after market update: actual S&P +7.5 (+0.43%); Markets had a difficult time finding direction all day. Will tomorrow be a big directional move? We'll see what social mood says in about 10 hours.
Today's Market Outlook is choppy, and up (0.1% to +0.6%); While the news signal is near unchanged at the time of this posting, the social mood signal is moderately up. News theme signal momentum indicates a trend change is near.
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories. Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model. The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. Stock market data source: Google Finance.
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Overview: Social mood is signaling a moderate positive today, and has gone just about as high as it can go without giving a bullish signal of new market highs and unfolding prosperity ahead. However, social mood reflects a very tired try at optimism and "animal spirits." The themes in the news reflect an increase in aggressiveness or willingness to act on impulse. Markets should reflect a struggling attempt to stay positive. News theme signal momentum indicates a trend change is near.
Overview: Social mood is signaling a moderate positive today, and has gone just about as high as it can go without giving a bullish signal of new market highs and unfolding prosperity ahead. However, social mood reflects a very tired try at optimism and "animal spirits." The themes in the news reflect an increase in aggressiveness or willingness to act on impulse. Markets should reflect a struggling attempt to stay positive. News theme signal momentum indicates a trend change is near.
Today's Market Outlook is choppy, and up (0.1% to +0.6%); While the news signal is near unchanged at the time of this posting, the social mood signal is moderately up. News theme signal momentum indicates a trend change is near.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with a desperate, last gasp optimism. The mood themes found in the news are associated with rising aggressiveness or willingness to act on impulse. The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, protests, and terrorist activity.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is near the high of September 14. If the mood signal does not turn down in the next day or two, markets are likely to zoom to new highs and then some. A decisive break below 1760 would confirm a negative trend change. Markets are not likely to go much above 1790 in the near future (the September 14 mood signal high), even in a positive breakout.
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year. There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon. Yet, a sharp drop of more than 10%, likely before year's end, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.
Today’s social mood signal is +11.1 S&P points as of the time of this posting. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
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Today’s news signal is +1,4 S&P points as of the time of this posting. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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