MM Presidential Indicator Wins!

This may seem like old news, but it's a win today for the MM Indicator...

Because the MM Electability Indicator is 5 days lagging the social mood data, we developed the Campaign Momentum Indicator to try to get around this (i.e. the momentum of the Electability Indicator).  It was found that using an adaptation of Elliott Wave analysis, it was possible to make an educated guess about what was coming next in momentum, as the changes in the CMI seemed to follow clear Elliott Wave patterns.  This worked well for the debates.  A few weeks prior to the election it looked like a 3rd wave was about to take place.  However, we gave this caveat:  "If this is a correct assessment, this would mean that there should not be a last minute bounce for Trump nor a last minute fall for Clinton.  These would be impulsive structures, and the campaigns would be both at juggernaut momentum in their respective directions coming into the close."

Shortly after this, the Comey FBI announcement came out which dramatically altered the Clinton campaign momentum.  This gave us pause, but we waited until the day of the election to give a final call.  At that point, a clear 3rd wave could not be seen, but there was still a good chance that one was "trying to."  We gave Clinton a 60-75% chance of winning at that point, and had to admit that it was much less a sure thing, as the wave pattern no longer looked like a clear impulsive Clinton wave.  Also, competing with the CMI, was that the Electability Indicator was clearly showing Trump as "trying" to have an impulsive 3rd wave up (1-2 i-ii in place).

Today's social mood data, due to the lag in the Electability Indicator, brings us to Nov. 8th.  The final results give Clinton a 33.0% and Trump a 32.7% in a national election (see below).  While this does not take the electoral college into account, this is a great reflection of the close race and Clinton narrowly winning the popular vote.  It also shows how timing is everything.  A few weeks prior, Trump would have won in a landslide.  Just a few days later, we might now have a president Clinton.

Calling the Presidential Election

The social mood signals we use give us information about the markets several days ahead.  We've developed a polling indicator, and while tracking well, gives info that is about a week old.  We found a way around this impediment buy using the momentum of projected polling changes.  By combining the Campaign Momentum Indicator and an adaptation of Elliott Wave analysis we were able to obtain useful information before the 1st and 2nd presidential debates (we abstained from the 3rd).  Today is election day, and while leaning in a direction, we have to admit that the alternative has not been ruled out.

The base case outlook is that Trump is in a 3rd wave down and Clinton in a 3rd wave up, and that each is about to experience a 3rd of a 3rd in their particular direction.  For those not familiar with Elliott Waves, this means a really big blast in that direction-- the grand finale.  However, the way this has played out has left it somewhat ambiguous, and leaves a less probable, but not unlikely possibility that Trump has completed a c wave and beginning a new uptrend, and Clinton would be in a similar situation (not shown on chart).  It looks cleaner (to me) with the 1-2 i-ii count, ready to blast into a 3rd of 3rd.  However, I won't know for another week how this chart actually played out for election day.

Final call: Clinton winning is most probable, but not clear cut certain.