Major Global Turning Point Dead Ahead: Outlook 29 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -1.4 (-0.08%); Markets were little changed, but the VIX was up over 5%.  This signals nervousness going into the weekend.  We'll know by Monday if their fears pan out or not.  Either way, something very serious is brewing that is likely to change our collective reality in a big way.

(click t enlarge)

- - -

Overview: Social mood is reflecting the combination of celebration with family and manic Gray Thursday shopping.  The risk of protests and civil unrest is high.  While this can be seen strongly showing up in places like Thailand, the full expression of this mood component may stay in check for another day or two in the U.S.  Themes in the news are reflecting either a vulnerability to attack and/or economic downturn.  Markets are likely to range from nearly unchanged to moderately up today.  Watch for a news event that may drastically change our collective realities in the next few days.

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately up (0% to +0.8%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are positive.  However, the signals over the last few days show a sharp downturn may be imminent.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

(click to enlarge)

 

Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting confusion, greed, and group cohesion (i.e. Thanksgiving with family). The risk of protests and civil unrest is high, along with the possibility of terrorist activity.  Themes in the news are reflecting either a vulnerability to attack and/or economic downturn.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global ending of a chapter or paradigm.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below primary support (1760) which signals a serious downturn in social mood that is also likely to be followed by the markets.  

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +1.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

  (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is +14.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Aggressive Frustration: Outlook 27 November '13

after market update: actual S&P +4.5 (+0.25%);  The news is full of disappointments and aggressive tones, as the Iran deal looks shaky, more countries voice their disapproval of China's recent move to create an Air Identification Zone, and then there are more setbacks with Obamacare. Markets were quite confused today, as mood vacillates between todays positive,.and the weeks' overall state of overbought vs. social mood.  Yet, markets ended in the range of today's social mood signals.  The building tension is yet to be resolved.
.

(click t enlarge)

- - -

Overview: Pressure has been building over the last few days as collective mood has soured, but a collective outlet has not materialized to express this.  Will today be the big release?  Social mood is reflecting confusion, frustration, and aggression.  The risk of violence, protests and civil unrest is high over the next few days.  Themes in the news are reflecting a perception of deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Collective mood signals for the day indicate markets are likely to be up.  Yet, overall market movement during the past week shows a highly overbought market relative to social mood, meaning that anything is possible today.

 

Today's Market Outlook is slightly up to sharply down (signals: +0.2% to +0.5%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are up for today.  However, the signals over the last few days create an extremely overbought condition relative to what social mood can support.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.  It includes the likely range for today from the collective mood signals, as well as the possible sharp downturn from overall weekly movement.

(click to enlarge)

 

Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting confusion, frustration, and aggression. The risk of protests and civil unrest is increasing, along with the possibility of terrorist activity.  Themes in the news are reflecting a perception of deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of uncertainty and deterioration.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below primary support (1760) which signals a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be soon followed by the markets.  

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +4.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

  (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is +8.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Civil Unrest Risk Rising: Outlook 26 November '13

after market update: actual S&P +0.27 (+0.01%);  Markets spent most of the sessions steadily struggling to continue upward.  With only a few minutes left in the session, markets dropped sharply, losing all gains for the day.  Tomorrow could be an interesting day, as all of this pent up energy gets released.
.

(click to enlarge)

- - -

Overview: Social mood is reflecting uncertainty, aggression, and willingness to take action.  The risk of protests and civil unrest is increasing.  Themes in the news are reflecting a perception of deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are likely to range from nearly unchanged to sharply down.  Watch for a possible negative news headline to shake things up.

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to sharply down (0% to -2.3%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are slightly down.  However, the signals over the last few days show a sharp downturn may be imminent.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

(click to enlarge)

 

Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting uncertainty, aggression, and willingness to take action. The risk of protests and civil unrest is increasing, along with the possibility of terrorist activity.  Themes in the news are reflecting a perception of deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of aggression, willingness to take action for a purpose, and a possible increase in violence.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below primary support (1760) which signals a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets.  

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -2.7 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

  (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is -0.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Aggressive Destruction: Outlook 25 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -2.3 (-0.1%); Markets moved sideways, slightly above the zero line, broke below, and ended only slightly down.  This shows the strong pull in both directions in effect right now.

(click to enlarge)

- - -

Overview: Social mood is reflecting aggression, and willingness to take action.  Themes in the news are reflecting a perception of deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are about as likely to be up as down today, with strong forces pushing in both directions.  Watch for a possible negative news headline to shake things up.

Today's Market Outlook is sharply up to sharply down (+1.2% to -1.0%).  There is extreme divergence between social mood and the news signals.  Social mood is strongly signaling a down, but has just completed a polarity flip, making it ambiguous.  The signal from themes in the news is showing a sharp deterioration.  Markets may make strong moves in both directions, or have trouble moving at all.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

  (click to enlarge)

 

Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting aggression, and willingness to take action.  Themes in the news are reflecting a perception of deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of aggression, willingness to take action for a purpose, and possible increase in violence.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below primary support (1760) which signals a serious downturn in social mood which is likely to be followed by the markets.  

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -22.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting -19.0 for the entire weekend, Saturday through Monday).  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is -9.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting (-18.7 S&P points for the entire weekend, Saturday through Monday).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Increasing Destructiveness: Outlook 22 November '13

after market update: actual S&P +8.9 (+0.5%); In spite of the degradation in social mood, and the increase in destructive sentiment, today's market continued to climb.  Will the growing differential be resolved with a big boost of collective optimism, or a sharp drop in the stock market?

(click to enlarge)

- - -

Overview: Social mood is reflecting a move toward revolutionary and anti-establishment outlook and behavior.  This would favor an increase in protests, civil unrest, and possibly terrorist activity in the next week or so.  Themes in the news are reflecting an increasingly somber tone, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are likely to be down today, possibly sharply down.

Today's Market Outlook is slightly down to sharply down (-0.2% to -1.6%);  both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are negative.  The social mood signal is at support.  Any further deterioration could spell social upheaval and serious economic fallout.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

Near term mood outlook: reflecting a move toward revolutionary and anti-establishment outlook and behavior.  This would favor an increase in protests, civil unrest, and possibly terrorist activity in the next week or so.  Themes in the news are reflecting an increasingly somber tone, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of rising uncertainty and economic concerns.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken first support (1780) which puts mood (and market) in a near term downturn.  Longer term trend is expected to be generally up as long as the mood signal does not go below current levels (1760 primary support).  Social mood signal momentum is indicating that a trend change is approaching.

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is  -13.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is -2.8 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Trying to Believe in Economic Recovery: Outlook 21 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -14.5 (-0.81%); Sometimes, belief is all it takes.  Markets were way up today, in spite of the negative mood signals.  Because markets are now overbought relative to social mood, there's a good chance of a sharp drop tomorrow.  

(click to enlarge)

- - -

Overview: People want to believe in the economic recovery.  Traders may push hard today, insisting that up is the way the market should be going.  Will their wishes be enough to make it so?  Social mood is reflecting aggression, agitation, and increased concerns with economic stability.  Themes in the news are reflecting an increasingly somber tone, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are likely to be near unchanged to sharply down today.  A climax move may be near.

Today's Market Outlook is near unchanged to sharply down (0% to -0.7%);  both the social mood signal the signal from themes in the news are negative.  The social mood signal is in a heavy support area, so markets may have difficulty dropping further, resulting in choppiness.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting aggression, agitation, and increased concerns with economic stability.  Themes in the news are reflecting an increasingly somber tone, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of uncertainty, and rising economic concerns.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken first support (1780) which puts mood (and market) in a near term downturn.  Longer term trend is expected to be generally up as long as the mood signal does not go below current levels (1760 primary support).  Social mood momentum is indicating that a trend change is approaching.  A climax move or pause in the downtrend may be near, as the social mood signal is in a heavy support area.

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is  -0.7 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is -0.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Steadily Rising Instability: 20 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -7.5 (-0.4%); Markets briefly bounced as was mentioned in yesterday's after market update.  Following that, they turned down and stayed down.  

(click to enlarge)

- - -

Overview: Social mood is reflecting increased aggression, agitation, and instability.  Themes in the news are reflecting deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are likely to be down today.

Today's Market Outlook is near unchanged to moderately down (0% to -0.3%);  both the social mood signal the signal from themes in the news are negative.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting increased aggression and agitation.  Themes in the news are reflecting government or government intervention, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of uncertainty, rising aggression and agitation.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken first support (1780) which puts mood (and market) in a near term downturn.  Longer term trend is expected to be generally up as long as the mood signal does not go below current levels (1760 primary support).

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is  -5.3  S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is -0.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Outlook 19 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -3.7 (-0.2%) ; Markets struggled to continue down today, as social mood was giving mixed signals.  With social mood  now at support, markets may briefly bounce tomorrow. There is no guarantee that a new high will be made before a more serious negative mood sets in with sharper losses.

 (click to enlarge)

- - -
Overview: Social mood is reflecting increased aggression and agitation.  Themes in the news are reflecting deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  Markets are likely to be down today.

Today's Market Outlook is near unchanged to moderately down (0% to -0.4%);  both the social mood signal the signal from themes in the news are negative.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting increased aggression and agitation.  Themes in the news are reflecting government or government intervention, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of uncertainty, rising aggression and agitation.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken first support (1780) which puts mood (and market) in a near term downturn.  Longer term trend is expected to be generally up as long as the mood signal does not go below current levels (1760 primary support).

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is  -7.1  S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is -0.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Increasing Agitation: Outlook 18 November '13

after market update: actual S&P -6.7 (-0.37%); Markets started up today, but then abruptly turned down, right in line with the collective mood signal.  The overall trend is still up unless social mood breaks below support. 

 (click to enlarge)

- - -
Overview: Social mood is reflecting increased aggression and agitation.  Themes in the news are reflecting government or government intervention, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster (this might be related to the tornado outbreak on Sunday and overnight).  Markets are likely to be down today.

Today's Market Outlook is slightly to moderately down (-0.2% to -0.5%);  both the social mood signal the signal from themes in the news are negative.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

  (click to enlarge)

 

Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting increased aggression and agitation.  Themes in the news are reflecting government or government intervention, deterioration, destruction, and/or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of uncertainty, rising aggression and agitation.  

 

Near term market outlook: Trend is expected to be generally up as long as the mood signal does not go below current levels.

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is  -3.6  S&P points (-8.5 S&P points for the entire weekend, Saturday through Monday) as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is -4.7 S&P points as of the time of this posting (-3.3 S&P points for the entire weekend, Saturday through Monday).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Boredom or Bedlam? : Outlook 15 November '13

after market update: actual S&P +7.5 (+0.42%); Markets rose today at a slow crawl, causing them to be slightly overbought relative to social mood.  Monday might see a pause in the rally, depending on what happens with collective mood over the weekend.

 (click to enlarge)

- - -
Overview: Social mood is reflecting uncertainty, confusion, and the unexpected.  At the time of this posting, social mood is showing a slight dip.  It is likely that if there are no major news headlines, that markets will be little changed today.  However, with the unexpected built into today's collective mood, we should be ready for anything.

Today's Market Outlook is near unchanged to down (0% to -0.2%);  the social mood signal is slightly negative and the signal from themes in the news is near unchanged.  However, news theme signal momentum indicates a trend change is near.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting an ending of a theme or chapter.  The themes in the news reflect uncertainty and confusion.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a global perception of uncertainty, confusion, and the unexpected.  

 

Near term market outlook: Unless the collective mood signals drop sharply from current levels, it is expected that markets will continue to climb in the near term.

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 15%, likely within the next few months, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -3.2 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

(click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is +0.5 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.

If We Can Just Stay Positive...: Outlook 14 Nov. '13

after market update: actual S&P +8.6 (+0.48%); Markets continue to follow the mood signal, yet the mood themes of avoidance and denial make the sustainability of this rally doubtful.  Tomorrow may hold the key as both the mood and new signals are at key resistance.  Should they go any higher, the rally will have news collective mood support, and may continue for some time.

 (click to enlarge)

- - -
Overview: Social mood is reflecting a manic avoidance of a depressing reality.  The themes in the news reflect "bad news" that is seen with rose colored glasses.  Based on this and current mood signals, markets should again try really hard to continue up.  Social mood signals have made a new high, but are in the area of a possible double top.  By tomorrow at the latest (i.e. Friday), we should know if we are about to enter a whole new era of prosperity and positive mood, or are about to smack right into a wall.

Today's Market Outlook is up (+0.1% to +0.9%);  both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are positive.  However, news theme signal momentum indicates a trend change is near.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)

 

Near term mood outlook: Social mood is reflecting a manic avoidance of a depressing reality.  The themes in the news reflect "bad news" that is seen with rose colored glasses.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects a rising global background of uncertainty, and a good chance of an unexpected turn of events.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has made a new high today, passing 1800.  Is this a double top or is it signaling a whole new era of prosperity and positive mood that is about to unfold?  By tomorrow we should have a good idea.  

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year.  There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon.  Yet, a sharp market drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +14.5 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

 

(click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is +2.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.