after market update: actual S&P -20.6 (-1.23%); Markets just went down today. The president's speech on the government shut down didn't slow it down, and perhaps made it worse.
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 8, and participants are concerned with damage control to image and political capital. Social mood reflects both a desperate aggression and an unwillingness to appear weak or vulnerable. The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, confusion, and an effort not to be seen as irrational or delusional. The stock market appears to be heading toward the 1630 support line. It may or may not get all the way there today.
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 8, and participants are concerned with damage control to image and political capital. Social mood reflects both a desperate aggression and an unwillingness to appear weak or vulnerable. The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, confusion, and an effort not to be seen as irrational or delusional. The stock market appears to be heading toward the 1630 support line. It may or may not get all the way there today.
Today's Market Outlook is Near unchanged to down (-0.1% to -0.5%). At the time of this posting, the social mood signal is negative, and the signal from the news is slightly negative.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with desperate aggression and a refusal to appear weak or vulnerable in any way. Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are mania, uncertainty, protests, terrorist activity, and an effort not to be seen as irrational or delusional. The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.
Near term market outlook: The social mood signal has clearly broken below support, Markets should be close behind. The social mood signal appears not to have gone below the 1630 support line of the S&P.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down. The overall market trend should be down.
Today’s social mood signal is -8.2 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Signal has clearly broken below support. Markets should soon follow with a sharp break down.
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Today’s news signal is -1.4 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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Model inputs and outputs: Today's expected stock market range is from the Market Mood Model outputs of -1.4 S&P points (news signal) to -8.2 S&P points (social mood signal), or -0.1% to -0.5%.
MoodCompass Social Mood score input: NE 17.3 SW 39.9 SE 22.5 NW 20.4
MoodCompass News score input: NE 23.2 SW 25.1 SE 31.4 NW 20.2
Social Mood scores from these Google Hot Trends: Raiders, Scarlett Johansson, Detroit Tigers, Red Sox, and President's Cup streaker
News scores from U.S. news stories on: Brown vetoes bill to allow non-citizens on juries, Senate Leaders Mull Raising Debt Ceiling in Challenge to House, Steubenville rape case: New arrest, jail without bond, Charges Expected in Wash. Soldier's Fatal Stabbing, and Fast-moving storms bring heavy rain, high winds to Northeast, delaying flights
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