Party's about Over: Outlook 14 Feb '14

after market update: actual S&P +8.81  Markets are seriously overbought.  Will the rally continue much longer?  Watch for the update Monday near 12am ET.

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Overview:  Collective mood indicates the ending of a chapter, and a struggle to hold onto optimism that looks about to be lost.  Mood signals for the day indicate a sell off in the markets is likely.  We've been watching for a high impact U.S. disaster or tragic event since late January.  Will the current ice storm have enough impact to get us out of this disaster zone, or will pressure continue to build only to erupt in something bigger?  We will know in a few days.

Near Term: While markets have rallied quite a bit in the past few days, social mood signals have been hovering in the 1740-1760 area (see Google trends chart below).  The mood signal is now just below support which may indicate an imminent break down.   

 

Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping.  Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress.  The impact of human and natural disasters has been relatively low, but the trend is toward increasing impact.  Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.

 

Today's Signals: -11.7 from Google Hot Trends, -1.4 from Themes in the News.  The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.

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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not.  Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.

 

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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.    

 

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Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories.  Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model.  The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change.  Stock market data source: Google Finance.  This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research.  It is not intended to be trading advice.