after market update: actual S&P -6.92 (-0.41%); Markets started with a big drop and spent the rest of the session choppy and sideways. The Nasdaq was positive for part of the session, but the DOW and S&P stayed negative. For today, the news weighed more heavily than the mood. Yet, the "gotta keep pushing, gotta stay hopeful" mood likely prevented the markets from falling more than they did.
If both the mood and the news go south over the weekend, that could spell big trouble next week.
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Overview: Although it looks unlikely at this point that the government will be able to work things out in time to avoid either a shutdown or default, people in general don't seem to be excessively worried about it right now. Social mood reflects desperate pushing towards competing goals. This, combined with the high uncertainty in the news, could leave markets rallying one minute only to fall in the next.
Today's Market Outlook is Mixed to Up (-0.1% to +0.7%). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is positive, yet the signal from the news is slightly negative. Signal momentum indicates a choppy market is likely today as competing forces vie for control. Watch for news events to impinge on any rallies that may develop.
If both the mood and the news go south over the weekend, that could spell big trouble next week.
- - -
Overview: Although it looks unlikely at this point that the government will be able to work things out in time to avoid either a shutdown or default, people in general don't seem to be excessively worried about it right now. Social mood reflects desperate pushing towards competing goals. This, combined with the high uncertainty in the news, could leave markets rallying one minute only to fall in the next.
Today's Market Outlook is Mixed to Up (-0.1% to +0.7%). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is positive, yet the signal from the news is slightly negative. Signal momentum indicates a choppy market is likely today as competing forces vie for control. Watch for news events to impinge on any rallies that may develop.
Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with desperately pushing toward a goal (and competing with others pushing toward other goals). Common news themes associated with the current news mood pattern are uncertainty, confusion, and volatility. The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down; the bounce over the last month appears to be complete. However, confirmation of a continuation of the long term downtrend has not yet occurred.
Today’s social mood signal is +13.2 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Signal is at support, the next few days are critical to direction.
Today’s news signal is -0.2 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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