Collective Mood, Global Events, and the Market

Expectations of news themes and stock market movement based on social mood patterns. Research spanning two decades converting social mood information into numerical data is the foundation of the material in this blog. Top internet search trends are scored daily in eight mood factors. The Market Mood Model converts those numbers into expected changes in the stock market, gold, crude oil, and the U.S. Dollar. Presented here is an analysis of the mood patterns and implications for the markets.

Monday, October 26, 2015

Social Mood and Stock Market Abnormally MANIC!

Social mood (as well as the stock market) has ups and downs, but arising in the last couple of days, a MANIC spike is concerning. The chart below shows a normal range of ups and down in social mood factors since August. The spike showing up is clearly NOT NORMAL. Manic mood often accompanies instability, protests, and sometimes terrorist activity. A "crazy" news event of some type is likely.

Update: 31 Oct 2015 Russian jet downed by ISIS That definitely is Not Normal and terrorist activity.

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The stock market is clearly overly excited as well. The daily social mood signal is at resistance and doesn't seem to be able to break through. The stock market has continued to move higher in spite of the anxiety the public is experiencing. Either people are about to be feeling a whole lot better, or the market is going to hit a wall.

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