after market update: actual S&P -8.3 (-0.47%); As suspected, the turning process was still in progress today causing the mood and market opposition to continue. However, there's a good chance that by tomorrow social mood and the markets will be back in sync.
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Overview: Collective mood portrays either a sense of irrational exuberance or manic destructiveness (or both). Today's potentially large market moves could bring resolution to the mood/market divergence that has been observed over the past week or so.
Today's Market Outlook is Up (+1.0% to +1.2%) Both social mood and news signals are strongly positive today, but the trend change is still in process. This may continue to result in inverted model results where mood is opposing the markets. If so, today could end up being a strong down move. However, it turns out, a large directional move today should resolve the mood/market divergence that has been showing up over the past week or so.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with either a desperate pushing or utter exhaustion. The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and geopolitical escalation.
Near term market outlook: Social mood is at resistance; markets are at a turning point. If mood and markets do not turn down immediately, a strong positive surge into a new range could be at hand.
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend is down. When the current bounce is over, markets should be turning down and joining mood in a period of decline.
Today’s social mood signal is +19.3 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
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Today’s news signal is +17.2 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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