U.S. Market & Mood: June 29-July 2, 2015

Risk aversion may peak early in the week.  By midweek, a shift in the pattern shows a new mindset beginning to take hold. Market losses this week are likely going to be greater than last week's.


Social mood shows less willingness to cooperate and an increase in belligerence and willingness to challenge authority.  Tension is likely to lead to a climactic action either during this week or the following one.

Update July 2: Markets were down 1.1% this week.  This is a greater loss than the previous week's 0.5%.




 

U.S. Market and Mood: June 21-27, 2015

Change is in the air as the week begins.  Instability, large moves, and uncertainty are all likely themes (see chart left), especially in the first half of the week.  Tension and anticipation build near the end of the week. 

A large directional move is indicated in the markets this week.  The increasing sense of vulnerability (chart below, right) is most often associated with risk-aversion, decreased spending, and down markets.

U.S. Market and Mood (June 14-20, 2015)

The week begins with an effort to put on a positive, "yes we can" attitude.  There may be some lingering, ongoing economic concerns and domestic issues, but the sense is that they can be addressed and turned around.  Competing with this resolve to look at the bright side, is a background of destabilizing factors, some of which comes from outside the U.S.  People begin to get agitated and anxious as the week goes on.  Midweek could even see a "mild panic" or moment of passion (strong emotions), as a general sense of increasing vulnerability begins to take hold  By week's end, risk aversion is becoming more pronounced, and markets are getting more decidedly bearish.  People have fixed ideas and opinions of "the facts," and are more willing to talk about them.  Protests and demonstrations are on the increase.

Analysis of U.S.-China relations shows China posturing in a more aggressive tone near June 18.

U.S. Market and Mood (June 1-13, 2015)

Social mood patterns for the first week of June indicates anxiety and restlessness.  Markets should be choppy for the most part with little clear direction.  Sometime near the end of the first week or very early in the second week, a directional move should occur.  The most  likely direction is down, as this transitory pattern is most often associated with bearish markets and risk aversion.  Spatial analysis by the MoodCompass team shows economic concerns likely arising from outside the United States having some effect on U.S. markets (see The Crow's Nest blog entry for June).

By midweek the week of June 7 and continuing through the end of the week, a "new paradigm" pattern is in play.  This marks a new chapter in U.S. social mood.  Things should become a lot clearer as to global conditions and market direction as the week plays out.   A shift to this new outlook and new priorities will be in process.  Be ready for something different!

Analysis of U.S. - China relations shows a significant development near June 11.