Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Outlook 31 December '13

after market update: actual S&P +7.3.  Mood has been climbing over the last few days and markets joined in today, breaking up from a two day pause.  Will the trend continue in the New Year?  We will see what collective mood says for 1/2/14. 

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Overview: Collective mood reflects global trends of aggression and violence. There's an elevated global risk for natural destructive events, especially volcanoes and fires. Mood signals for the day indicate a mild market rally is likely.
 
Today's Signals: +1.2 from Google Hot Trends, +5.7 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.
 
   (click to enlarge)


Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Sunday, December 29, 2013

Increasing Global Violence and Aggression: Outlook 30 December '13

after market update: actual S&P -0.33   The attacks in Russia and Iraq over the weekend demonstrate the surge in violent mood.  Will this trend continue?   Markets were relatively unchanged once again, in line with the news themes signal of +0.3.  The divergence between social mood and markets is still high, although the gap was narrowed slightly today.

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Overview: Collective mood shows increasing aggression and violence globally.  Increasing global risk for natural destructive events, especially volcanoes and fires. Mood signals for the day indicate a market rally, but markets are highly overbought relative to social mood.
 
Today's Signals: +20.8 from Google Hot Trends, +0.3 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signal from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.
 
  (click to enlarge)


Mood signal from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Thursday, December 26, 2013

A New Chapter: Outlook 27 December '13

after market update: actual S&P -0.62 (-0.03%).   Markets were relatively unchanged.  The divergence between social mood and markets is still at extreme levels.  A correction is near.

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Overview: The social mood pattern for today reflects a new paradigm or a new collective chapter.  Themes in the news reflect deterioration or disaster.  The combination is often seen with natural disasters, but there is no indication that one is especially likely in the U.S.  Markets are near a "ceiling" area.
 
Today's Market Outlook is slightly up to sharply down ( -0.7% to +0.1% ).  The social mood signal and is slightly up, but the signal from themes in the news is sharply down.  Also, the market is extremely overbought relative to social mood giving an extra nudge to the downside.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook:  reflects a new paradigm or a new collective chapter.  Themes in the news reflect deterioration or disaster.  The combination is often seen with natural disasters, but there is no indication that one is especially likely in the U.S.  The combined pattern of news an social mood reflects an ending of a paradigm or chapter.
 
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. The signal is at a significant resistant point and may have difficulty moving up further-- i.e. markets may be hitting a "ceiling."
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, is likely in the next few months.  There is no indication this process has started or is imminent.
 
Today’s social mood signal is +1.1 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.
 
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Today’s news signal is -13.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

U.S. Mass Violence Threat Resolves: Outlook 26 December '13

after market update: actual S&P +8.7 (+0.5%).   Markets again continued up.  The divergence between social mood and markets is at extreme levels.  An abrupt shift is getting more likely.

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Overview: There has been a collective mood pattern coinciding with risk of small scale mass violence that has continued to linger since just before the Arapahoe High School shooting.  It is finally showing a resolution (all clear) as of tomorrow.  The social mood pattern for today reflects holiday merry making, but also self sacrifice for a cause.  Themes in the news reflect vulnerability to violence or attack.  Markets are near a "ceiling" area.
 
Mass Violence Threat:  Since December 8, 2013 a collective mood pattern coinciding with U.S. disasters and mass violent incidents has been observed and discussed here.  Of particular interest is the pattern observed with the Boston Marathon event, the Navy Yard Shooting, and the recent  Arapahoe High School shooting (see chart below).  The Boston Marathon was followed by the W. Texas fertilizer plant explosion, and then was resolved (shown by the orange line).  The resolution in the pattern after the Navy Yard shooting is shown by an orange line.  The Arapahoe High School shooting was followed by the Reno Hospital shooting.  Until the orange line shown for the 26th, there has been no resolution and another event has been anticipated.  As of the 26th, this pattern can be considered resolved.
 
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Today's Market Outlook is slightly up to moderately down ( -0.1% to +0.1% ).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are slightly on either side of unchanged, yet the market is overbought relative to social mood giving a slight edge to the downside.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook:  aggression reflects holiday merry making, but also self sacrifice for a cause.  Themes in the news reflect vulnerability to violence or attack.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects general "bad news."  
 
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. The signal is at a significant resistant point and may have difficulty moving up further-- i.e. markets may be hitting a "ceiling."
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, may be near.
 
Today’s social mood signal is +1.2 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.
 
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Today’s news signal is -1.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Monday, December 23, 2013

Outlook: 24 December '13

after market update: actual S&P +5.3 (+0.3%).   Markets again continued up.  The divergence between social mood and markets is becoming extreme.

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Overview: A developing pattern in the contrast between social mood and the news is reminiscent of when the Boston Marathon event occurred.  There is an elevated risk for a similar type event (likely on a smaller scale).  The social mood pattern for today reflects aggression and an awakening to reality.  Themes in the news reflect general "bad news."  Markets are near a "ceiling" area.

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately down ( -0.1% to -0.2%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are down, and the market is overbought relative to social mood.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)
 
Near term mood outlook:  aggression and an awakening to reality.  Themes in the news reflect general "bad news."  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects aggression, violence, and a rising background of global economic concerns.  
 
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. The signal is at a significant resistant point and may have difficulty moving up further-- i.e. markets may be hitting a "ceiling."
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, may be near.
 
Today’s social mood signal is -4.2 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.
 
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Today’s news signal is -1.2 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Shadows of Boston Marathon: 23 December '13

after market update: actual S&P +8.7 (+0.48%).   Markets continued up today, and are now overbought relative to social mood.

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Overview: A developing pattern in the contrast between social mood and the news is reminiscent of when the Boston Marathon event occurred.  There is an elevated risk for a similar type event (likely on a smaller scale) today and tomorrow. The social mood pattern for today reflects aggression and willingness to take action.  Themes in the news reflect uncertainty.  Markets are near a "ceiling" area.

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately down ( +0.1% to -0.5%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are up.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)
 
Near term mood outlook:  aggression and rising uncertainty.  Themes in the news reflect uncertainty.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects aggression, violence, and an elevated risk for anti-establishment or terrorist activity world-wide.  
 
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. The signal is at a significant resistant point and may have difficulty moving up further-- i.e. markets may be hitting a "ceiling."
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, may be near.
 
Today’s social mood signal is +1.8 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.
 
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Today’s news signal is -9.1 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Outlook 20 December '13

after market update: actual S&P +5.9 (+0.3%). 

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Overview: The social mood pattern for today reflects aggression and willingness to take action.  Themes in the news reflect uncertainty.  Market signals are up, however, markets are highly overbought relative to social mood, so anything can happen. Markets are near a "ceiling" area.

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately up (0% to +0.3%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are up.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)
 
Near term mood outlook:  aggression and rising uncertainty.  Themes in the news reflect uncertainty.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects aggression, violence, and an elevated risk for destructive events or disasters world-wide.  
 
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. The signal is at a significant resistant point and may have difficulty moving up further-- i.e. markets may be near a "ceiling."
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, may be in its early stages.
 
Today’s social mood signal is +5.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.
 
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Today’s news signal is +0.5 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Rising Global Instability: Outlook 19 December '13

after market update: actual S&P -1.05 (-0.1%). With rising uncertainty, markets were little changed today.  Markets continue to be seriously overbought relative to social mood.  Today's tragic incident in London (Apollo Theatre ceiling collapses in London) indicates the disaster/tragedy configuration is still in play on a global scale.  We are no longer looking for a specifically U.S. disaster/tragedy.  The incidents at Arapahoe High School and Reno Hospital appear to have been sufficient to move out of the danger zone for now.

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Overview: The social mood pattern for today reflects aggression and rising uncertainty.  Themes in the news reflect instability and uncertainty.  Market signals are up, however, markets are highly overbought relative to social mood so anything can happen.  We had expected to remove the U.S. disaster/tragedy watch today, but will wait at least until tomorrow as the configuration is not clearly resolved.  (see More Info on Next U.S. Tragedy).

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately up (+0,1% to +0.3%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are up.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)
 
Near term mood outlook:  aggression and rising uncertainty.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects global aggression, violence, and an elevated risk for protests and terrorist activity.  
 
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. 
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, may be in its early stages.
 
Today’s social mood signal is +4.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.
 
 (click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is +1.8 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Outlook 18 December '13

after market update: actual S&P +29.7 (+1.7%). Social mood wanted the market to go up, and up it went today.  Tomorrow is the last day for the U.S. disaster/tragedy watch.  Hopefully, it will pass without incident.  With the markets so seriously overbought relative to social mood, tomorrow could be interesting regardless.

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Overview: The social mood pattern for today reflects aggression and a desire for direction.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster, with a possible link to government or government intervention.  Markets are likely to be up.  There is still a U.S. disaster/tragic event watch for one more day (see More Info on Next U.S. Tragedy) as we ensure that the Arapahoe shooting,  the Reno hospital shooting, and the Alabama apartment explosion were intense enough to resolve the social mood pattern.

Today's Market Outlook is moderately up (+0.4%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are up.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)
 
Near term mood outlook:  aggression and a desire for direction.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster, with a possible link to government or government intervention.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects aggression, a desire for leadership and direction, and an elevated risk of geopolitical escalation.  
 
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. 
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, may be in its early stages.
 
Today’s social mood signal is +7.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.
 
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Today’s news signal is +6.7 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Monday, December 16, 2013

Outlook 17 December '13

U.S. Disaster/Tragedy watch update:  Two dead, two injured in Reno medical facility shootings.  Another tragic shooting, but as with the Arapahoe High School shooting last week, the extent of it may not be enough to shift social mood out of the pattern.  When tomorrow's outlook is posted in a few hours, there may be enough information to see if this was it.
 
after market update: actual S&P -5.54 (-0.3%). Markets were little changed today. 

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Overview: The social mood pattern for today reflects a desire for leadership, direction, and optimism.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  Markets should try to maintain an upward rebound.  There is still a U.S. disaster/tragic event watch for few more days (see More Info on Next U.S. Tragedy).

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately up ( 0% to +0.4%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are up.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)
 
Near term mood outlook:  a desire for leadership, direction, and optimism.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects an elevated global desire for leadership, direction, and optimism; and an elevated risk of geopolitical escalation.  
 
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. 
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, may be in its early stages.
 
Today’s social mood signal is +8.0 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.
 
 (click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is +0.9 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Wishing Hard for Christmas Cheer: Outlook 16 December '13

after market update: actual S&P +11.22 (+0.6%); Markets were up today, resolving the large divergence between mood signal and market.  The wish for Holiday Cheer (optimism) in today's social mood appears to have been satisfied, and was stronger than today's calculated mood signal.

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Overview: The social mood pattern for today reflects a desire for leadership, direction, and optimism.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  Markets could be sharply down today, but may try to rally in line with the collective desire for optimism.  There is still a U.S. disaster/tragic event watch for few more days (see More Info on Next U.S. Tragedy).

Today's Market Outlook is down ( -0.5% to -0.7%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are down.  A climax may be near.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

 (click to enlarge)
 
Near term mood outlook:  a desire for leadership, direction, and optimism.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects an elevated global desire for leadership, direction, and optimism; and an elevated risk of geopolitical escalation.  
 
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. 
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, may be in its early stages.
 
Today’s social mood signal is -11.8 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.
 
 (click to enlarge)


Today’s news signal is -8.5 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)
 
 
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

More Info on the Next U.S. Tragedy

The latest information suggests the next big U.S. tragedy will be early this week.  One week ago, the latest information showed the next big U.S. tragedy was days away.  On the 10th, it appeared imminent.  Friday's shooting at Arapahoe High School could have been the next disaster, but it wasn't.  It was a tragedy, but did not resolve the pattern that has been developing in collective mood.  There is something else still likely to show up.

Below is the latest graph of social mood relative to U.S. news (an update to what was presented last week).  Storm Electra has been added to the chart. 

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Notice what has happened to the pattern.  This line had appeared to be peaking near December 10th as the ice storms were completing.  This would mean that a major U.S. tragic event was right around the corner.  The Arapahoe shooting happened immediately after this apparent peak, but this line then started to climb again.  The added segment over this past week, with Storm Electra added, shows a peaking had not yet occurred... until now.  So, again, as was said in the original post on this event, if the pre-disaster pattern that can be clearly seen with the Boston Marathon event, and the recent Navy Yard shooting, continues to hold true, then America is only days away from its next big tragedy.