after market update: actual S&P -14.3 (-0.85%); Markets started down almost 1%, climbed up to the top of our expected range (-0.3%), then dropped back down toward the lows. The VIX, the so called "fear index," was even more reflective of the sharp deterioration in social mood over the weekend as it surged approximately 14% today.
End of day update: News story reflecting today's social mood of aggressive and desperate-- White House, Senate Democrats step up pressure to raise federal debt ceiling
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 7. Social mood reflects both aggression and desperation. The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, confusion, and perceptions of chaos. Markets are expected to drop up to 4% in the next few days. This may or may not all occur today. A mood trend change is in progress; this could signify that an end to the shutdown is only a few days away, or that hopes are at least about to rise.
Today's Market Outlook is Down to down sharply (-0.3% to -1.9%). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is sharply negative, and the signal from the news is moderately negative. Markets are expected to drop up to 4% in the next few days. This may or may not all occur today.
End of day update: News story reflecting today's social mood of aggressive and desperate-- White House, Senate Democrats step up pressure to raise federal debt ceiling
(click to enlarge)
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 7. Social mood reflects both aggression and desperation. The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, confusion, and perceptions of chaos. Markets are expected to drop up to 4% in the next few days. This may or may not all occur today. A mood trend change is in progress; this could signify that an end to the shutdown is only a few days away, or that hopes are at least about to rise.
Today's Market Outlook is Down to down sharply (-0.3% to -1.9%). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is sharply negative, and the signal from the news is moderately negative. Markets are expected to drop up to 4% in the next few days. This may or may not all occur today.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with aggression and desperation. Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are the unexpected, chaos, protests and terrorist activity. The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has clearly broken below support. A sharp drop in the markets of up to 4% is expected in the next few days. It may or may not all happen today.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down. The overall market trend should be down.
Today’s social mood signal is -11.6 S&P points (-32.2 S&P points for the entire weekend Saturday through Monday). Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Signal has clearly broken below support. Markets should soon follow with a sharp break down.
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Today’s news signal is -1.9 S&P points (-5.2 S&P points the entire weekend Saturday through Monday). News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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Today's expected stock market range is calculated from -5.2 S&P points (news signal for Saturday through Monday) to -32.2 S&P points (social mood signal for Saturday through Monday), or-0.3% to -1.9%.
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