after market update: actual S&P -16.49 (-0.97%); Markets started down about 1%, then moved sideways.
Special Note: We have made a correction to our charts over the last two days (see explanation) that has social mood at support. Any deterioration in social mood from here will likely result in a sharp drop in mood and markets. Tomorrow is critical.
Let's hope this news story is it as far as the sacrifice/terror theme: Gunshots fired at US Capitol after car rammed barrier near White House.
Apparently there was more: US Capitol shooting: Connecticut woman shot dead outside Capitol was ...
And here's the sacrifice with the budget/debt crisis: Boehner Pledges to Avoid Default, Republicans Say
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 3, and there is likely to be a pickup in chatter and public appeals along ideological lines. Social mood reflects appearing righteous, group ideologies, and also self-sacrifice. The mood depicted by themes in the news is extreme polarization, lines in the sand, and us versus them. The mood is changing in a direction that would lead to meaningful negotiations. If this is primarily expressed in the context of the shutdown drama, it could be reflecting one side appearing willing to sacrifice for the "good of the team." However, this mood configuration also shows up in association with terrorist attacks, especially when the initiating party does not intend to survive. Markets are expected to soon finish a corrective bounce and turn down. This may or may not occur today, and news may be a catalyst.
Today's Market Outlook is Near unchanged to turning down sharply (-0.2% to +0.2%). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is slightly positive, and the signal from the news is barely negative. Markets are expected to soon finish a corrective bounce and turn down sharply. This may or may not occur today. The primary influence on today's outlook is what is presented in the paragraphs below on near term mood outlook and near term market outlook.
Special Note: We have made a correction to our charts over the last two days (see explanation) that has social mood at support. Any deterioration in social mood from here will likely result in a sharp drop in mood and markets. Tomorrow is critical.
Let's hope this news story is it as far as the sacrifice/terror theme: Gunshots fired at US Capitol after car rammed barrier near White House.
Apparently there was more: US Capitol shooting: Connecticut woman shot dead outside Capitol was ...
And here's the sacrifice with the budget/debt crisis: Boehner Pledges to Avoid Default, Republicans Say
- - -
Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 3, and there is likely to be a pickup in chatter and public appeals along ideological lines. Social mood reflects appearing righteous, group ideologies, and also self-sacrifice. The mood depicted by themes in the news is extreme polarization, lines in the sand, and us versus them. The mood is changing in a direction that would lead to meaningful negotiations. If this is primarily expressed in the context of the shutdown drama, it could be reflecting one side appearing willing to sacrifice for the "good of the team." However, this mood configuration also shows up in association with terrorist attacks, especially when the initiating party does not intend to survive. Markets are expected to soon finish a corrective bounce and turn down. This may or may not occur today, and news may be a catalyst.
Today's Market Outlook is Near unchanged to turning down sharply (-0.2% to +0.2%). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is slightly positive, and the signal from the news is barely negative. Markets are expected to soon finish a corrective bounce and turn down sharply. This may or may not occur today. The primary influence on today's outlook is what is presented in the paragraphs below on near term mood outlook and near term market outlook.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with righteousness, group ideologies, and self-sacrifice. Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are polarization, destruction, disasters, and government intervention. The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.
Near term market outlook: Social mood (and markets) may be in process of completing a near term bounce. When this bounce is complete, mood (and markets) may once again drop down to test support.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend has turned down, but not definitively. Confirmation of a continuation of the long term downtrend has not yet occurred.
Today’s social mood signal is +3.3 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Signal is near support, the next few days are critical to direction.
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Today’s news signal is -0.3 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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Today's expected stock market range is primarily based on the mood pattern itself. The calculated range from signals would be -0.3 S&P points (news signal) to +3.3 S&P points (social mood signal) or -0.1% to +0.2%. As a polarity flip is in progress with social mood, the range is given as -0.2% to +0.2%.
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