U.S. Market & Mood July 6-10, 2015

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According to social mood projections, Monday should be the most solidly bearish day for the stock market, and the middle of the week, the most clearly bullish or optimistic.  A major shift in the market pattern should take place near the end of the week at the same time that social mood shows increased instability of one type or another is likely to be a focal point of the news.  Spatial analysis shows that the most disruptive events are likely to occur outside of the United States.  Regardless, they should to get America's attention.

Global Disasters not yet finished

Recap: the MoodCompass team reported a disaster indicator peaking near August 1-8 that would impact the United States, but be more destructive outside the U.S. (see last few posts). It continues to play out.

Tropical storm Iselle will hopefully turn out to pack less of a punch to Hawaii than feared.  However, the MoodCompass disaster indicator says there is an even higher likelihood globally for natural disasters or major global changes tomorrow (8 Aug) than there were today.  The approximately 1 week period of an anticipated cluster of disasters began to show on 2 August with toxic water in Ohio, a potentially deadly inconvenience.  The following day, a major earthquake in China toppled thousands of homes and killed 600 people.  Today, 7 Aug, a rare hurricane landfall in Hawaii may cause some damages, but hopefully they will be minimal.  Tomorrow and into early next week, this global disaster wave should continue to play itself out.  Best case, it will soon run out of steam and fade away.  All that is clear today, is that it isn't over yet.

Global Cluster of Disaster-type Events Underway

As mentioned in previous posts, a global cluster of disaster-type events has begun, and it may be another week before this disaster wave peaks (current data shows it is not even near peak yet).  While the most destructive events should be located outside the United States, the U.S. will not be immune.

Saturday kicked it off with Ohio's forth largest city suddenly finding itself waterless due to toxins found in the drinking water. This has resulted in the governor declaring a state of emergency.  See news story.

On Sunday, over 12,000 homes were destroyed in China due to a large earthquake.  The current death toll is near 400.  See story.

There should be another week or possibly more filled with headlines of death, destruction, disease, and/or toxicity.  This is the measureable shift in consciousness we have already made in collectively turning away from a focus on global violence, aggression, and expansion.  It just hasn't yet all shown up in the news.  Give it a week or two.  We will have a new global focus, new types of collective troubles to worry about.  Perhaps it doesn't have to be this way, but for now, this is what gets our collective attention, and allows us to globally shift gears.



For more info on The MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

Update, 1st Week of August Event, 2014

On 24 July, we announced a disaster or tragic event of high impact to the United States was near and most likely to occur between August 1-8, 2014.  Also, that more information would be available in the days ahead as to the type of event that was anticipated.

The shift in social mood points to a collective desire to shift *away* from global violence as people become concerned with new types of threats.  Some of these new types of concerns, such as disease and economic issues have already begun to surface as Ebola makes headlines and market volatility spikes.  Environmental tragedies and natural events that relate to water or fluid such as severe storms, flooding, a tsunami, or volcanic eruptions (lava) may also be a part of this cluster.

At this time, we can say the following about likely events of this period:
1) The bulk of the destructive components of these events should be international (non-U.S.) in origin.
2) There could be a significant economic component or impact to the U.S.
3) The event or series of events should dominate U.S. conversation and air-wave time for days if not weeks.

For more info on The MoodCompass Project, see http://moodcompass.com.

U.S Disaster, 1st Week of August, 2014

A U.S. disaster signal has been detected by the MoodCompass Project team after many months of little to no U.S. disaster activity.  It should be of significant emotional impact to most people within the U.S., and will most likely include loss of life greater than seen in average news stories; economic losses are also likely.

We will wait a few more days before presenting further information about the likely type of disaster while we sift through our data, and get additional information.

A disaster signal is generated when the relationship between U.S. social focus (social mood measured by top Google Hot Trends) and social mood factors found in the top U.S. news stories meets certain criteria.  You can see in the chart below, that the U.S. disaster mood factor today spiked up from the low range area it normally hovers in.  This means that there is a significant risk of a U.S. disaster in the near future, most likely between 7 and 14 days from now, or August 1 - 8.

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The second chart (below), is a snap shot of the intensity of these factors.  The greatest specific threat showing up as of today is mass violence or terrorism.  However, we will be getting more information in the next few days.

 

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War, not diplomacy: Outlook 7 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates a trend toward war and away from diplomacy.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (most likely before 13 March).  This may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It may well be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  Market direction for today is unclear.

Near Term: Mood signals have shown a sharp drop while markets remain at or near record highs (see Google trends chart below).  Since social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes, a sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: +3.7 from Google Hot Trends, -0.5 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

U.S. Panic as soon as tomorrow: Outlook 5 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates rising risk of panic.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (most likely between 6-13 March).  This may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It may well be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  Market direction for today is unclear.

Near Term: Mood signals have shown a sharp drop while markets remain at or near record highs (see Google trends chart below).  Since social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes, a sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: +0.6 from Google Hot Trends, +3.6 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Outlook 4 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates rising risk aversion.  There is an extreme risk of a major natural disaster outside the U.S.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (within a few days away).  This may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It could be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  A sell-off in the markets is likely.

Near Term: Mood signals have not rallied to record highs along with the markets (see Google trends chart below). and are breaking down below support.  A sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: -5.6 from Google Hot Trends, -3.5 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Escalating Violence and Volatility: Outlook 3 March '14

Overview:  Collective mood indicates high risk of violence and geopolitical escalation.  A major crisis directly impacting the U.S. people and government is immanent (within a few days away).  It may be a new development in the Ukrainian crisis or something else.  It could be the greatest crisis faced by the U.S. in years.  Markets are extremely overbought relative to daily social mood signals.  A sharp sell-off in the markets is likely.

Near Term: Mood signals have not rallied to record highs along with the markets (see Google trends chart below). and are breaking down below support.  A sharp drop in the near term is likely.

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

Today's Signals: -19.7 from Google Hot Trends, -17.4 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

World in Crisis; U.S Government and People not immune

Update 2 March 2014: This was posted hours *before* the Ukraine crisis occurred.
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This is a BIG ONE, and it is imminent!

 

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The above chart shows that a U.S. disaster is imminent that could be on the scale of Boston Marathon or Hurricane Sandy.  The Arapahoe High School shooting, and the recent cluster of ice storms were just a warm up; they did not sufficiently resolve the “disaster pressure.” 

 

Also, the usual indicators of scale (see chart below) do not show large scale damages for any of the normally anticipated disaster types.  Because of this, we am referring to the event as a major “crisis.”

 

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 The type of crisis from the social mood pattern is NE.  The most likely types of events that show up with type NE are an economic disaster, an attack from another geopolitical entity, or if a natural disaster, a winter storm.  It’s also associated with anxiety and risk aversion.

 This must be the beginning of the big March/April crisis we have been watching for.  Whatever it is, we will all know shortly.

No Imminent U.S. Disasters - Pax did it

Since the end of January, a U.S. disaster or tragedy was waiting to happen (see post).  Although the latest big ice storm Pax fit the description of the type of disaster predicted by the social mood patterns, as described in the earlier post, it was unclear whether it would create sufficient "release" of "disaster pressure" (for lack of better words to describe it), or whether something else was right around the corner.  Today we can issue an all clear for imminent major U.S. tragic events.

Social mood data gave U.S. natural disaster fatality estimates of 18 though February 14, and 27 as of February 14.  As of 14 February, Pax death toll was estimated at 25.  There were record flight cancellations, a 100 car pile up in Pennsylvania, and economic losses from closures of shops, transportation, etc.  This article (Winter storm leaves 25 dead in US East Coast, more than 2100 flights cancelled) gives further details.  The Pax event fulfilled the scale of disaster supported by collective mood.

Below is the latest chart of the differential between social mood and mood themes found in the news.  The "orange line" referred to in the earlier post has been added to the chart after Pax.  This signifies the required release has occurred.

While disasters or tragic events can occur anywhere at anytime, there are no signals from collective mood for any imminent major tragic events within the United States.

 

Party's about Over: Outlook 14 Feb '14

after market update: actual S&P +8.81  Markets are seriously overbought.  Will the rally continue much longer?  Watch for the update Monday near 12am ET.

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Overview:  Collective mood indicates the ending of a chapter, and a struggle to hold onto optimism that looks about to be lost.  Mood signals for the day indicate a sell off in the markets is likely.  We've been watching for a high impact U.S. disaster or tragic event since late January.  Will the current ice storm have enough impact to get us out of this disaster zone, or will pressure continue to build only to erupt in something bigger?  We will know in a few days.

Near Term: While markets have rallied quite a bit in the past few days, social mood signals have been hovering in the 1740-1760 area (see Google trends chart below).  The mood signal is now just below support which may indicate an imminent break down.   

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -11.7 from Google Hot Trends, -1.4 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

Is Pax the Big U.S. Disaster?

The graph below shows the scale of disaster that is likely to occur if the anticipated disaster or tragedy occurs on 14 February or later (under that is the graph for before 14 February).  Will storm Pax claim another 10 or even more lives in the next day or two, or will pressure continue to build, creating an even larger disaster in another few weeks?  That is the current question being asked as the current social mood data is compared with previous disasters.

 

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Since late January, after Storm Leon, a United States disaster has been "waiting" to happen.  The chart below shows the divergence between U.S. collective mood and mood themes in top U.S. news stories since July 2012.  Recently, there has been an amazing repeating occurrence of severe ice storms the next two times the line in this chart got into the same area as Leon.  Nika was bad, but Pax looks like it could be worst of all.

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Storm Nika did not relieve the "pressure" that would have been released if that was the disaster.   After the Boston Marathon bombing, the Navy Yard shooting of a few months ago, and even the Arapahoe High School shooting, there is a noticeable drop in the chart marked by an orange line.  This has not yet occurred in this cluster.

The most likely type of event expected, as indicated by current collective mood patterns is type NE.  This would probably be an economic event, or a Winter Storm if a natural event is the disaster.  Looking at the pattern occurring for this entire cluster, the most likely event would be type NE and SW.  This would likely be an international economic event that impacts the United States, a geopolitical escalation that the U.S. feels victimized by (e.g. act of war or internationally sponsored terrorist attack), or, if a natural event, a Winter Storm with heavy precipitation and winds.

Is Pax finally going to be the event that relieves this building pressure?  It certainly fits the type, and some are saying that Pax may be one for the history books, but our suspicions are that something else is still to come.  Yet, Pax could be the big disaster that will get rid of this growing monster of potential.  The only way to know for sure will be after the fact.  If a sharp drop shows up in the chart (i.e. the orange "release" lines) then we will know it was the big one.  Whatever shows up as the disaster or tragic event when it does appear, will impact us all on some level.  It will be something everyone talks about for days.
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Update 2/14/14: Pax death toll is estimated at 25.  There were record flight cancellations, a 100 car pile up in Pennsylvania, and economic losses from closures of shops, transportation, etc.
Winter storm leaves 25 dead in US East Coast, more than 2100 flights cancelled.  Fatality estimates from social mood data (see charts at top) was 18 through February 14, and 27 if the event after February 14.  Something much bigger than Pax is coming if it was not "bad enough" to relieve the disaster pressure.  It fit the estimate, so perhaps this might be it.   In the next day or two we should know.

Next U.S. Tragedy Days Away

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The United States is about to experience another major tragedy.  This one should be more impactful to the average American than the Arapahoe High School shooting was.  Depending on where the current upswing in the above chart peaks, this next event should be more impactful than the Navy Yard shooting of a few months ago, and possibly near the subjective impact of the Boston Marathon event of last year.

 

Without getting into the details of the chart this time around, the event should occur within a day or two of the next peak in the above chart.  It may be a mass violence event, but could be some other type of tragedy that allows people to emotionally connect with what is happening in the news.

2014 Global and U.S. Overview

Projecting forward the cycles of collective mood and perception for 2014 gives us the following likely scenarios (at the end of this post is a link to download more complete info).

Global:

    March/April –Fuel Prices Soar on Iranian Nuke issue

    May/June –Uncertain Response Inflames Israel

    August –Iran Deal Proposed (Hillary-style)

    September –CPI Remains High, Markets Choppy

    October –Incumbents Worried

United States Government:

    Primary themes of bickering, inaction, indecision, and confusion

    March/April - U.S. government in crisis mode

2014 and You -- see the presentation pdf

Feel free to download your copy of the MoodCompass team's overview of 2014 here.
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Update 16 January '14 A Bill Stokes Debate, and Doubt, on Iran Deal

Rising Global Instability: Outlook 19 December '13

after market update: actual S&P -1.05 (-0.1%). With rising uncertainty, markets were little changed today.  Markets continue to be seriously overbought relative to social mood.  Today's tragic incident in London (Apollo Theatre ceiling collapses in London) indicates the disaster/tragedy configuration is still in play on a global scale.  We are no longer looking for a specifically U.S. disaster/tragedy.  The incidents at Arapahoe High School and Reno Hospital appear to have been sufficient to move out of the danger zone for now.

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Overview: The social mood pattern for today reflects aggression and rising uncertainty.  Themes in the news reflect instability and uncertainty.  Market signals are up, however, markets are highly overbought relative to social mood so anything can happen.  We had expected to remove the U.S. disaster/tragedy watch today, but will wait at least until tomorrow as the configuration is not clearly resolved.  (see More Info on Next U.S. Tragedy).

Today's Market Outlook is nearly unchanged to moderately up (+0,1% to +0.3%).  Both the social mood signal and the signal from themes in the news are up.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Near term mood outlook:  aggression and rising uncertainty.  Themes in the news reflect destruction, deterioration, or disaster.  The combined pattern of news and social mood reflects global aggression, violence, and an elevated risk for protests and terrorist activity.  

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is indicating a serious downturn in social mood that is likely to be followed by the markets. 

 

Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process for many months.  This topping process appears to be in its final stages.  A sharp market drop of more than 15% indicated by long term mood and market charts, may be in its early stages.

 

Today’s social mood signal is +4.6 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes often precede market trend changes.

 

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Today’s news signal is +1.8 S&P points as of the time of this posting.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.

The Next American Tragedy... A Few Days Away?

America's next big tragedy may be only a few days away.  This has been detected by observing changes in social mood, and in the divergence between themes in the news and how people collectively are feeling.  For more details on how this is detected, see Disasters: Society's Shadow.  For more details on where America is now, and this particular alert, keep reading.

The chart below is one of the ways we watch the changes in social mood relative to the news.  A pattern emerged prior to every major tragic U.S. event since July 2012.  You will see one of the black dots, labeled Karma Point, followed by a red dot, labeled Tragic Event or Disaster.   The exception to this is that immediately following the very impactful Boston Marathon event and out through September of this year, there was a disruption in the pattern.

If the previous pattern has returned, as appears from the Navy Yard shooting in September, then America is days away from its next big tragedy.  We will be able to discover within a few days, if this is true, or if there is some unidentified new pattern (or no pattern) in play.  Another interesting feature that has been noticed in the last few disaster clusters is a possible relationship between stormy weather and the immediately following tragic events. 

In April 2013, immediately preceding the Boston Marathon event, was a disruptive and damaging storm, and this line on the graph peaked.

In September 2013, immediately preceding the Navy Yard Shooting, there was a major flooding event in Western Colorado.

Now, in December 2013, after the prerequisite black dot on the graph (Karma Point), there are disruptive and damaging ice storms.  The big question is, does this line now peak, with a major U.S. tragedy immediately afterwards?  We will know in a few days.


 

Aggressive Surge Impacting Shutdown Talks: Preliminary Outlook for Monday

Over the weekend, the mood factor associated with aggressively pursuing group agendas surged in U.S. collective mood (see chart below).  It has not been this high all year.  At the same time, the capacity to understand a different point of view or pursue diplomatic negotiations is near the low for the year.  There is almost no chance of any resolution on the government shutdown anytime soon, with one possible exception.

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The only way for some type of budge in the current impasse would be for group identity to shift.  "My group" would have to include both parties.  In other words, instead of Tea Party or Democrat or anti-Obama, etc.  the majority would need to see "My group" as a larger whole, for instance, "American."  This may sound absurdly simple, but if it was that easy we would be there now.  The fastest way to get this type of shift would be to have an emergency or disaster that comes from "out there" affecting all or most Americans in some way.  This could be a human caused emergency such as a terrorist attack, a market crash, or even a natural disaster of some type.  It will be interesting if such an emergency shows up in the nick of time to create this cohesion and unity out of the chaos.  Otherwise, an agreement might have to wait until the social mood is more conducive to negotiations on its own.  It will get there at some point.

Preliminary Market Outlook: Moderately to Sharply Down
Monday's official outlook won't be released for another four hours, but here's what we got at this moment (see chart).  Social mood is near breaking down below support again.  Markets could be in for quite a tumble if nothing improves between now and Monday morning.

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.

Shutdown Day 2-- Engaging the Enemy: Outlook 2 Oct '13

after market update: actual S&P -1.13 (-0.1%); Markets started down about 3/4%, then spent the rest of the session in a choppy climb to almost unchanged. 

News story that captured today's engaging the enemy theme almost exactly:  Progress? Obama, congressional leaders to talk on shutdown.
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Overview:  A U.S. government shutdown is in day 2, and there is likely to be a pickup in activity or at least the appearance of being busy (whether or not there are tangible results).  Social mood reflects activity and aggression.  The mood depicted by themes in the news is extreme polarization, lines in the sand, and us versus them.  Markets may want to use today's excess energy to push ahead, but the overall uncertainty in the news could keep a damper on things.

Today's Market Outlook is Down and Volatile (-0.3% to +0.3%).  At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is mildly positive, and the signal from the news is slightly negative.   The influence of the slightly positive (energized) social mood today would be that any news that is even slightly positive could lead to a large lift in the markets.  The primary influence on today's outlook is what is presented in the paragraphs below on near term mood outlook and near term market outlook.
 

Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with activity, aggression, and violence.  Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are polarization, destruction, disasters, and government intervention.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.

 

Near term market outlook: Social mood (and markets) may be in process of completing a near term bounce.  When this bounce is complete, mood (and markets) may once again drop down to test support. 

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down, but not definitively.  Confirmation of a continuation of the long term downtrend has not yet occurred. 

 

Today’s social mood signal is +5.7 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Signal is near support, the next few days are critical to direction. 

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Today’s news signal is -2.1 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Today's expected stock market range is primarily based on the mood pattern itself.  The calculated range from signals would be -2.1 S&P points (news signal) to +5.7 S&P points (social mood signal) or -0.1% to +0.3%.  As a polarity flip is in progress with social mood, the range is given as -0.3% to +0.3%.

Trying to Ignore the Inevitable: Outlook 30 Sept '13

after market update: actual S&P -10.2 (-0.6%); Markets started down about 1%, then climbed to near unchanged and then back down in a choppy fashion.  Denial of the inevitable, and hope that there will be a last minute deal kept markets from falling further than they did.

News story that captured today's denial of irrationality theme almost exactly:  The Republicans Fighting Obamacare Aren't Crazy
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Overview:  A U.S. government shutdown appears inevitable at this point, and the strongest negative influence is coming from the high uncertainty in the news.  Social mood reflects a desperate pushing to disprove weakness or vulnerability, while the themes in the news reflect an active denial of appearing irrational or delusional.  Markets could be confused and choppy, but most likely down.

Today's Market Outlook is Sharply Down to Near Unchanged (-0.2% to -0.8%).  At the time of this posting, the social mood signal from over the weekend is slightly negative, and the signal from the news is strongly negative.  Signal momentum indicates a choppy and confused market is possible today; although most likely down.  The markets will likely stick closer to the news signal for the next few days.

 

Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with an agenda of disproving weakness or vulnerability.  Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are uncertainty, confusion, volatility, and trying to deny or disprove irrationality.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.

 

Near term market outlook: The social mood curve may be turning up.  If so, a large market bounce could be due within a few days (would that also mean a U.S. government deal could be reached this week?).

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down, but not definitively.  Confirmation of a continuation of the long term downtrend has not yet occurred.

 

Today’s social mood signal is -12.1 S&P points (the entire weekend signal, Saturday thru Monday, is -3.1 S&P points).  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Signal is near support, the next few days are critical to direction. 

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Today’s news signal is +3.5  S&P points (entire weekend signal, Saturday through today, is -13.2 S&P points).  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Today's expected stock market range is calculated as -3.1 S&P points (weekend social mood signal) or -13.2 S&P points (weekend news signal)  -0.2% to -0.8%.