Friday, October 25, 2013

The Last Big Hurrah! - Outlook 25 Oct. '13

after market update: actual S&P +7.5 (+0.43%); Looks like social mood is back in sync on trend and for the day.  Turning process may be near completion.  Next week could be interesting!


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Overview: It may not be the most exuberant hurrah ever, but today's social mood indicates a near ending of chapter, and with a slightly positive note.  The markets today should end on a fairly positive note. 

Today's Market Outlook is Up! (0.1% to +0.6%);  Both social mood and news signals are positive today.  Mood and markets should be back in sync again, the evidence will be up markets.
 
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with an ending of a chapter.  The mood themes found in the news show an assumption that in spite of an unsteady economy, the government at least has the markets covered (literally, the greed and power people).  The combined pattern of news and social mood, at times, accompanies global themes of instability, protests, and terrorist activity.
 
Near term market outlook: Social mood is just about at resistance, so it will have a difficult time climbing past where it is.  Markets should likewise run into a ceiling either today or early next week.
 
Longer term outlook: The overall social mood trend has been in a topping process all year.  When the current bounce is over, markets should be turning down and joining mood in a period of decline. 
 
Today’s social mood signal is +1.9 S&P points.  Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. 
 
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Today’s news signal is +10.0 S&P points.  News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    
 
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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. 

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