after market update: actual S&P +11.8 (+0.7%); Markets climbed steadily today, even with no apparent progress on the shutdown. However, unless social mood rises from its current position, a 4% drop in the S&P in the next few days is the most likely outcome. Why that happens, whether from the shutdown or some other named reason, is yet to be seen.
End of day update: News story reflecting today's social mood of angry and exasperated-- With No New Plan, Boehner Makes Angry Plea on Shutdown
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 4, and people are getting angry and exasperated. Social mood reflects both aggression and desperation. The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, confusion, and attempting to avoid appearing irrational or delusional. Markets are expected to drop about 4% in the next few days. This may or may not occur today.
Today's Market Outlook is Near unchanged to down sharply (0% to -0.4% or greater). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is negative, and the signal from the news is barely negative. Markets are expected to drop about 4% in the next few days. This may or may not occur today. A major influence on today's outlook is the chart below "today's social mood signal."
End of day update: News story reflecting today's social mood of angry and exasperated-- With No New Plan, Boehner Makes Angry Plea on Shutdown
- - -
Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 4, and people are getting angry and exasperated. Social mood reflects both aggression and desperation. The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, confusion, and attempting to avoid appearing irrational or delusional. Markets are expected to drop about 4% in the next few days. This may or may not occur today.
Today's Market Outlook is Near unchanged to down sharply (0% to -0.4% or greater). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is negative, and the signal from the news is barely negative. Markets are expected to drop about 4% in the next few days. This may or may not occur today. A major influence on today's outlook is the chart below "today's social mood signal."
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggression and desperation. Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are uncertainty, confusion, and attempts to avoid appearing irrational or delusional. The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has broken below support. Next support is a 4% drop. A sharp drop of up to 4% is expected in the next few days. It may or may not happen today.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down. As long as it stays at or below its current level, it can be assumed that the trend is down.
Today’s social mood signal is -6.0 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Signal has broken below support. Next support is a 4% drop. A sharp drop of up to 4% could happen at any time now.
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Today’s news signal is -0.4 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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Today's expected stock market range is calculated from -0.4 S&P points (news signal) to -6.0 S&P points (social mood signal), or-0% to -0.4%. It is also based on technical analysis of the social mood signal over the past three months.
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