after market update: actual S&P +13.3 Markets bounced off the S&P 1740 level mentioned below, but the downturn is not likely over quite yet. A U.S. tragic event is imminent, and may coincide with a climax move of this market downturn.
Overview: Collective mood shows aggression and rising passions. Mood signals for the day indicate a continued selloff in the markets is likely. Markets are extremely oversold relative to daily social mood signals, indicating a climax may be near. A U.S. disaster or major tragic event is imminent (see 31 Jan. post), as the curve we have been waiting to top has recently peaked.
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories. Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model. The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. Stock market data source: Google Finance. This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research. It is not intended to be trading advice.
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Overview: Collective mood shows aggression and rising passions. Mood signals for the day indicate a continued selloff in the markets is likely. Markets are extremely oversold relative to daily social mood signals, indicating a climax may be near. A U.S. disaster or major tragic event is imminent (see 31 Jan. post), as the curve we have been waiting to top has recently peaked.
Near Term: The social mood trend had been turning down sharply, but after briefly bouncing off support has been scraping along it near S&P 1740 (see Google trends chart below). A climax followed by a near term bottom may be quickly approaching.
Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping. Long term indicators are flashing "extreme caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress. The impact of human and natural disasters is toward increasing impact. Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.
Today's Signals: -13.9 from Google Hot Trends, -5.0 from Themes in the News. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.
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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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