Overview: Collective mood has turned down and the markets should be right behind it. The world is looking less stable and predictable. People are feeling less safe as this realization becomes more pronounced. Estimated stock market losses today near 1/2%.
after market update: actual S&P +7.2 (+0.42%); Markets were up near 1/2%. With tension building between dropping social mood and rising stock markets, tomorrow could be very interesting.
after market update: actual S&P +7.2 (+0.42%); Markets were up near 1/2%. With tension building between dropping social mood and rising stock markets, tomorrow could be very interesting.
Today's Market Outlook is Down. Both the social mood signal and news signal are negative as of the time of this posting. Sometimes markets have a slight lag at major turning points. However, upside should be limited, and any rallies should soon be met with selling pressure.
Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with directed action or violence and rising seriousness, not surprising after yesterday's events. Common news events associated with the current pattern are geopolitical escalation, terrorist activity, and disasters, the same as yesterday. Diplomacy efforts may appear less and less likely to be successful.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend had turned positive within a larger downward trend. The positive bounce may be complete; resuming of the larger downtrend is at hand.
Today’s social mood signal is -7.6 S&P points (click on chart to enlarge).
Today’s news signal is -4.1 S&P points (click on chart to enlarge). News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market. As of the time of this publication, the news signal is down.
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