Trying to Ignore the Inevitable: Outlook 30 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P -10.2 (-0.6%); Markets started down about 1%, then climbed to near unchanged and then back down in a choppy fashion.  Denial of the inevitable, and hope that there will be a last minute deal kept markets from falling further than they did.

News story that captured today's denial of irrationality theme almost exactly:  The Republicans Fighting Obamacare Aren't Crazy
- - -

Overview:  A U.S. government shutdown appears inevitable at this point, and the strongest negative influence is coming from the high uncertainty in the news.  Social mood reflects a desperate pushing to disprove weakness or vulnerability, while the themes in the news reflect an active denial of appearing irrational or delusional.  Markets could be confused and choppy, but most likely down.

Today's Market Outlook is Sharply Down to Near Unchanged (-0.2% to -0.8%).  At the time of this posting, the social mood signal from over the weekend is slightly negative, and the signal from the news is strongly negative.  Signal momentum indicates a choppy and confused market is possible today; although most likely down.  The markets will likely stick closer to the news signal for the next few days.

 

Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with an agenda of disproving weakness or vulnerability.  Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are uncertainty, confusion, volatility, and trying to deny or disprove irrationality.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood curve may be turning up.  If so, a large market bounce could be due within a few days (would that also mean a U.S. government deal could be reached this week?).

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down, but not definitively.  Confirmation of a continuation of the long term downtrend has not yet occurred.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -12.1 S&P points (the entire weekend signal, Saturday thru Monday, is -3.1 S&P points).  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Signal is near support, the next few days are critical to direction. 

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is +3.5  S&P points (entire weekend signal, Saturday through today, is -13.2 S&P points).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

(click to enlarge)

 

Today's expected stock market range is calculated as -3.1 S&P points (weekend social mood signal) or -13.2 S&P points (weekend news signal)  -0.2% to -0.8%.  

As News Deteriorates, Markets are Heading over the Cliff

Various pundits say the U.S. budget and debt limit crisis could affect the markets and possibly unravel the fragile economic recovery that apparently is on its way.  If Monday's preliminary collective mood charts are even close to the final version we will publish in about 18 hours, there could definitely be a problem. 

Our preliminary charts for Monday show a plunge in the mood reflected by the news.  They also show social mood dipping below support.  Does this mean a sharp market drop is at hand?  On Friday, in our after market notes, we shared this: "If both the mood and the news go south over the weekend, that could spell big trouble next week."

Hmmm...

Below are the preliminary charts for Monday.  They show a 1-2% drop is possible on Monday.  The news chart is pretty ominous looking, but the top one, the social mood chart is actually hopeful, as it is bad but not terrible.  As that will be behind the decisions made, and it hasn't solidly broken down, markets may hang in there and not drop precipitously.  Perhaps there is even a chance for a last minute deal.  Stay tuned for the final chart early Monday morning.

(click to enlarge)

 

(click to enlarge)

 

 

Riding the Budget Roller Coaster: Outlook 27 Sept. '13

after market update: actual S&P -6.92 (-0.41%); Markets started with a big drop and spent the rest of the session choppy and sideways.  The Nasdaq was positive for part of the session, but the DOW and S&P stayed negative.  For today, the news weighed more heavily than the mood.  Yet, the "gotta  keep pushing, gotta stay hopeful" mood likely prevented the markets from falling more than they did.

If both the mood and the news go south over the weekend, that could spell big trouble next week.
- - -

Overview:  Although it looks unlikely at this point that the government will be able to work things out in time to avoid either a shutdown or default, people in general don't seem to be excessively worried about it right now.  Social mood reflects desperate pushing towards competing goals.  This, combined with the high uncertainty in the news, could leave markets rallying one minute only to fall in the next.

Today's Market Outlook is Mixed to Up (-0.1% to +0.7%).  At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is positive, yet the signal from the news is slightly negative.  Signal momentum indicates a choppy market is likely today as competing forces vie for control.  Watch for news events to impinge on any rallies that may develop.

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with desperately pushing toward a goal (and competing with others pushing toward other goals).  Common news themes associated with the current news mood pattern are uncertainty, confusion, and volatility.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down; the bounce over the last month appears to be complete.  However, confirmation of a continuation of the long term downtrend has not yet occurred.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +13.2 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Signal is at support, the next few days are critical to direction. 

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is -0.2 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)

Eyes on Washington; Market Breakdown?: Outlook 26 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P +5.88 (+0.35%); There was a focus on Washington, yet the markets climbed anyway.  There was an upward breakout followed by a drop to near unchanged, ending with about half of the early gains.  Markets were one directional, as forecasted, refusing to spend one moment negative today. 

BTW, the reason for the uncertainty around direction of breakout on our end (see Today's Market Outlook below), was that the social mood to market model was in the midst of a polarity flip today. We could tell that the markets today would be directional, but not which direction.
- - -

Overview:  The mood shows movement in a specific direction; a focus on leadership.  After two doji days, markets should be ready to make a definite move.  Will U.S. government leadership shake things up today?  Will it be a break down or break through?

Today's Market Outlook is Unchanged to Breakout (near -0.1% or breakout move in either direction).  Both social mood and the news appear to be slowly breaking below support.  A large market drop may be at hand.  At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the news signals are slightly negative.  There is therefore a bias in the negative direction.  The mood, however, will support a one directional move in either direction.

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with leadership and directional movement.  Common news themes associated with the current news mood pattern are uncertainty, confusion, and volatility.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, terrorist activity, and geopolitical escalation.  Diplomatic endeavors or negotiations are not likely to succeed at this time, as a mood of genuine cooperation is almost non-existent.

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down; the bounce over the last month appears to be complete.  However, confirmation of a continuation of the long term downtrend has not yet occurred.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -2.6 S&P points.  Signal is at support, the next few days are critical to direction.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is -1.9 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)

Desperation Time, No Real Progress: Outlook 25 Sept. '13

after market update: actual S&P -4.64 (-0.27%); Markets did have a brief  bounce today, yet couldn't hold it.  Uncertainty over Washington's path through the budget and debt limit issues are cited as the primary reasons markets can't continue higher.
- - -

Overview:  The mood reflects desperation and endings.  The momentum of collective mood deterioration has slowed, and a short term stock market bounce may occur.  However, with no real positives, any rallies should be short lived.  A large market drop may be at hand.

Today's Market Outlook is Unchanged to Slightly Down (0% to -0.2%).  Mood signal momentum is showing that a bounce may occur today, yet the negative mood signal says to expect it to be difficult to hold any rallies through the end of the session. Both social mood and the news appear to be slowly breaking below support.  A large market drop may be at hand.  At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal is slightly negative and the news signal barely positive. 

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with exasperation and desperately pushing toward a goal (and competing with others pushing toward other goals).  Common news themes associated with the current news mood pattern are uncertainty, confusion, and volatility.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, terrorist activity, and geopolitical escalation.  Diplomatic endeavors or negotiations are not likely to succeed at this time, as a mood of genuine cooperation is almost non-existent.

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down; the bounce over the last month appears to be complete.  However, confirmation of a continuation of the long term downtrend has not yet occurred.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -3.1 S&P points.  Signal is at support, the next few days are critical to direction.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is +0.4 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)

Pushing Hard, Going Nowhere: Outlook 24 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P -4.36 (-0.26%); It was quite a nowhere, meandering day for the markets.  As a heads up, social mood momentum showed a near term trend change is lurking.  Check tomorrow's outlook for indications of a possible short term rally. 
- - -

Overview:  Things are looking shaky, as the collective mood portrays a desperate push toward a goal.  Violence and other news themes showing instability and uncertainty have continued since the weekend.  Markets could be choppy as the new downward trend takes hold.

Today's Market Outlook is Slightly Down (-0.1% to -0.2%).  A stock market drop is in progress.  Social mood turned sharply down last week; the markets appear to be joining that trend.  At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the news signal are slightly negative. 

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggressiveness, and desperately pushing in a specific direction (or two or three specific directions).  Common news themes associated with the current news mood pattern are uncertainty, confusion, and volatility.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, terrorist activity, and geopolitical escalation.  Diplomatic endeavors or negotiations are not likely to succeed at this time, as a mood of genuine cooperation is almost non-existent.

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down; the bounce over the last month appears to be complete.  However, confirmation of a continuation of the long term downtrend has not yet occurred.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -3.9 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is -1.4 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)

Fraying at the Edges: Outlook 23 Sept. '13

after market update: actual S&P -8.03 (-0.5%); Markets opened nearly unchanged, then dropped down about 0.6%, only to spend the rest of the session moving sideways.  Uncertainty over the looming budget  deadline and ever more likely government shutdown are named as primary causes. 
- - -

Overview:  Things are looking less bright, as the collective mood portrays a strong push in two or three competing directions. The social mood pattern is also associated with aggressiveness.  Violence and other news themes showing rising instability have continued over the weekend; the mood continues to show an elevated risk of volatility.  Markets could be choppy as the new downward trend takes hold.

Today's Market Outlook is Down to Unchanged (-0.7% to +0.0%).  A sharp stock market drop may be in progress.  Social mood has been sharply down since last week.  The markets should be joining the trend momentarily.  At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is negative.  The news signal is neutral to negative.

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggressiveness, and pushing in a specific direction (or two or three specific directions).  Common news themes associated with the current news mood pattern are uncertainty, confusion, and volatility.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, terrorist activity, and geopolitical escalation.  Diplomatic endeavors or negotiations are not likely to succeed at this time, as a mood of genuine cooperation is almost non-existent.

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned sharply down; the bounce over the last month appears to be complete.  However, confirmation of a continuation of the long term downtrend has not yet occurred.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -7.7 S&P points (entire weekend signal Saturday through Monday is +3.4).  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is +0.3 S&P points (entire weekend signal Saturday through Monday is -12.8).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)

At the Edge of a Cliff: Outlook 20 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P -12.6 (-0.7%); Markets opened nearly unchanged, up about 0.2%.  Following this, they slowly declined the rest of the day.  The House passed a stopgap funding bill, tied to defunding Obamacare.  Does this give us the title for the next "chapter"-- the U.S. funding/debt crisis?  Does today mark the first step off the cliff?


news ties markets and this next chapter together: Dow down nearly 200 points as uncertainty returns
- - -

Overview:  The mood portrays a perception of an "ending of a chapter."  This together with the sharp drop in social mood showing up over the last few days, indicates that the new reality showing up next week may be quite surprising and disturbing.

Today's Market Outlook is Nearly Unchanged (-0.1% to +0.3%).  A sharp stock market drop is likely to begin within a few days.  Social mood is sharply down over the past several days, and the markets should be joining the trend by early next week.  At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is slightly positive, and the news signal is barely negative.

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with perceptions that a national or global "chapter" is ending, and a new one very near beginning.  Common news themes associated with the current news mood pattern are uncertainty, confusion, and over-indulgence.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, terrorist activity, and geopolitical escalation.  Diplomatic endeavors or negotiations are not likely to succeed at this time, as a mood of genuine cooperation is almost non-existent.

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned sharply down; the bounce over the last month appears to be complete. 

 

Today’s social mood signal is +4.9 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is -0.5 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)

Sharp Deterioration of Social Mood: Outlook 19 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P -3.2 (-0.2%); The sharp drop in mood did not yet translate into a sharp market drop as the trend change takes hold and people collectively struggle with assessing a new reality.

news stories that fit today's themes: 13 Wounded as Gunmen Open Fire in Chicago Park
- - -

Overview:  A sharp stock market drop is likely in the next few days.  Social mood is sharply down, and the markets are within a day or two of joining the trend.  In the early stages of a trend change there is often confusion and hesitation as forces pull in both directions, and people try to make sense of the changes they are perceiving. Estimated losses for today as high as 1-2%.

Today's Market Outlook is Sharply Down.  The social mood signal is strongly negative.  At the time of this posting, the news signal is slightly positive.  News signal momentum indicates a trend change is near. 

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with perceptions of destruction, deterioration, and violence or volatility.  Common news themes associated with the current pattern are confusion, and violence or volatility.  The combined pattern at times accompanies violence, instability, terrorist activity, and geopolitical escalation.  Diplomatic endeavors or negotiations are not likely to succeed at this time, as a genuine mood of cooperation is almost non-existent.

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned sharply down; the bounce over the last month appears to be complete. 

 

Today’s social mood signal is -18.2 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is +4.0 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)

Likely response to FOMC: volatility and confusion-- Outlook 18 Sept. '13

after market update: actual S&P +20.7 (+1.2%); FOMC announcement response was volatility and confusion, as they did what no one expected-- no tapering at all right now.  The divergence between markets and social mood is not sustainable.  Are people about to get really happy or are the markets about to drop sharply?  The next few days could give us the answer.

Overview:  Today is the much anticipated FOMC meeting that is supposed to begin tapering of quantitative easing.  There are clues from social mood analysis as to what the likely response is today.  Collective mood appears to have turned down; the markets should be close behind. Yet, in the early stages of a trend change there is often confusion and hesitation as forces pull in both directions, and people try to make sense of the changes they are perceiving.  Today's stock market could be volatile and confused.  Estimated gains / losses for today are nearly unchanged to down 1/3%.

Today's Market Outlook is Mixed to Down.  The social mood signal is slightly negative as of the time of this posting, and the news signal is slightly positive. 

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with "the closing of a chapter." Common news themes associated with the current pattern are confusion and uncertainty.  The combined pattern at times accompanies volatility, instability, and geopolitical or economic uncertainty.  

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend appears to be turning down; the bounce over the last month may be complete.   

 

Today’s social mood signal is -5.7 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is +5.6 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)

Day of Reckoning for the U.S. and the Global Economy

It's difficult to tell whether the stock market will go up a little bit higher before topping or not, but what is clear is that social mood is not likely to climb past where it is right now.  And because the stock market closely follows social mood, and because the economy is roughly a few months behind both the stock market and social mood, this is a topic that should be of interest to almost everyone.

The United States, and in fact, the world, are at a critical juncture right now.  The U.S. has enjoyed the benefit of exporting many of the costs of quantitative easing, due to its being the world's primary reserve currency.  As tapering is expected to begin, it just so happens that social mood, the collective sense of the people and their evaluation of the moment, is also at a critical juncture. Technically, it appears to be nearing a brick wall, past which it is not likely to push through in the near future.  In fact, according to measurements from Google Hot Trends, the social mood equivalent in stock market points has been in a downtrend for about a year.  It almost doesn't matter what the Fed does now.

The chart below shows the last six months of social mood (converted to stock market points) vs. the stock market.  People familiar with technical analysis of stock market charts will be able to see that the dashed red line, called "signal" in this chart, is brushing up against some very solid looking resistance.  There are two things that can happen here: 1) People become all together exuberant about their future through some collective sense of optimism that appears in the next few weeks, allowing the social mood to plow through this thick wall of resistance or 2) Social mood goes no higher and the market starts falling.  The economy would start feeling the effects a few months after that.

(click to enlarge)

Looking at a chart (below) of mood gleaned from top U.S. news stories, and converted to stock market points, a similar crossroads emerges.  Over the past month or so, the news (bad as it may seem) is actually reflecting a world of much more robust growth and expansion than is being reflected by the stock market.  The stock market is at a resistance point which it may or may not get through.  Another very strong resistance point is less than 2% above that.  Two things can happen in the next few weeks (and months): 1) The stock market and economy take off in a new burst of growth and prosperity that has not been seen in many, many decades or 2) There is some very, very, very bad news or a series of very bad news events which take the news signal down to a level more closely corresponding with where social mood and the markets actually are.

(click to enlarge)

Watching the production of resources peaking around the world, seeing the effects of climate change wreak havoc with weather systems, lifestyles, and food production, watching population grow and waste become ever more excessive, it seems the odds would be on the side of a socioeconomic top.  It is likely that a clear path will have begun toward one of the two directions by the end of the year.  By next month, we could have a pretty good idea. 

Social Mood and Markets are Pointing Down again: Outlook 17 Sept '13

Overview:  Collective mood has turned down and the markets should be right behind it.  The world is looking less stable and predictable.  People are feeling less safe as this realization becomes more pronounced.  Estimated stock market losses today near 1/2%.

after market update: actual S&P +7.2 (+0.42%); Markets were up near 1/2%.  With tension building between dropping social mood and rising stock markets, tomorrow could be very interesting.

Today's Market Outlook is Down.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are negative as of the time of this posting.  Sometimes markets have a slight lag at major turning points.  However, upside should be limited, and any rallies should soon be met with selling pressure.

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with directed action or violence and rising seriousness, not surprising after yesterday's events. Common news events associated with the current pattern are geopolitical escalation, terrorist activity, and disasters, the same as yesterday.  Diplomacy efforts may appear less and less likely to be successful.

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend had turned positive within a larger downward trend.  The positive bounce may be complete; resuming of the larger downtrend is at hand.  

 

Today’s social mood signal is -7.6 S&P points (click on chart to enlarge).

Today’s news signal is -4.1 S&P points (click on chart to enlarge).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is down.   

 

 

Bursting the Bubble: Outlook 16 Sept ' 13

after market update: actual S&P +9.7 (+0.57%); Nasdaq -4.3.  Market were up over 1% at open, as a gunman stormed the Naval Ship Yard in Washington D.C.  They went sideways and dropped to lose half their gains by closing.
- - -

Overview: Climax is afoot; trend change at hand.  Today's social mood and news signals taken from the entire weekend show a surge of direction, countered by hesitancy and mixed feeling.  At the time of this posting, futures are way up, apparently due to Summer's withdrawal from consideration as a Fed chair.  Yet, both mood and news signals do not support a smooth ride.  The mood is clearly topping and getting shaky.  The markets should turn down from their highs at some point in the session, and possibly even end the day in the negative. The call for today therefore, is nearly unchanged in spite of the large rally going into the opening.

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with directed action or violence. Common news events associated with the current pattern are geopolitical escalation, terrorist activity, and  disasters.  

 

end of day update: today's themes in the news--

Shooting rampage at Navy Yard in DC leaves 13 dead

Turkey Says It Shot Down Syrian Military Helicopter Flying in Its Airspace

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned positive within a larger downward trend.  The positive bounce has near run its course; resuming of the larger downtrend is near.  

Today's Market Outlook is Unchanged / Mixed.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are positive as of the time of this posting.  Both social mood and news signal momentum indicate a very high risk of trend change. 

Today’s social mood signal is +8.2 S&P points (entire weekend signal Saturday thru Monday is -0.2 S&P points).  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Mood signal is moderately positive at the time of this posting, but social mood momentum indicates a trend change is near, if not in progress.  Looking at the signal for the entire weekend, it should be difficult for markets to stay positive till day's end.

  

Today’s news signal is +1.6 S&P points (entire weekend signal Saturday thru Monday is +1.2 S&P points).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is slightly up.  Signal momentum shows strong risk of trend change.  

 

 

A New Disaster Indicated? 15-16 Sept '13

In a preliminary look at Monday's social mood and stock market, a sudden change is seen showing up sometime Sunday/Monday.  This big shift, as it looks now, would translate into a 200-300 point drop in the DOW or about 24 points in the S&P on Monday.  What could cause such a mad rush out of the markets?

There may be several causes attributed to such a shift.  Some may blame it on the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Fed meeting.  Or, it may be simply because collective mood has changed and is turning to a more protective or fearful place. 

It also happens that there are quite a few "disasters" in the news right now (e.g. Colorado flooding, New Jersey boardwalk fire).  Would a market drop be seen as one more of these "disasters" right now?  Or, possibly, would something else be attributed as the immediate cause of such a market drop? (BTW-- we cautioned about an upcoming "disaster season" indicated by collective mood back on September 3).

FYI- Below are the preliminary mood and market charts for Monday.  The abrupt change on Sunday is clear in the social mood signal as well as the one from the mood portrayed in the news.

 

Markets topping, but Hanging in: Outlook 13 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P +4.57(+0.27%) Dow up 1/2%.

- - -

Overview: Today's mood shows a continued attempt to maintain a positive outlook, and the news signal is once again positive.  However, social mood signal momentum shows a very strong pull against continued upward motion.  Markets are in a topping process, yet may, with a struggle, gain up to 1/2 % today.  Markets could be choppy today as forces pull in both directions, vying for dominance.

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with transition, or waiting for a "new chapter" to begin. Common news events associated with the current pattern are violent protests, terrorist activity, government intervention and themes of uncertainty, surprise, or disasters.  

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned positive within a larger downward trend.  The positive bounce has near run its course; resuming of the larger downtrend is near.  

Today's Market Outlook is Slightly Up / Mixed.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are moderately positive as of the time of this posting.  Social mood momentum indicates a high and increasing risk of trend change. 

Today’s social mood signal is +5.6 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Mood signal is  moderately positive at the time of this posting, but social mood momentum indicates a trend change is near.

  

 

 

Today’s news signal is +8.4 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is up.  

 

 

A new News Cycle; Markets Topping: Outlook 12 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P -5.71 (-0.34%) Markets climbed to less than 1 point above the zero line before turning down in a choppy fashion!

- - -

Overview: Today's mood shows an attempt to maintain positive momentum, but the news signal shows something new coming over the horizon that might put a damper on that.  Social mood signal momentum is increasingly negative showing a strong pull against continued upward motion.  Markets are in a topping process.  Markets may, with a struggle, make it slightly above the zero line today.  While the bias is still positive, markets could be choppy as forces pull in both directions, vying for dominance.

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with directed action, violence, and instability. Common news events associated with the current pattern are related to instability, terrorist activity, violent protests, fires and events reflecting themes of confusion or surprise.  Natural events associated with this pattern are earthquakes and violent storms.

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned positive within a larger downward trend.  The positive bounce has near run its course; resuming of the larger downtrend is near.  

Today's Market Outlook is Up / Mixed.  The social mood signal is moderately positive and the news signal is slightly negative as of the time of this posting.  Both social mood and news signal momentum indicate an increasing risk of trend change. 

Today’s social mood signal is +9.4 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Mood signal is  moderately positive at the time of this posting, but social mood momentum indicates a trend change is near.

  

 

 

Today’s news signal is -0.5 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is slightly down and indicates an imminent trend change.  

 

 

News and Markets turning Sour: Outlook 11 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P +5.09 (0.3%) Markets struggled entire session, down or sideways for much of it.  "Eek out" was a great description of today's action.

- - -

 

Overview: Today's mood and news signal show a sense of continued positive developments.  However, signal momentum indicates the upside is losing steam, and a reversal is near (not necessarily today).  Markets could eek out another 7-10 points today, but if so, it should be a struggle to hold such gains through day's end.

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with volatility and violence. Common news events associated with the current pattern are related to instability, terrorist activity, violent protests, fires and events reflecting themes of confusion or surprise.  Natural events associated with this pattern are earthquakes and violent storms.

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned up, but may be losing steam.  A reversal is near.  

Today's Market Outlook is Up, but with increased risk of trend reversal.  Both the social mood signal and news signal are moderately positive as of the time of this posting.  However, both social mood and news signal momentum indicate an increased risk of trend reversal.

Today’s social mood signal is +11.5 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Mood signal is  moderately positive at the time of this posting, but social mood momentum indicates a trend change is near.

  

 

 

Today’s news signal is +13.6 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is up, but news signal momentum indicates a trend change is near.  The huge divergence between news level and the stock market actuals indicate that extremely positive or extremely negative news could be very near.