Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with violence, self-sacrifice, and group ideology. This combination has an eerie ring to it, and conjures images of suicide bombers or jihad. Common news events associated with the current pattern are related to vulnerability or unpreparedness, and economic contraction. Also, events that portray a theme of destruction, disaster, or "us versus them."
end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:
Possible Syria strike prompts protest at US Embassy
US orders embassy workers out of Beirut ahead of possible Syria ...
US issues travel advisory in Lebanon and Turkey
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down. The stock market is 10% above what social mood will support. This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.
Today's Market Outlook is Up, but capable of sharp reversal. Both the social mood signal and news signal are positive as of the time of this posting; however, the social mood signal is at resistance. It would be difficult for it to go much higher than it currently is, at least in the short term. This means upside is limited, and a sharp reversal could occur at any time.
Today’s social mood signal is +7.9 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Also, the social mood signal is at resistance. It will be difficult for it to continue to get much higher in the near term.
after market update: actual S&P +0.08. Markets were up over 9 points at the highs, but ended near unchanged.
Today's Market Outlook is Up, but capable of sharp reversal. Both the social mood signal and news signal are positive as of the time of this posting; however, the social mood signal is at resistance. It would be difficult for it to go much higher than it currently is, at least in the short term. This means upside is limited, and a sharp reversal could occur at any time.
Today’s social mood signal is +7.9 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Also, the social mood signal is at resistance. It will be difficult for it to continue to get much higher in the near term.
after market update: actual S&P +0.08. Markets were up over 9 points at the highs, but ended near unchanged.
Today’s news signal is +4.3 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market. As of the time of this publication, the news signal is up. Yet, the huge divergence between news level and the stock market actuals indicate that extremely positive or extremely negative news could be very near.
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