Outlook 31 December '13

after market update: actual S&P +7.3.  Mood has been climbing over the last few days and markets joined in today, breaking up from a two day pause.  Will the trend continue in the New Year?  We will see what collective mood says for 1/2/14. 

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Overview: Collective mood reflects global trends of aggression and violence. There's an elevated global risk for natural destructive events, especially volcanoes and fires. Mood signals for the day indicate a mild market rally is likely.

 

Today's Signals: +1.2 from Google Hot Trends, +5.7 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.

 

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.