after market update: actual S&P -1.13 (-0.1%); Markets started down about 3/4%, then spent the rest of the session in a choppy climb to almost unchanged.
News story that captured today's engaging the enemy theme almost exactly: Progress? Obama, congressional leaders to talk on shutdown.
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 2, and there is likely to be a pickup in activity or at least the appearance of being busy (whether or not there are tangible results). Social mood reflects activity and aggression. The mood depicted by themes in the news is extreme polarization, lines in the sand, and us versus them. Markets may want to use today's excess energy to push ahead, but the overall uncertainty in the news could keep a damper on things.
Today's Market Outlook is Down and Volatile (-0.3% to +0.3%). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is mildly positive, and the signal from the news is slightly negative. The influence of the slightly positive (energized) social mood today would be that any news that is even slightly positive could lead to a large lift in the markets. The primary influence on today's outlook is what is presented in the paragraphs below on near term mood outlook and near term market outlook.
News story that captured today's engaging the enemy theme almost exactly: Progress? Obama, congressional leaders to talk on shutdown.
- - -
Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 2, and there is likely to be a pickup in activity or at least the appearance of being busy (whether or not there are tangible results). Social mood reflects activity and aggression. The mood depicted by themes in the news is extreme polarization, lines in the sand, and us versus them. Markets may want to use today's excess energy to push ahead, but the overall uncertainty in the news could keep a damper on things.
Today's Market Outlook is Down and Volatile (-0.3% to +0.3%). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is mildly positive, and the signal from the news is slightly negative. The influence of the slightly positive (energized) social mood today would be that any news that is even slightly positive could lead to a large lift in the markets. The primary influence on today's outlook is what is presented in the paragraphs below on near term mood outlook and near term market outlook.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with activity, aggression, and violence. Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are polarization, destruction, disasters, and government intervention. The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.
Near term market outlook: Social mood (and markets) may be in process of completing a near term bounce. When this bounce is complete, mood (and markets) may once again drop down to test support.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down, but not definitively. Confirmation of a continuation of the long term downtrend has not yet occurred.
Today’s social mood signal is +5.7 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Signal is near support, the next few days are critical to direction.
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Today’s news signal is -2.1 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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Today's expected stock market range is primarily based on the mood pattern itself. The calculated range from signals would be -2.1 S&P points (news signal) to +5.7 S&P points (social mood signal) or -0.1% to +0.3%. As a polarity flip is in progress with social mood, the range is given as -0.3% to +0.3%.
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