Wednesday, September 11, 2013

A new News Cycle; Markets Topping: Outlook 12 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P -5.71 (-0.34%) Markets climbed to less than 1 point above the zero line before turning down in a choppy fashion!
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Overview: Today's mood shows an attempt to maintain positive momentum, but the news signal shows something new coming over the horizon that might put a damper on that.  Social mood signal momentum is increasingly negative showing a strong pull against continued upward motion.  Markets are in a topping process.  Markets may, with a struggle, make it slightly above the zero line today.  While the bias is still positive, markets could be choppy as forces pull in both directions, vying for dominance.

Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with directed action, violence, and instability. Common news events associated with the current pattern are related to instability, terrorist activity, violent protests, fires and events reflecting themes of confusion or surprise.  Natural events associated with this pattern are earthquakes and violent storms.

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned positive within a larger downward trend.  The positive bounce has near run its course; resuming of the larger downtrend is near.  

Today's Market Outlook is Up / Mixed.  The social mood signal is moderately positive and the news signal is slightly negative as of the time of this posting.  Both social mood and news signal momentum indicate an increasing risk of trend change. 

Today’s social mood signal is +9.4 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Mood signal is  moderately positive at the time of this posting, but social mood momentum indicates a trend change is near.
  

 
 
Today’s news signal is -0.5 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.  As of the time of this publication, the news signal is slightly down and indicates an imminent trend change.  
 

 

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