after market update: actual S&P +9.99 (+0.57%); A strange mix showed up today as this major turning process continued to play out. Even with the markets ending up over 1/2%, the VIX (i.e. the fear index) ended up even more than that. The markets are currently running inverted to the social mood signal. That is expected to right itself when this turning process is complete.
An interesting headline on the VIX today: VIX Trader Pays $6.7 Million Betting Fear Gauge May Double
- - -
Overview: Social mood shows a combination of aggression and increasing uncertainty. Today's news is likely to be considered somewhat negative. Markets remain at a major turning point.
Today's Market Outlook is Down (-0.2% to -0.3%). Both social mood and news signals are negative today, but the trend change is still in process. This may create choppy or confused markets.
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories. Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model. The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.
An interesting headline on the VIX today: VIX Trader Pays $6.7 Million Betting Fear Gauge May Double
- - -
Overview: Social mood shows a combination of aggression and increasing uncertainty. Today's news is likely to be considered somewhat negative. Markets remain at a major turning point.
Today's Market Outlook is Down (-0.2% to -0.3%). Both social mood and news signals are negative today, but the trend change is still in process. This may create choppy or confused markets.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggression with increasing uncertainty combined with "bad news." The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and geopolitical escalation.
Near term market outlook: Social mood is at resistance; markets are at a turning point. If mood and markets do not turn down immediately, a strong positive surge into a new range could be at hand.
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend is down. When the current bounce is over, markets should be turning down and joining mood in a period of decline.
Today’s social mood signal is -4.6 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
(click to enlarge)
Today’s news signal is -2.8 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
(click to enlarge)
No comments:
Post a Comment