after market update: actual S&P +16.54. The market did rally 1%!
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Overview: Today's mood and news signals reflect a very large shift in social mood and the news, as well as signaling a huge rally. However, with such a large change, one might expect volatility, confusion, and choppiness, rather than the indicated 1-2% rally. We'll see what happens.
Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with directed violence, volatility, geopolitical escalation, and troop movement. Common news events associated with the current pattern are related to vulnerability and economic contraction. Natural events associated with this pattern are fires and volcanoes.
Longer term outlook: The social mood signal trend may be turning up; today's events and responses may be critical to the longer trend.
Today's Market Outlook is Up, but capable of sharp reversal. Both the social mood signal and news signal are strongly positive as of the time of this posting. However, because the social mood reflects volatility, a sharp reversal is possible.
Today’s social mood signal is +13.8 S&P points (+47.6 S&P points for the entire weekend's signal, Saturday thru today). Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
Today’s news signal is +17.3 S&P points (+19.5 S&P points for the entire weekend's signal, Saturday to today). News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market. As of the time of this publication, the news signal is up. Yet, the huge divergence between news level and the stock market actuals indicate that extremely positive or extremely negative news could be very near.
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