Sunday, December 8, 2013

The Next American Tragedy... A Few Days Away?

America's next big tragedy may be only a few days away.  This has been detected by observing changes in social mood, and in the divergence between themes in the news and how people collectively are feeling.  For more details on how this is detected, see Disasters: Society's Shadow.  For more details on where America is now, and this particular alert, keep reading.

The chart below is one of the ways we watch the changes in social mood relative to the news.  A pattern emerged prior to every major tragic U.S. event since July 2012.  You will see one of the black dots, labeled Karma Point, followed by a red dot, labeled Tragic Event or Disaster.   The exception to this is that immediately following the very impactful Boston Marathon event and out through September of this year, there was a disruption in the pattern.



If the previous pattern has returned, as appears from the Navy Yard shooting in September, then America is days away from its next big tragedy.  We will be able to discover within a few days, if this is true, or if there is some unidentified new pattern (or no pattern) in play.  Another interesting feature that has been noticed in the last few disaster clusters is a possible relationship between stormy weather and the immediately following tragic events. 

In April 2013, immediately preceding the Boston Marathon event, was a disruptive and damaging storm, and this line on the graph peaked.
In September 2013, immediately preceding the Navy Yard Shooting, there was a major flooding event in Western Colorado.






Now, in December 2013, after the prerequisite black dot on the graph (Karma Point), there are disruptive and damaging ice storms.  The big question is, does this line now peak, with a major U.S. tragedy immediately afterwards?  We will know in a few days.


 

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