Friday, August 30, 2013

Outlook 30 Aug 2013: Preparing for Violence; Ready for a Shift

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with rising passions.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are terrorist activity, and extreme polarization (e.g. us vs. them, "good guys" vs. "bad guys).  Also, events that portray a theme of instability, volatility, and the unexpected. 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is 9% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.

Today's Market Outlook is again slightly Up to turning Down.  Once again, both the social mood signal and news signal are slightly positive.  However, with the mood signifying uncertainty and the unexpected, any news or rumor could tip the balance at any time.

after market update: actual S&P -5.2.

Today’s social mood signal is +2.9 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. However, even with a slightly positive signal, bulls should be cautious as the social mood signal is near resistance, meaning collective mood or outlook is hitting a ceiling as far as hope and optimism is concerned.
  



 
Today’s news signal is +5.3 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is slightly up. 
 


Thursday, August 29, 2013

Outlook 29 Aug '13: High Uncertainty; Markets Little Changed or Turning Down

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with uncertainty, surprises, and confusion.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are terrorist activity, geopolitical escalation, and extreme polarization (e.g. us vs. them, "good guys" vs. "bad guys).  Also, events that portray a theme of destruction, instability, and the unexpected. 
 
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is 9% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.

Today's market outlook is Little Changed or Turning Down.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are slightly positive.  However, with the mood signifying uncertainty and the unexpected, any news or rumor could tip the balance at any time.

after market update: actual S&P -3.2.

Today’s social mood signal is +2.5 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. However, bulls should be cautious as the social mood signal is near resistance, meaning not likely to get much higher in the near term.
  
 
Today’s news signal is +3.3 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  The news signal is slightly up, but not enough to be significant.
 


Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Outlook 28 Aug '13: News and Markets deteriorate further

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with violence, uncertainty, and instability.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are terrorist activity, geopolitical escalation, and extreme polarization (e.g. us vs. them, "good guys" vs. "bad guys).  Also, events that portray a theme of action, fires, and explosions. 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is 8% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.

Today's market outlook is down.  The news signal is more negative than the previous two days.  A climax could be near.  The social mood signal is slightly positive, but has a negative momentum.  Over the past few days, markets have primarily been following the news signal.

after market update: actual S&P +4.5However, immediately after market close, there was a large spike in VIX futures (i.e. the fear index).

Today’s social mood signal is +3.9 S&P points (with a negative momentum headwind).  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. However, over the last few days, the news (and the news signal) has been the dominant market influence.
  

Today’s news signal is -10.0 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  The news signal is accelerating in its downward turn, but has yet to catch up with the markets. 
 

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Military Action Imminent? - Special Update

update 28 Aug '13 - U.S. says, "We're past the point of no return" and airstrikes should be expected soon.  However, President Obama says, "No decision yet on Syria"

update 29 Aug '13 - US willing to act alone on Syria attack

- - -

Changes in collective mood this evening have been observed consistent with executive decisions and military action.  Although the U.S. has communicated that it would strike Syria "as soon as Thursday," a spike has just been observed in collective mood factors that correspond with executive decisions, action (or violence), government, and a polarized "good guy" vs. "bad guy" outlook.

Social mood and news stories were being reviewed in hopes of finding a change for the better in the volatile situation around Syria.  The observed spike, we believe, corresponds with an executive decision to commit to a course of action.  While it is only an educated guess that this would correspond with a go ahead for a strike on Syria, there is a definite change in the pattern.

Alternate analysis shows a surge in news coverage of "mass violence" is likely to begin somewhere between August 30 - September 6.


For more information on the current outlook or the MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

You can also like The MoodCompass Project on undefined.

Outlook 27 Aug '13: Mood turning Mixed; Market Down/Mixed

Today's market outlook is down/mixed.  The social mood signal has dropped from strong positive over the weekend to slightly positive.  The news signal has gone from slightly positive over the weekend to negative on Monday, continuing to be negative today.

Today’s social mood signal is +4.2 S&P points (with a negative momentum headwind).  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Social mood had been steadily pushing upward since mid-week last week, and markets had been following.  However, this upward climb has slowed, indicating a possible trend change in progress. 

after market update: actual S&P -26.3
 


Today’s news signal is -4.7 S&P points (with a positive momentum headwind).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  The news signal appears to be extending in its downward turn. 
 


Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggression and instability.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are violence and geopolitical escalation.  Also, events that portray a theme of activity, heat and fires.  The social mood pattern tends to go with choppy markets, the mood pattern taken from the news tends to go with uncertainty and volatility.

end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is 9% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.

Monday, August 26, 2013

Outlook 26 Aug '13: Mood Up in spite of Syria; Market Positive/Mixed

Today's market outlook is positive/mixed.  The social mood signal is strongly positive coming into the Monday open.  The news signal goes from slightly positive over the weekend to negative for Monday.

Today’s social mood signal is +9.1 S&P points (entire weekend signal, Sat thru today: +20.8).  Social mood has been steadily pushing upward since mid-week last week, and markets have been following.  There is no sign of any change in the social mood at this time.

after market update: actual S&P -6.7
 

Today’s news signal is -5.7 S&P points (entire weekend signal, Sat thru today: +2.5).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market. 
 



Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with optimism, aggression, and over-exuberance.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are sports, heroics, and geopolitical escalation.  Also, events that portray a theme of action, fires, and volcanoes.  The social mood pattern tends to go with growth and positive markets, the mood pattern taken from the news tends to go with destructive events and deteriorating socio-economic conditions.

end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down, although it is currently in a short term rebound.  The stock market is 10% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Outlook: Violent and Volatile Mood continues

Collective Mood for August 24, 2013 shows continued global risk of escalating violence and instability.  People may be feeling aggressive, agitated and/or energized and are more prone to take action than usual.  The risk for government initiated violence is high.

News events corresponding with the current social mood: Angry or violent protests, terrorist activity, and geopolitical escalation; also, earthquakes, heat, fires, and explosions.

A shift in mood is currently in process.  Global scale actions over the next few days may facilitate the completion of this shift.

end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:
 
Global Weekend News:
 

Thursday, August 22, 2013

Aug 23, 2013 Outlook: Mood-"on Stand by"; Market- Up

Today's market outlook is positive.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are slightly positive.  Yet, the news signal is indicating that an event perceived as either "very good" or "very bad" is near.

Today’s social mood signal is +3.3 S&P points.  However, social mood has broken down below support over the last few days, and has not significantly turned up.  Bulls should be cautious as markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

after market update: actual S&P +6.5
 

Today’s news signal is +1.2 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As the news signal remains flat, and the market continues to drop, tension builds.  A likely scenario is an upcoming news event that is perceived as either "really good," or "really bad."
 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with violence, over-exuberance, and disagreements.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are violent protests, terrorism, and geopolitical escalation.  Also, events that portray a theme of surprise, action, fires, and explosions.

end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is 11% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.

Aug 22, 2013 Outlook: Mood Confused, Market Down

Today's market outlook is negative.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are negative.  The news signal is indicating that an event perceived as either "very good" or "very bad" is near.

Today’s social mood signal is -9.2 S&P points, although mood momentum is positive.  Social mood has broken down below support.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

after market update: actual S&P +14.2
 theme of confusion in market: Nasdaq market paralyzed by 3-hour shutdown



 

Today’s news signal is -0.6 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As the news signal remains flat, and the market continues to drop, tension builds.  A likely scenario is an upcoming news event that is perceived as either "really good," or "really bad."
 



Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with violence and volatility, but appears to be is in transition.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are violent protests, terrorism, and geopolitical escalation.  Also, events that portray a theme of surprise, action, fires, and explosions.
 
end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes (confusion theme apparent):
 
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is 11% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.
 

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Aug 21, 2013 Outlook: Mood Violent, Market Down

Today's market outlook is negative.
The social mood signal is strongly negative, yet the news signal is neutral to positive.  The social mood pattern is in transition.
 
Today’s social mood signal is -11.9 S&P points.  Social mood appears to be breaking down below support.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

after market update: actual S&P -9.6, with violent moves today (down 13, up 17, then down 14)!
 



Today’s news signal is +0.6 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
 


Near term outlook:
The social mood pattern corresponds with violence and volatility, but appears to be is in transition.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are violent protests, terrorism, and geopolitical escalation.  Also, events that portray a theme of surprise, action, fires, and explosions. 
 
end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:
 
 
Longer term outlook:
The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is over 10% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.

 

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Aug 20, 2013 Outlook: Mood Active, Market Down / Mixed

Today's market outlook is negative, but in transition.
Both social mood and the news signals indicate a downward day is most likely.  However, the social mood pattern is in transition; a short term bottom may be near.
 
Today’s social mood signal is -6.1 S&P points.  Social mood appears to be breaking down below support.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

after market update: actual S&P +6.3, market mixed with DOW ending -7.8
 


Today’s news signal is -1.4 S&P points; news momentum indicates a short term bottom may be near.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As we’re currently in an inverted news cycle, today’s news may be perceived as slightly positive (yet bad for markets).

 
Near term outlook:
The social mood pattern corresponds with violence and volatility, but appears to be is in transition.  Common news events associated with the current pattern are violent protests, terrorism, and geopolitical escalation.  Also, events that portray a theme of surprise, action, fires, and explosions. 
 
end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:


Longer term outlook:
The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is over 9% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.


Monday, August 19, 2013

Aug 19, 2013 Outlook: Mood Volatile and Market Down

Today's market outlook is negative.  Both social mood and the news signals indicate a downward day is most likely.

Today’s social mood signal is -5.1 S&P points (entire weekend signal, Sat thru today: -6.6).  Social mood continues to slowly, but surely be breaking down below support.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

after market update: actual S&P -9.8

 

Today’s news signal is -3.1 S&P points
(entire weekend signal, Sat thru today: +8.3).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As we’re currently in an inverted news cycle, today’s news may be perceived as slightly positive (yet bad for markets), although the overall weekend news would appear moderately negative (yet good for markets).

Near term outlook:
The social mood patterns correspond with violence and volatility.  Common news events associated with current patterns are violent protests, terrorism, and geopolitical escalation.  Also, events that portray a theme of surprise, action, fires, and explosions.


end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:

10000-gallon tank explodes at Pa. plant; 1 dead
Beaver Creek Blaze in Idaho shows no signs of slowing down
Strong winds fan fire along Columbia River
Dick Van Dyke rescued from burning car
Meet Sunny, the new dog adopted by the Obamas (the dog's name, Sunny, is "fiery")
 
Longer term outlook:
The social mood trend is down.  The stock market is over 9% above what social mood will support.  This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Violence and Volatility: Global Outlook Wk of 19 Aug '13

Social Mood patterns indicate a spike in factors related to violence and volatility.  This pattern signals even more global violence and instability in the next few days.  Markets continue to look shaky as the week begins.  To add to the uncertainty, a short term trend change is near.


Update 8/23/2013:  There definitely was a spike in global violence, with the primary example being the Syria chemical attack and the possible counterattacks currently on the table. In the markets, there was at least a short term trend change as the markets continued down into mid-day Wednesday and then climbed through Friday.