Social Mood Clues to Monday's Debate

For several weeks now, we've been looking at the idea of Presidential Campaign technical analysis using a social mood derived Campaign Momentum Indicator and an adaptation of Elliott Wave analysis.  Our last prediction was that Trump would see a gain in the polls and Clinton a drop (which we have been seeing).  Both campaigns have been following a "corrective" structure of some type, and this most recent "c" wave or 5 wave move in each campaign should signal a completion of that direction.

What this means is that Trump is likely at a peak in gaining poll points and Clinton at a low in losing poll points.  If this is the case, then it would make sense for Clinton to win the upcoming debate on Monday in the eyes of most voters. However, because we haven't yet seen evidence that either of these "c waves" have climaxed (i.e. begin to turn in the other direction), the debate may be Trump's final triumph, and Hillary's last big stumble just before things turn around.  Let's see what happens.

Presidential Pins and Needles

I've been discussing "Presidential Technical Analysis" over the past few weeks, and we've been combining a social mood derived Campaign Momentum Indicator and an adaptation of Elliott Wave Analysis.  I've been doing a weekly update on this on Sundays, but this just can't wait!
As of the last post, we were wondering whether Trump was experiencing a corrective increase in momentum (as informed by social mood data), or whether his new uptrend would be impulsive and give him an almost guaranteed victory.  It looks pretty clear at this point, that this uptrend is corrective, and will not yield a default victory crown.

However, the surprising new development is what is going on with the Clinton campaign trajectory (see chart below).  We expected her to have a tough week or two with a sharp "c wave" drop coming up for her.  Yet, the rebound from that sharp drop is only three waves so far.   A critical moment is just ahead!  Either she will get one more upward move soon, giving her five waves up and a new surge in momentum, or her entire campaign is about to "crash" in what would be a devastating not yet completed c wave down that could last well into October.  It wouldn't be impossible, but it would be nearly so, to recover from such a devastating blow in time for a win in November.
Stay tuned!

MarketMood, Elliott Waves, and the Election

Last week I introduced a Presidential Campaign Momentum chart (link).  One thing that came from the discussion was a recognition of Elliott Wave patterns in this social mood derived chart.  A "b wave top" was spotted for the trajectory of Clinton's campaign and a "c wave low" for Trump.  From this labeling (shown below) we expected the next wave for Clinton to be 5 waves down.  For Trump, an up move was expected next with possibly the entire election hinging on whether the next wave set for him is a 3 wave corrective move up or a 5 wave impulsive one.  A 5 wave move up for Trump would be just the beginning of a new strong surge in the polls.

It is fascinating that we were able to call the direction of the next wave set using this combination of Elliott Waves and the MarketMood social mood data.  You have the exclusive information here that the entire presidential election could very well rest on the next week or two.  That is, not what the candidates do or say in the next week or two, but what the pattern is in the social mood data.
Looking at our momentum chart, Clinton has 3 waves down so far, and Trump 3 waves up.  They are both on a possible wave 4.  The sharp drop for Clinton does appear right for a 5 wave drop.  Today's health news could end up being a part of the 5th wave.  Trump's rally so far has more of a corrective look to it, but we will have to wait a few more days to clearly see if he is working on a 5th wave up, or beginning another 3 wave drop down.

Presidential Technical Analysis

Just for the sake of this discussion, leave the fundamental analysis (and personal opinions about the candidates' character) at the door.  What if these were two stocks you were considering trading, and all you had was this momentum indicator?  What I see is a series of lower highs for Clinton, with current momentum at 0.  I would wait before buying this one.  The Trump stock is clearly more volatile, and the previous high was a higher high.  I would watch this one carefully for the next turn up in momentum.  However, at this point I would have to stand aside on both of them.  What would you do with these "stocks?"