after market update: actual S&P -40.7 Markets were sharply down, and are now extremely oversold versus social mood signals. A U.S. tragic event is imminent, and may coincide with a climax move of this market downturn.
Overview: Collective mood shows aggression and rising passions. Mood signals for the day indicate a mild rally in the markets is likely, although strong forces are pulling in two directions. A U.S. disaster or major tragic event is imminent (see 31 Jan. post), as the curve we have been waiting to top has just peaked.
Note: data for U.S. social mood are scores in eight MoodCompass categories of Google Hot Trends, data for news are scores of top Google U.S. news stories. Scores are converted to 4 inputs to the Market Mood Model. The output is a conversion of mood data to estimated S&P point change. Stock market data source: Google Finance. This is posted as a public service, and to enhance exposure to our research. It is not intended to be trading advice.
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Overview: Collective mood shows aggression and rising passions. Mood signals for the day indicate a mild rally in the markets is likely, although strong forces are pulling in two directions. A U.S. disaster or major tragic event is imminent (see 31 Jan. post), as the curve we have been waiting to top has just peaked.
Near Term: Global mood trends imply a profound transformation in the global landscape taking place in the background. It may be another few days to a few weeks to know all that this is pointing to. The social mood trend had been turning down sharply, but after briefly bouncing off support has been scraping along it (see Google trends chart below). This mild bounce may be nearly complete, but until the mood signal breaks out of this sideways pattern near term trend of social mood (and markets) is unclear.
Long Term: Collective mood has been in a many month long process of topping. Long term indicators are flashing "caution," and are just below support, indicating a significant breakdown may be in progress. The impact of human and natural disasters is toward increasing impact. Over time, this may wear on both mood and socioeconomic stability.
Today's Signals: +13.2 from Google Hot Trends, -8.1 from Themes in the News. The projected stock market change for today is shown in the chart below.
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Mood signals from Google Hot Trends: On a daily basis, markets tend to follow social mood more often than not. Overall, social mood trend changes usually precede market trend changes.
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Mood signals from themes in the news: News tends to follow the general trend of the market, but on a daily basis, can either lead or lag the movement of the market.
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