Near term outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with violence, self-sacrifice, and group ideology. This combination has an eerie ring to it, and conjures images of suicide bombers or jihad. Common news events associated with the current pattern are geopolitical escalation, religious disagreements, and volcanoes. Also, events that portray a theme of destruction, especially natural disasters.
end of day update-- some top news stories with today's themes:
Iran Plots Revenge, US Says
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down. The stock market is 11% above what social mood will support. This divergence should be approaching resolution over the next few months.
Today's Market Outlook is Slightly Down. Both the social mood signal and news signal are slightly negative as of the time of this posting.
after market update: actual S&P +2.00.
Today’s social mood signal is -1.6 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. The mood is somewhat more serious than yesterday. Also, the social mood signal is at resistance. It will be difficult for it to continue to get much higher in the near term.
Today's Market Outlook is Slightly Down. Both the social mood signal and news signal are slightly negative as of the time of this posting.
after market update: actual S&P +2.00.
Today’s social mood signal is -1.6 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. The mood is somewhat more serious than yesterday. Also, the social mood signal is at resistance. It will be difficult for it to continue to get much higher in the near term.
Today’s news signal is -2.2 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market. As of the time of this publication, the news signal is down. Also, the huge divergence between news level and the stock market actuals indicate that extremely positive or extremely negative news could be very near.
No comments:
Post a Comment