after market update: actual S&P +5.7 (+0.33%); While social mood and markets are in step with trend, we may have to wait another day or so for mood and markets to be in sync on a daily basis.
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Overview: Today's social mood indicates a tired optimism; the mood from themes in the news shows a tired mania. While there still may be another big push up in the markets in the next day or so, the mood is near ready to shift and the markets with that. Today should be another day of ambiguity in the markets. They may start one way and end another, for example.
Today's Market Outlook is Mixed or Down (0% to +0.6%); Both social mood and news signals are negative today. If mood and markets are back in sync again, markets will be down today.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with people who are tired of how things have been, tired of aggression, arguing and uncertainty. The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and geopolitical escalation.
Near term market outlook: Social mood has gone past resistance and may continue to climb until the next area of resistance which is almost immediately ahead. There should be at least one more large surge ahead in the next day or two. Following that, the mood and the markets my turn back down.
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend is down. When the current bounce is over, markets should be turning down and joining mood in a period of decline.
Today’s social mood signal is -10 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
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Today’s news signal is -0.8 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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