment could conceivably qualify, it is more likely something on a larger scale, still just around the corner.  Markets are likely to range from nearly unchanged to moderately down today. 

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately down (0% to -0.6%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are negative.   The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook: rising passions, and willingness to take action, including violence. Themes in the news are general "bad news" and a vulnerability to attack and/or economic downturn.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a high global risk of violence, protests, and a high risk of terrorist activity.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below primary support (1760) which signals a serious downturn in social mood that is also likely to be followed by the markets.  

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -10.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

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Today’s news signal is -0.1 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.