after market update: actual S&P +5.88 (+0.35%); There was a focus on Washington, yet the markets climbed anyway. There was an upward breakout followed by a drop to near unchanged, ending with about half of the early gains. Markets were one directional, as forecasted, refusing to spend one moment negative today.
BTW, the reason for the uncertainty around direction of breakout on our end (see Today's Market Outlook below), was that the social mood to market model was in the midst of a polarity flip today. We could tell that the markets today would be directional, but not which direction.
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Overview: The mood shows movement in a specific direction; a focus on leadership. After two doji days, markets should be ready to make a definite move. Will U.S. government leadership shake things up today? Will it be a break down or break through?
Today's Market Outlook is Unchanged to Breakout (near -0.1% or breakout move in either direction). Both social mood and the news appear to be slowly breaking below support. A large market drop may be at hand. At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the news signals are slightly negative. There is therefore a bias in the negative direction. The mood, however, will support a one directional move in either direction.
BTW, the reason for the uncertainty around direction of breakout on our end (see Today's Market Outlook below), was that the social mood to market model was in the midst of a polarity flip today. We could tell that the markets today would be directional, but not which direction.
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Overview: The mood shows movement in a specific direction; a focus on leadership. After two doji days, markets should be ready to make a definite move. Will U.S. government leadership shake things up today? Will it be a break down or break through?
Today's Market Outlook is Unchanged to Breakout (near -0.1% or breakout move in either direction). Both social mood and the news appear to be slowly breaking below support. A large market drop may be at hand. At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the news signals are slightly negative. There is therefore a bias in the negative direction. The mood, however, will support a one directional move in either direction.
Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with leadership and directional movement. Common news themes associated with the current news mood pattern are uncertainty, confusion, and volatility. The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, terrorist activity, and geopolitical escalation. Diplomatic endeavors or negotiations are not likely to succeed at this time, as a mood of genuine cooperation is almost non-existent.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down; the bounce over the last month appears to be complete. However, confirmation of a continuation of the long term downtrend has not yet occurred.
Today’s social mood signal is -2.6 S&P points. Signal is at support, the next few days are critical to direction. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
Today’s news signal is -1.9 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
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