after market update: actual S&P -8.7 (-0.5%); Markets did turn down today, accelerating after the FOMC meeting as bonds sold off and interest rates climbed. The "disaster or terrorist activity" may be later this week.
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Overview: Social mood appears to be deteriorating, and reflects both aggressiveness and instability. The themes in the news are associated with the perception of destruction, deterioration, or disaster. Mood is turning sharply down, markets are likely to follow. Whether it happens today, or in a few days, something abrupt and tragic is near.
Today's Market Outlook is turning down to sharply down (-0.1% to -1.1%); While the news signal is near unchanged at the time of this posting, the social mood signal is sharply down.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with violence and instability. The mood themes found in the news are associated with destruction, deterioration, or disaster. The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, protests, and terrorist activity. An abrupt change and something of a tragic nature is indicated as a highly likely occurrence.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal is turning down from the resistance area (see this post for more info). Markets should either pause or turn down sharply from here.
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in what appears to be a topping process all year. There are no clear signals that this process will be over anytime soon. Yet, a sharp drop of more than 10%, just around the corner, is indicated by long term mood and market charts.
Today’s social mood signal is -18.3 S&P points as of the time of this posting. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
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Today’s news signal is -0.9 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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