after market update: actual S&P +0.96 (+0.06%); Markets did pause today (as suggested in near term market outlook below). There was more posturing and some movement in the shutdown drama, but with uncertain outcome at this point.
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 9, and participants are continuing to posture from an aggressive position, trying not to look too unreasonable or irrational. Social mood reflects a desperate aggressiveness. The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, and an effort not to be seen as irrational or delusional. The stock market appears to be heading toward the 1630 support line, but today markets are likely to be choppy and uncertain, making little progress in any direction.
(click to enlarge)
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 9, and participants are continuing to posture from an aggressive position, trying not to look too unreasonable or irrational. Social mood reflects a desperate aggressiveness. The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, and an effort not to be seen as irrational or delusional. The stock market appears to be heading toward the 1630 support line, but today markets are likely to be choppy and uncertain, making little progress in any direction.
Today's Market Outlook is Unchanged to slightly down (0% to -0.2%). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is slightly negative, and the signal from the news is barely positive.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with desperate aggressiveness. Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are uncertainty, protests, and an effort not to be seen as irrational or delusional. The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity. The news chart (below) shows a good chance of some really bad news just ahead.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is nearing its next level of support. Markets should be soon ready to test another level on the way down, but may first pause for a moment. The social mood signal has not yet gone below 1650 S&P. Will it hold here?
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down. The overall market trend should be down.
Today’s social mood signal is -2.7 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
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Today’s news signal is +0.6 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market. Is there some really bad news ahead?
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Model inputs and outputs: Today's expected stock market range is from the Market Mood Model outputs of 0.6 S&P points (news signal) to -2.7 S&P points (social mood signal), or 0% to -0.2%.
MoodCompass Social Mood score input: NE 18.9 SW 34.7 SE 25.6 NW 20.9
MoodCompass News score input: NE 24.1 SW 23.0 SE 29.3 NW 23.6
Social Mood scores from these Google Hot Trends: Kris Jerner, MLB, new 100 dollar bill, Tom Hanks, Beyond Two Souls
News scores from U.S. news stories on: Shutdown Denies Death and Burial Benefits to Families of 4 Dead Soldiers, As debt-limit deadline nears, investors show growing concern about a US default, Obama to Pick Yellen as Leader of Fed, Officials Say, Detective arrested in NYC motorcycle-SUV melee, Democratic lawmakers among 200 arrested at immigration rally
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