Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with rising passions. Common news events associated with the current pattern are terrorist activity, technology news, and extreme polarization (e.g. us vs. them, "good guys" vs. "bad guys). Also, events that portray a theme of violence, volatility, and the unexpected.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down. The stock market is 10% above what social mood will support. This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.
Today's Market Outlook is Rally and Reversal. Both the social mood signal and news signal were strongly positive over the weekend; but have backed off of that as of the time of this posting. Markets may have difficulty holding all of their weekend-relief gains for the entire session.
after market update: actual S&P +6.8. Wall Street up, but rally fizzles on support for Syria strike
Today's Market Outlook is Rally and Reversal. Both the social mood signal and news signal were strongly positive over the weekend; but have backed off of that as of the time of this posting. Markets may have difficulty holding all of their weekend-relief gains for the entire session.
after market update: actual S&P +6.8. Wall Street up, but rally fizzles on support for Syria strike
Today’s social mood signal is +8.0 S&P points (+24.0 S&P points for the entire weekend's signal, Saturday to today). Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Social mood is at resistance; it may have a difficult time going much higher in the near term.
Today’s news signal is +5.3 S&P points (+13.7 S&P points for the entire weekend's signal, Saturday to today). News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market. As of the time of this publication, the news signal is up. However, the huge divergence between news level and the stock market actuals indicate that extremely positive or extremely negative news could be very near.
No comments:
Post a Comment