Shutdown-- Explanations and Posturing: Outlook 12 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P +10.6 (+0.6%); Today we have had a lot of talking, as the collective mood indicated we would.  The latest breaking news: "Obama and Boehner talk by phone, and the speaker's spokesman says, 'agreed that we should all keep talking.'"  

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Overview:  A U.S. government shutdown is in day 11, and participants should be continuing to posture from an aggressive position, with increasing communication and information being passed back and forth between parties and to the general public.  Social mood reflects a desperate aggressiveness.  The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, and an increase in communications or information.  The stock market's bounce should turn back down momentarily (if not today, then early next week).  It's possible that the named reason for the turn down, when it does occur, could be something other than the shutdown.  Today's markets should be consolidating and may be slightly up.

Today's Market Outlook is Slightly Up (+0.5% to +0.8%).  At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the signal from the news are moderately positive.  Today's gains may turn out to be less than the model predicts due to yesterday's large move (markets are overbought per the model), thus "slightly up" is given as the description.   
 

Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with desperate forward pushing, as well as trying not to appear weak or vulnerable.  Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are uncertainty, confusion, and communication or information.  The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.

 

Near term market outlook: The bounce in mood due to speculation that the U.S. government impasse might be on its way to a solution, is expected to be over by early next week.

 

Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down.  The overall market trend should be down. 

 

Today’s social mood signal is +7.2 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 

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Today’s news signal is +2.5 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Model inputs and outputs: Today's expected stock market range is from the Market Mood Model outputs of +15.8 S&P points (social mood signal) to +15.3 S&P points (news signal), or +0.9% to +0.93%.

 

MoodCompass Social Mood score input: NE 19.8  SW 42  SE 22.5  NW 15.7

MoodCompass News score input: NE 26.1  SW 21.1  SE 31.6  NW 21.3

 

Social Mood scores from these Google Hot Trends: Glee, Kanye West, Alice Munro, Detroit Tigers, and Chicago Bears.

 

News scores from U.S. news stories on: Private charity to cover fallen troops' death benefits during shutdown, Obama, GOP Open Talks Over Temporary Debt Fix, Utah's national parks will reopen despite ongoing government shutdown, Ariel Castro possibly died from 'autoerotic asphyxiation': report, and Ex-Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick sentenced to 28 years in prison for corruption.