after market update: actual S&P +36.1 (+2.2%); We were right on with the mood, and the shutdown progress, but did not get the market rally, which was straight up. The larger mood trend is still down, so the rally should be short-lived.
P.M update: After Obama and Republican leadership met, S&P futures dropped sharply. See news: Obama rejects GOP proposal for short-term debt limit plan
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 10, and participants are continuing to posture from an aggressive position, yet trying not to look too unreasonable or irrational. Social mood reflects a desperate aggressiveness. The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, and an effort not to be seen as irrational or delusional. The stock market's brief bounce should turn back down momentarily. It's possible that the named reason for the turn down, when it does occur, could be something other than the shutdown.
P.M update: After Obama and Republican leadership met, S&P futures dropped sharply. See news: Obama rejects GOP proposal for short-term debt limit plan
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Overview: A U.S. government shutdown is in day 10, and participants are continuing to posture from an aggressive position, yet trying not to look too unreasonable or irrational. Social mood reflects a desperate aggressiveness. The mood depicted by themes in the news is uncertainty, and an effort not to be seen as irrational or delusional. The stock market's brief bounce should turn back down momentarily. It's possible that the named reason for the turn down, when it does occur, could be something other than the shutdown.
Today's Market Outlook is Down (-0.3% to -0.4%). At the time of this posting, both the social mood signal and the signal from the news are negative.
Near term mood outlook: The social mood pattern corresponds with desperate aggressiveness, and trying not to appear weak or vulnerable. Common themes associated with the mood pattern found in the news are uncertainty, confusion, and an effort not to be seen as irrational or delusional. The combined pattern, at times, accompanies global themes of violence, instability, and terrorist activity.
Near term market outlook: The brief bounce in mood due to speculation that the U.S. government impasse might be on its way to a solution, is about over. At the time of this posting futures are up almost 1/2%. Yet, the social mood signal has turned down and has breached 1650 S&P. Markets are expected to soon do the same.
Longer term outlook: The social mood trend is down. The overall market trend should be down.
Today’s social mood signal is -4.3 S&P points. Markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.
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Today’s news signal is -5.9 S&P points. News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market. Is there some really bad news ahead?
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Model inputs and outputs: Today's expected stock market range is from the Market Mood Model outputs of -4.3 S&P points (social mood signal) to -5.9 S&P points (news signal), or -0.3% to -0.4%.
MoodCompass Social Mood score input: NE 21.5 SW 36.2 SE 22.4 NW 20.0
MoodCompass News score input: NE 24.8 SW 21.1 SE 29.2 NW 24.9
Social Mood scores from these Google Hot Trends: American Horror Story, Hayden Panettiere, Thomas Hertl, St. Louis Cardinals, and Malala Yousafzai
News scores from U.S. news stories on: Lawyer says video key for NYPD undercover officer, Shutdown Standoff Shows Signs of a Thaw, US to partially cut aid to Egypt, Missing patient found, and Ex-officer firing at courthouse dies
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