after market update: actual S&P +13.5 (+0.8%) ; We were expecting a large bounce within a few days (see near term market outlook below), but did not see it coming today.
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in progress, but not much is likely to change today. With social mood reflecting a desperate push to disprove weakness or vulnerability, and themes in the news showing an active denial of appearing irrational or delusional, it's difficult to imagine a deal being made at this time. Markets could be confused and choppy, but by the end of the day, are more likely than not to be down.
Today's Market Outlook is Slightly Down (-0.1% to -0.3%). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is slightly negative, and the signal from the news is moderately negative. Signal momentum indicates a choppy market is possible today; it may start in one direction, only to reverse later in the session.
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in progress, but not much is likely to change today. With social mood reflecting a desperate push to disprove weakness or vulnerability, and themes in the news showing an active denial of appearing irrational or delusional, it's difficult to imagine a deal being made at this time. Markets could be confused and choppy, but by the end of the day, are more likely than not to be down.
Today's Market Outlook is Slightly Down (-0.1% to -0.3%). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is slightly negative, and the signal from the news is moderately negative. Signal momentum indicates a choppy market is possible today; it may start in one direction, only to reverse later in the session.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with an agenda of disproving weakness or vulnerability. Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are uncertainty, confusion, volatility, and trying to deny or disprove irrationality. The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.
Near term market outlook: The social mood curve may be turning up. If so, a large market bounce could be due within a few days (would that also mean a U.S. government deal could be reached this week?).
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down, but not definitively. Confirmation of a continuation of the long term downtrend has not yet occurred.
Today’s social mood signal is -2.3 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Signal is near support, the next few days are critical to direction.
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Today’s news signal is -4.9 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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Today's expected stock market range is calculated as -2.3 S&P points (social mood signal) to -4.9 S&P points (news signal) or -0.1% to -0.3%.
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