Pushing Hard, Going Nowhere: Outlook 24 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P -4.36 (-0.26%); It was quite a nowhere, meandering day for the markets.  As a heads up, social mood momentum showed a near term trend change is lurking.  Check tomorrow's outlook for indications of a possible short term rally. 
- - -

Overview:  Things are looking shaky, as the collective mood portrays a desperate push toward a goal.  Violence and other news themes showing instability and uncertainty have continued since the weekend.  Markets could be choppy as the new downward trend takes hold.

Today's Market Outlook is Slightly Down (-0.1% to -0.2%).  A stock market drop is in progress.  Social mood turned sharply down last week; the markets appear to be joining that trend.  At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the news signal are slightly negative. 

 

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggressiveness, and desperately pushing in a specific direction (or two or three specific directions).  Common news themes associated with the current news mood pattern are uncertainty, confusion, and volatility.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, terrorist activity, and geopolitical escalation.  Diplomatic endeavors or negotiations are not likely to succeed at this time, as a mood of genuine cooperation is almost non-existent.

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down; the bounce over the last month appears to be complete.  However, confirmation of a continuation of the long term downtrend has not yet occurred.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -3.9 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.

 (click to enlarge)

Today’s news signal is -1.4 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 

(click to enlarge)